SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Disturbance - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#81 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 5:30 am

Image

Bye!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#82 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:44 am

Image

Image

Back from the death!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

#83 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:51 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#84 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:51 am

The final warning from MF was issued at 06z.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#85 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:30 pm

PERTURBATION TROPICALE EX-ASMA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 22 OCTOBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.0 SUD / 50.5 EST
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1215 KM AU NORD-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 29 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 9.8S/47.4E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.2S/42.4E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#86 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 22, 2008 6:39 pm

Advisories are being issued again.

WTIO30 FMEE 221852

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA)
2.A POSITION 2008/10/22 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 50.5E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: SO: 150 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 10.3S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 09.8S/47.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/10/24 06 UTC: 10.7S/44.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/24 18 UTC: 10.2S/42.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/25 06 UTC: 09.3S/40.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
DESPITE REMANENT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOURS, DUE TO
LIGHTLY WARMER SSTS (26 TO 27 CELSIUS DEGREES) AND NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF CONVECTION.
THIS CIRCULATION REMAINS ASYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, AND TO THE
ACCELERATION NEAR THE MALAGASY COASTS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING HEAVY
RAINFALLS AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS (30 TO 35KT IN 10 MIN MEAN WINDS
) OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF THE ISLAND.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Disturbance - Discussion

#87 Postby Crostorm » Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:00 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#88 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:41 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 230035

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA)
2.A POSITION 2008/10/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 50.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/23 12 UTC: 11.0S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/24 00 UTC: 11.3S/45.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/10/24 12 UTC: 11.2S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/10/25 00 UTC: 10.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/10/25 12 UTC: 08.5S/36.4E DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5- ET CI=2.0
THE BURST OF "NOCTRUNAL" CONVECTION (CCC STRUCTURE) STARTED AT THE END OF
YESTERDAY, HAS EXPLOSED AND IS NOW SCATTERED AND NON ORGANIZED OVER THE
NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
THIS CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK AND ASYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, AND TO THE
ACCELERATION EFFECT NEAR THE MALAGASY COASTS.
THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALLS
AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS (30 TO 35KT) OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF THE
ISLAND DURING NEXT 24H.
IT SHOULD GENERATE VARIABLE THUNDERY ACTIVITY, MORE INTENSE DURING THE
NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE LOCATION AND THE INTENSITY OF THIS BADLY DEFINED LOW IS ESTIMATED
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LAST RELIABLE POSITION, BUT IS NOT
VERY PRECISE (BECAUSE THE TERRESTRIAL OBSERVATIONS DATA ARE NOT AVALAIBLE
).
AT THIS INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#89 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:04 am

WTIO30 FMEE 230623

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA)
2.A POSITION 2008/10/23 AT 0600 UTC :
10.7S / 49.9E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 11.5S/47.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/24 06 UTC: 11.8S/45.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2008/10/24 18 UTC: 11.3S/42.3E FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/10/25 06 UTC: 10.7S/40.3E OVERLAND.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5- ET CI=1.5
POSITION AT 0000Z RELOCATED NEAR 10.4S/50.8E (ONE DEGREE IN THE
NORTH-EAST).
THE CONVECTION BURST (CCC PATTERN) STARTED YESTERDAY EVENING, HAS
EXPLODED AND IS NOW SCATTERED AND INORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FLUCTUATING,
DEEPER DURING THE NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY.
THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED AND REMAINS WEAK AND ASYMETRIC, WITH STRONG
WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM (QUIKSCAT DATA 23/0311Z).
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARDS, GENERATING RAINFALLS -
LOCALLY THUNDERY RAINFALLS- AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 12H, AND THEN OVER THE COMOROS
ARCHIPELAGO DURING THE NIGHT AND THE 24TH, BEFORE LIKELY LANDFALLING NEAR
THE MOZAMBIC/TANZANIAN BORDERLINE DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE 24TH TO THE 25TH.
AT THIS INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests