ATL NANA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Chacor]

ABNT20 KNHC 100552
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ABOUT
700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

UK Met Office model output (WTNT80 EGRR) has been picking this up for a few days now.

[carolina_73]

Looks like it may be going fishing...

[HURAKAN]

Nice rotation.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS DECREASED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BERG

Code Orange!

[caribepr]

Fish would be good. I'm not going to put the dinghy back in the water yet, though!

[cycloneye]

As HURAKAN said,nice rotation.

[bvigal]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion? I think they've forgotten us this morning. It's usually up just after 7. Someone want to give them a yoo-hoo to let them know?

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion? I think they've forgotten us this morning. It's usually up just after 7. Someone want to give them a yoo-hoo to let them know?

you seems in better shape than their weather forecast

[bvigal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2008
...
A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT) NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE VERY
CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMIC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

Sure hope this NAM model is wrong!


(continuing from SJU Discussion)

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ACCORDINGLY TO THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TO THE FA BY LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL ESTABLISHED
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SITUATION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS OR NEAR THE LOCAL REGION
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS INDICATED BY LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE LAST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINS
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 97, 2008101012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 347W, 25, 1008, DB

[HURAKAN]

Taking shape.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 012045.GIF

The circulation is impossible to miss.

[bvigal]

That's for sure!
[URL=http://imageshack.us][/

[Sanibel]

Unseasonable CV belt spinning disturbance acting more like September than October. WNW-heading under easterly flow.

Could have something here this time.

How the early winter storm over the west affects this I don't know.

I think we've found GFS's storm!

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 101735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 101751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 97, 2008101018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 358W, 25, 1008, DB

Yes,below 10n,and that is a very interesting low latitud position that all who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands have to watch this system to see if it approaches them,or it goes with the fishes.

[Gustywind]

18:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 97, 2008101018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 358W, 25, 1008, DB

Yes,below 10n,and that is a very interesting low latitud position that all who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands have to watch this system to see if it approaches them,or it goes with the fishes.

Absolutely Cycloneye you're 100% right, hope it will be a fish but i don't like the 9,9 north lattitude imagine if this system were at 45,8w? something to watch as it races west or wnw. Seems that winds upper levels winds should abate given the projections for next week given many sites...another reason to monitor carefully this feature in the next couple of days for us in the East Carib!