ATL NANA: Models

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:39 am

100624
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0624 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20081010 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081010 0600 081010 1800 081011 0600 081011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 34.0W 11.0N 36.6W 11.8N 39.0W 12.6N 41.3W
BAMD 10.0N 34.0W 10.9N 35.9W 11.9N 37.2W 12.7N 38.2W
BAMM 10.0N 34.0W 10.9N 36.0W 11.8N 37.7W 12.6N 39.1W
LBAR 10.0N 34.0W 10.9N 35.7W 11.7N 37.3W 12.6N 38.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081012 0600 081013 0600 081014 0600 081015 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 43.1W 14.4N 46.7W 16.1N 49.5W 18.7N 52.1W
BAMD 13.5N 39.0W 14.9N 40.6W 17.6N 41.9W 20.2N 43.0W
BAMM 13.3N 40.2W 14.7N 42.6W 16.7N 44.5W 19.2N 46.4W
LBAR 13.4N 40.2W 13.8N 42.4W 15.3N 43.7W 16.5N 44.4W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 54KTS 49KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 54KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 34.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 32.1W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 7.9N LONM24 = 30.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Chacor · #2 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:48 am

WTNT80 EGRR 100456

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2008

<Norbert and Odile snipped out>

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.9N 38.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2008 9.9N 38.4W WEAK
12UTC 11.10.2008 10.3N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2008 12.6N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2008 13.3N 41.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2008 13.8N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2008 14.4N 43.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2008 15.1N 43.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2008 16.3N 44.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2008 17.4N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2008 18.8N 46.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.10.2008 20.4N 48.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:04 am

WHXX01 KWBC 101257
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20081010 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081010 1200 081011 0000 081011 1200 081012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 34.7W 11.2N 37.5W 12.1N 40.3W 13.0N 42.5W
BAMD 10.3N 34.7W 11.3N 36.4W 12.3N 37.7W 13.2N 38.6W
BAMM 10.3N 34.7W 11.3N 36.6W 12.3N 38.3W 13.3N 39.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081012 1200 081013 1200 081014 1200 081015 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 44.5W 14.6N 48.0W 16.2N 51.0W 18.7N 52.8W
BAMD 14.0N 39.3W 15.5N 41.0W 18.6N 42.0W 21.3N 41.9W
BAMM 14.1N 40.8W 15.6N 43.3W 17.9N 45.2W 20.8N 46.8W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 51KTS 46KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 51KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 34.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 33.1W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 31.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Ed Mahmoud · #4 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:43 am

Getting a little too late to make it to North America or vicinity...

If the high amplitude trough East of Bermuda doesn't catch it, the high amplitude trough coming off the East Coast will...

In my unofficial opinion, of course.

#5 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:19 am

So, could this be the low that was on the GFS at beginning of week, that I posted over in TT?

#6 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:34 am

Yeah, if I was in North America would probably be ignoring this.
Been looking at models at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Everybody shows at least SOMETHING going on in the Atlantic except the 6z GFS. Hope that one is correct and all the others are wrong!! Is that wishcasting? Shoot me!

CMC: 2008101000
GFS: 2008101006 (nothing)
MM5FSU(GFSInit): 2008081012
MM5FSU(GFSGFDLInit): 2008081012
NGP: 2008101000
UKM: 2008101006

Ed Mahmoud · #7 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:40 am

I consider the British and USVI, and neighboring islands, as being in the vicinity of North America. Well, you might actually be closer to South America.

But with the deep troughs, not to mention the models showing a bend North, I think this is likely a true fish storm, only exception maybe being Bermuda. I'm not like that guy on the Hurricane Kyle thread that said it was a fish storm because it hit Canada instead of the US.

I think the main threat to the BVI this late would be a SW Caribbean system that heads out North or Northeast, ie, approaches from the West or South. Earlier runs of the Euro did that for SW Caribbean storm, but latest runs on that say Central America.

#8 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:19 am

Ed, my words mis-interpreted so I'm posting this. I did not say I don't believe our area has a low probability for a storm this late in the year. That is so abundently obvious, in historical records, climatology, it doesn't need stating.

I said "If I was in North America, I might be ignoring this." Since I'm NOT in NA, since the NHC has upgraded this to 20-50% probability of development, models show something, and since I personally remember some late-season storms here in my neighborhood, even if there's a 1% chance of it getting this far west, I do not intend to ignore it. Instead, I will watch until I'm satisfied that it has turned north, or fizzled.

Thank you very much for your concern over what should (and should not) concern me.

October origins:

(Edit - added to picture to show where BVI/VI located)

Gustywind · #9 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:26 am

bvigal wrote:Ed, my words mis-interpreted so I'm posting this. I did not say I don't believe our area has a low probability for a storm this late in the year. That is so abundently obvious, in historical records, climatology, it doesn't need stating.

I said "If I was in North America, I might be ignoring this." Since I'm NOT in NA, since the NHC has upgraded this to 20-50% probability of development, models show something, and since I personally remember some late-season storms here in my neighborhood, even if there's a 1% chance of it getting this far west, I do not intend to ignore it. Instead, I will watch until I'm satisfied that it has turned north, or fizzled.

Thank you very much for your concern over what should (and should not) concern me.

October origins:

Excellent post, you make sense and brigthness, i appreciate. I remember José in October 1999 and just one month after Lenny, so as you well said it "even if there's a 1% chance of it getting this far west, I do not intend to ignore it. Instead, I will watch until I'm satisfied that it has turned north, or fizzled".
We never know as the season is not finished, we should not let our GUARD DOWN, so wait and see...

