SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Disturbance - Discussion

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SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Disturbance - Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:18 pm

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#2 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:45 am

Needs to be unarchived.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.0S 71.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF AN ELON-
GATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BURST OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE AND STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING CIRCU-
LATION ARE AIDING SPIN-UP THE CYCLONE. A 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL
OF ABOUT 2 MB AT DIEGO GARCIA FURTHER SUGGESTS RECENT
DEEPENING OF THIS NASCENT CIRCULATION. THE LLCC LIES NEAR
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVOR-
ABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE LACK OF A WELL-
CONSOLIDATED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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#3 Postby wyq614 » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:50 am

Euro supports its development, let's see...
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:24 pm

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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:33 pm

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:33 pm

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0S 71.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0S 71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A BURST OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING CIRCULATION ARE AIDING SPIN-UP
OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 151341Z SSMI IMAGE ALSO SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DIEGO
GARCIA CONTINUE TO SHOW 15-25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25-
35 KNOTS, AND 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1 MB. THE LLCC LIES NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD
AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:46 pm

15/2030 UTC 5.4S 70.2E T1.0/1.0 94S -- South Indian Ocean
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:01 pm

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Becoming better organized.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:07 pm

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0S 71.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6S 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 151714Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A BETTER DEFINED LLCC WITH 20-
25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND STRONGER, GRADIENT
ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM DIEGO GARCIA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD
DEVELOPING LOW WITH 20-25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KNOTS. THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, BUT HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-30 KNOTS). OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:50 am

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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:20 am

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#12 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:41 am

Now a Tropical Disturbance. Forecast to become the first named storm of the year.

WTIO30 FMEE 161244 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/16 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1S / 69.2E
(SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/17 00 UTC: 06.6S/69.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/17 12 UTC: 07.1S/68.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/18 00 UTC: 08.0S/68.0E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/10/18 12 UTC: 09.0S/67.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 10.0S/66.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 11.0S/65.2E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+

EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION STILL DEPENDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE (ENHANCING
DURING THE NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE DAY), THE IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION (WITH COMPACT CURVED BAND PATTERN) HAS PERSISTED RATHER WELL
DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS IMPROVING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE, DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE AND
SST ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTHWARDS, EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE ENFANCED BY THE ACTUAL WET PHASIS
OF MJO AND THE TWIN CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

AT THIS STAGE, THE INTESITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:06 pm

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WTXS21 PGTW 161630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.7S 69.7E TO 7.7S 66.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
161530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.8S
69.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6S
70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8S 68.7E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SHEARED AND STARTING TO WRAP INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161400Z SSMI IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH IMPROVED AND MORE INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 160421Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25-30 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC.
THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, BUT HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-30 KNOTS). OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 171630Z.//
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Re: SIO Tropical Disturbance 2 (94S): Discussion - TCFA

#14 Postby RattleMan » Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:45 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 161812

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2
2.A POSITION 2008/10/16 AT 1800 UTC :
5.7S / 68.8E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/17 06 UTC: 06.0S/68.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/17 18 UTC: 06.6S/68.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/18 06 UTC: 07.4S/67.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/18 18 UTC: 08.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/19 06 UTC: 09.4S/65.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 2:23 pm

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35 knots
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Re: SIO Tropical Disturbance 2 (94S): Discussion - TCFA

#16 Postby RattleMan » Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:28 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161621Z OCT 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 5.5S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 5.7S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 6.1S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 6.7S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 7.4S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 68.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN ORANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTED A 30-35 KNOT
SYSTEM AND RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35
KNOTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER WEAK COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENTS WITH WESTWARD
STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD STEERING FROM STRONG, LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES.
THEREFORE, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24.
THE COMPETING STEERING FLOWS HAVE LED TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WITH TWO GROUPINGS. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A
STRONGER SYSTEM. A NUMBER OF MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK
WITH A WEAK SYSTEM STEERING UNDER THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES (GFDN,
EGRR, NOGAPS). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 161621Z OCT 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 161630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
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Re: SIO Tropical Disturbance 2 (TC 01S): Discussion

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:46 pm

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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:31 pm

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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:46 pm

16/2030 UTC 5.5S 68.4E T2.5/2.5 01S -- South Indian Ocean
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:49 pm

Quite impressive considering its latitude.
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