SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Disturbance - Discussion

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#61 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:48 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 200030

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/2/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA)

2.A POSITION 2008/10/20 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 62.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.7S/61.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 12.9S/59.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.6S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/10/22 00 UTC: 12.5S/55.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/10/22 12 UTC: 12.5S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/10/23 00 UTC: 12.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-

ASMA IS STILL INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
.. MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AMSU-B AT 2104Z SHOWS A MIDLEVEL EYE BUILDING WITHIN
THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS STILL SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC
..

IN HIGH LEVELS,THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAYS
(WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG AN AXIS OF A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST).
NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY AN INSUFFICIENT
OCEAN HEAT (SST ARE ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR THE MOMENT, NORTH OF
11SOUTH, BUT THEY SHOULD BE AT AROPUND 26 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF
12SOUTH).

ASMA SHOULD CURVE MORE WESTWARDS ITS TRACK, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, AND IT SHOULD TRACK
TOXWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:52 pm

Image

19/2030 UTC 11.7S 63.1E T3.0/3.0 01S -- South Indian Ocean
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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:18 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Oct 19, 2008 9:10 pm

Does it need an inhaler? :wink:
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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:16 pm

20/0300 UTC 12.4S 62.2E T3.5/3.5 ASMA -- South Indian Ocean
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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:16 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Does it need an inhaler? :wink:


Breathing very well at the moment. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#67 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:33 pm

It looks like something somebody sneezed up.
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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#68 Postby Crostorm » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:21 am

WTIO30 FMEE 200621

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/2/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA)

2.A POSITION 2008/10/20 AT 0600 UTC :
12.7S / 61.8E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT


6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 350 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.9S/60.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.6S/58.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.2S/56.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.0S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 12.0S/51.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 12.2S/49.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-

WITH THE DECREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, ASMA HAS INTENSIFIED OVER LAST
NIGHT, REVEALING A BANDING EYE TYPE ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AQUA/2132Z
AND F17/0131Z, MID LEVEL CENTER REMAINING YET SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN,
LEADING TO
A DVORAK NUMBER T3.0.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON DECREASING DURING THE NEXT DAYS (AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS - RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST).
NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY AN INSUFFICIENT
OCEAN HEAT (SST ARE CURRETNLY ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS, NORTH OF 11S, BUT
THEY SHOULD BE AT AROUND 26 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 12S).

ASMA SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR.
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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#69 Postby Crostorm » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:56 am

Image
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#70 Postby Chacor » Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:20 am

WTIO30 FMEE 201234

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/2/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA)

2.A POSITION 2008/10/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 61.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 250 SO: 350 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 11.8S/59.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 11.6S/57.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/10/22 00 UTC: 11.4S/55.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/10/22 12 UTC: 11.5S/52.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/23 00 UTC: 11.9S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/10/23 12 UTC: 12.9S/47.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0+

THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AQUA 20/0939
REVEALS A LLCC CENTRE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS VERY LIMITED
IN SPATIAL COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON DECREASING DURING THE NEXT DAYS, AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS - RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BY
INSUFFICIENT SSTS (OF THE
ORDER OF 26oC). AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS, THE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL
DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY, ESSENTIALLY BEYOND
TAU24.

ASMA TRACKS WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:30 am

Image

I think she needs the inhaler now, cardiac arrest cannot be far from occurring!!!
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#72 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:56 am

Can you really expect an October storm in the southern hemisphere to do much? It is like April in the Atlantic...
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#73 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:01 am

It will be like May in the northern hemisphere and we have had major hurricanes (Alma) in the Atlantic in May.
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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#74 Postby Crostorm » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:57 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 201837 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA)

2.A POSITION 2008/10/20 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 61.4E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 300 SO: 400 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 11.7S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 11.5S/56.7E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 11.4S/54.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 11.6S/52.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 12.2S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 12.9S/47.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AQUA 20/0939
REVEALS A LLCC CENTRE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS VERY LIMITED
IN SPATIAL COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON DECREASING DURING THE NEXT DAYS, AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS - RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BY
INSUFFICIENT SSTS (OF THE
ORDER OF 26oC). AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS, THE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL
DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY, ESSENTIALLY BEYOND
TAU24.

ASMA TRACKS WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
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Re: SIO: ASMA: Moderate Tropical Storm - Discussion

#75 Postby Crostorm » Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:50 pm

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#76 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:37 pm

Might be too late to ask this....does anybody have a global sattelite shot showing both ASMA and 03A?
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#77 Postby Chacor » Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:17 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 210021

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/2/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA)
2.A POSITION 2008/10/21 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 60.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.1S/58.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/10/22 00 UTC: 12.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/10/22 12 UTC: 12.1S/52.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/23 00 UTC: 12.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/23 12 UTC: 12.7S/49.5E OVERLAND.
72H: 2008/10/24 00 UTC: 13.2S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=2.5+
THE SYSTEM IS NORDTHERLY SHEARED. CONSTRAINTE SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKEN AND
THE CENTER IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AQUA
20/1805 REVEALS A LLCC CENTRE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH REMAINS
VERY LIMITED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON DECREASING DURING THE NEXT DAYS, AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS - RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BY
INSUFFICIENT SSTS (OF THE
ORDER OF 26oC). AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS, THE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL
DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY, ESSENTIALLY BEYOND
TAU24.
ASMA TRACKS WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
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Re:

#78 Postby HurricaneRobert » Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:20 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Might be too late to ask this....does anybody have a global sattelite shot showing both ASMA and 03A?


This one:

Image
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Re:

#79 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Can you really expect an October storm in the southern hemisphere to do much? It is like April in the Atlantic...


Cyclone Xavier reached 115KT in the SPAC in October 2006.

Also, in October 1972, there was Cyclone Bebe.
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#80 Postby Crostorm » Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:26 am

Back to tropical depression

WTIO30 FMEE 210615

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ASMA)

2.A POSITION 2008/10/21 AT 0600 UTC :
12.1S / 59.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.1S/56.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.1S/54.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 12.1S/51.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 12.1S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 12.1S/47.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2008/10/24 06 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.5-

THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UNFAVORABLE
FACTORS : LACK OF OCEAN CONTENT HEAT (TOO COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPARATURES,
AT THE ORDER OF 26 CELSIUS DEGREES ONLY), INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
CONSTRAINT IN HIGH LEVEL, POOR LOW LEVEL WARM AND WET TROPICAL AIR INFLOW
IN THE NORTH
ERN PART.
SO, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS) IS WEAKENING AND IS
REJECTED SOUTHEASTWARD, FAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

THIS CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY DISYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS LOCATED ONLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAINLY FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO TNE INNER
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE MSLP (MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE) IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53579
BUOY, WHICH HAS BEEN "CROSSED" BY THE LOW AT 00 UTC.

THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD TOTALLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR.
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