SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Disturbance - Discussion

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#41 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:44 am

Okay, I get it now. 25 kt is max wind near centre, as in the Southern Hemisphere cyclones are scaled based on winds near centre and not in the overall circulation (compared to Atlantic). However, there are 30/35 kt winds elsewhere within those quadrants.
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 18, 2008 10:47 am

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#43 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:54 pm

ZCZC 871
WTIO30 FMEE 181809 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2
2.A POSITION 2008/10/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 67.0E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 200
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/19 06 UTC: 10.0S/65.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 11.3S/64.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.3S/62.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.8S/61.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.9S/59.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.8S/57.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
NNNN
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#44 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:57 pm

ZCZC 869
WTIO20 FMEE 181808
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/10/2008
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 18/10/2008 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 67.0E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY EXTENDS UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT AND ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTER LOCALLY
REACHING 30/35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER
WITHIN
A BELT LOCATED BETWEEN 60NM AND 120NM IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTORS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/10/19 AT 06 UTC:
10.0S / 65.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2008/10/19 AT 18 UTC:
11.3S / 64.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS STILL EXPOSED NORTHEAST
OF
THE THUNDERY ACTIVITY, BUT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTORS. THEY HAVE BEEN CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO SATELLITE
DATA.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY
SLOWLY.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO TWO/01S: Tropical Depression - Discussion

#45 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:36 pm

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#46 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:52 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2008 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 9:22:59 S Lon : 66:36:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.2mb/ 43.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.1 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -71.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#47 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:53 pm

Been re-upgraded from a disturbance to a depression.

WTIO30 FMEE 190045

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/19 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 66.4E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 11.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 12.2S/63.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.7S/61.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 12.8S/60.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.3S/58.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2008/10/22 00 UTC: 11.7S/55.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-

THE LLCC IS HARD TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IMAGERY, BUT SEEMS TO BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. THIS WINDSHEAR SHOULD KEEP ON SLIGHTLY DECREASING
WITHIN THE NEXT RANGES. SST ARE ABOUT 27/28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT
POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT UP TO NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION.

THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL
ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND
THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EASTERLIES, WHICH IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW AT TAU 36.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GLOBALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN TRACK
WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SCENARIO.
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Re: SIO TWO/01S: Tropical Depression - Discussion

#48 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:58 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2008 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 9:33:46 S Lon : 66:24:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.1 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#49 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:41 am

WTIO30 FMEE 190626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/19 AT 0600 UTC : 10.4S / 65.6E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 250 SO: 250 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 11.5S/64.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.4S/62.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.8S/61.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.9S/59.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.7S/58.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.2S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-

THE LLCC SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. THIS WINDSHEAR SHOULD KEEP ON SLIGHTLY DECREASING
WITHIN THE NEXT RANGES. SST ARE ABOUT 27/28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT
POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT UP TO NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION.

THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL
ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND
THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EASTERLIES, WHICH IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW UP TO TAU 36.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GLOBALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN TRACK
WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SCENARIO.
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Re:

#50 Postby Crostorm » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:51 am

Chacor wrote:
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 11.5S/64.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.


Is there a land!Where?
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#51 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 19, 2008 2:35 am

Good question. There isn't anything at those co-ordinates.
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#52 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:56 am

Image

Still exposed on VIS.

Image
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#53 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:20 am

A moderate tropical storm no longer forecast. Can still be named though, as it's not RSMC Réunion that handles the naming.

WTIO30 FMEE 191212
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 64.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 12.1S/62.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.5S/61.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 12.7S/59.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.6S/57.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/10/22 00 UTC: 12.3S/55.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/10/22 12 UTC: 12.1S/52.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5


THE LLCC SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PORRLY ORGANIZED.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS
BEEN DECREASING. SST ARE ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL
IS QUITE SUFFICIENT UP TO NORTH OF 12S), BUT BECOME COLDER SOUTHWARDS AND
WESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL
ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND
THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EASTERLIES, WHICH IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING FLOW UP TO TAU 36.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GLOBALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN TRACK
WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:20 am

19/1430 UTC 11.6S 63.9E T3.0/3.0 01S -- South Indian Ocean

First time beyond 2.5
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Re: SIO TWO/01S: Tropical Depression - Discussion

#55 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:43 am

Image

Image
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Re: SIO TWO/01S: Tropical Depression - Discussion

#56 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:59 pm

First named storm of the season.

WTIO30 FMEE 191818

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA)
2.A POSITION 2008/10/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3S / 63.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.1S/62.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.6S/60.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.6S/58.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.4S/56.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.3S/54.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 12.2S/51.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
RECENT METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SEE SSMIS AT 1514Z) SHOW AN
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION (WITH CURVED BAND PATTERN), DUE
TO THE WEAKENING OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LLCC IS IN BETTER PHASIS
WITH THE MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION, EVEN IF IT IS STILL A LITTLE BIT SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN HIGH LEVELS,THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAYS
(WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG AN AXIS OF A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST).
NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY AN INSUFFICIENT
OCEAN HEAT (SST ARE ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR THE MOMENT, NORTH OF
11SOUTH, BUT THEY SHOULD BE AT AROPUND 26 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF
12SOUTH).
ASMA SHOULD CURVE MORE WESTWARDS ITS TRACK, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, AND IT SHOULD TRACK
TOXWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
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#57 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 2:52 pm

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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 19, 2008 3:41 pm

A quick look at the last few seasons shows that this is the earliest forming named storm since Abaimba in 2003-2004 which was briefly a moderate tropical storm from 1/10/03 to 2/10/03. The TC season doesn't start until the 1st Nov so this is an early system.
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#59 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2008 4:12 pm

This would be like an April storm in the Atlantic.
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Re:

#60 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:28 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This would be like an April storm in the Atlantic.


I don't know how you can say that when the season here starts in 10 days' time.
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