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:36 pm

12z HWRF has a moderate Tropical Storm that moves NW but by the end of run it turns more WNW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

12z GFDL has it at maximun intensity at 71kts.It moves northward as a fish storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:58 pm

SHIP at 18:00 UTC now forecasts a hurricane.

WHXX01 KWBC 101847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20081010 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081010 1800 081011 0600 081011 1800 081012 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 35.8W 10.9N 37.9W 11.9N 39.9W 12.7N 41.5W
BAMD 9.9N 35.8W 10.7N 37.5W 11.5N 38.9W 12.2N 40.0W
BAMM 9.9N 35.8W 10.7N 37.7W 11.5N 39.4W 12.2N 40.8W
LBAR 9.9N 35.8W 10.6N 37.4W 11.4N 39.1W 12.2N 40.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081012 1800 081013 1800 081014 1800 081015 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 42.9W 14.7N 45.8W 16.7N 48.6W 19.1N 51.0W
BAMD 12.8N 41.1W 14.2N 43.5W 16.7N 46.1W 19.9N 48.6W
BAMM 12.7N 42.1W 14.0N 44.8W 16.0N 47.2W 18.4N 49.4W
LBAR 13.0N 41.5W 14.8N 43.1W 17.7N 43.7W 19.7N 43.9W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 52KTS 63KTS 68KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 35.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 33.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 32.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#12 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 6:52 pm

Well, if it's going to climb 10 degrees north in 120 hrs, it needs to stop with the 275degree direction of travel and speed up above 9kt. I want this thing to be at 15N before it crosses 45W!! :roll:

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 7:58 pm

Moving at 310 degrees.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20081011 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081011 0000 081011 1200 081012 0000 081012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 36.3W 12.2N 38.1W 13.4N 39.8W 14.2N 41.5W
BAMD 11.0N 36.3W 12.1N 37.6W 13.1N 38.4W 13.9N 39.0W
BAMM 11.0N 36.3W 12.1N 37.9W 13.2N 39.1W 14.1N 40.3W
LBAR 11.0N 36.3W 12.2N 37.5W 13.5N 38.6W 14.3N 39.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081013 0000 081014 0000 081015 0000 081016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 43.0W 16.6N 46.3W 19.1N 49.2W 23.0N 51.8W
BAMD 14.5N 39.6W 16.9N 40.8W 19.9N 40.9W 20.8N 42.1W
BAMM 14.8N 41.5W 16.6N 43.6W 19.3N 45.2W 22.2N 47.3W
LBAR 15.1N 39.9W 17.3N 40.7W 20.0N 40.9W 20.8N 42.9W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 45KTS 46KTS
DSHP 42KTS 46KTS 45KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 36.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 34.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 33.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

#14 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:52 am

That's more like it! :?:

Also, did you notice, Luis, the changes from older best track positions? Now seems it's been moving steadily more N after all.

Originally issued ----------------Now
1800 UTC - 09.9N 35.8W -----10.3N 36.0W
1200 UTC - 10.3N 34.7W -----09.9N 34.9W
0600 UTC - 10.0N 34.0W -----09.8N 33.9W

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 3:13 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 122006
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2006 UTC SUN OCT 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN (AL142008) 20081012 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081012 1800 081013 0600 081013 1800 081014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 37.7W 17.1N 39.6W 18.0N 41.7W 18.9N 43.5W
BAMD 16.4N 37.7W 17.0N 37.8W 18.2N 37.6W 19.9N 36.8W
BAMM 16.4N 37.7W 17.0N 38.8W 17.7N 39.9W 18.7N 40.9W
LBAR 16.4N 37.7W 16.9N 38.2W 17.7N 38.8W 19.0N 39.3W
SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS 25KTS
DSHP 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081014 1800 081015 1800 081016 1800 081017 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 45.4W 23.1N 49.3W 30.4N 52.1W 38.4N 48.1W
BAMD 21.2N 35.7W 19.9N 34.3W 16.8N 35.4W 14.0N 37.4W
BAMM 19.7N 42.0W 21.8N 44.2W 24.4N 46.6W 29.7N 46.1W
LBAR 20.5N 39.6W 22.3N 40.3W 22.0N 42.2W 21.0N 43.3W
SHIP 22KTS 16KTS 0KTS 16KTS
DSHP 22KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 36.6W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:05 pm

743
WHXX01 KWBC 130052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANA (AL142008) 20081013 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081013 0000 081013 1200 081014 0000 081014 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 38.5W 17.2N 40.2W 18.1N 42.0W 18.9N 43.7W
BAMD 16.5N 38.5W 17.3N 38.4W 18.9N 37.8W 20.3N 36.5W
BAMM 16.5N 38.5W 17.0N 39.6W 17.9N 40.6W 18.7N 41.7W
LBAR 16.5N 38.5W 17.2N 39.0W 18.3N 39.3W 19.6N 39.5W
SHIP 35KTS 33KTS 30KTS 27KTS
DSHP 35KTS 33KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081015 0000 081016 0000 081017 0000 081018 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 45.4W 23.1N 49.8W 29.9N 52.8W 36.8N 46.8W
BAMD 20.6N 35.4W 18.6N 35.2W 15.3N 37.6W 12.8N 40.6W
BAMM 19.6N 42.7W 21.6N 45.2W 25.3N 47.9W 32.0N 45.8W
LBAR 20.8N 39.8W 21.9N 40.8W 21.4N 42.7W 20.7N 43.3W
SHIP 26KTS 24KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 26KTS 24KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 38.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 37.1W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 36.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#17 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z HWRF has a moderate Tropical Storm that moves NW but by the end of run it turns more WNW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

12z GFDL has it at maximun intensity at 71kts.It moves northward as a fish storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Not this time?

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