ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

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ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:35 pm

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al982008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810112024
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2008, DB, O, 2008101118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982008
AL, 98, 2008101018, , BEST, 0, 106N, 620W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101100, , BEST, 0, 111N, 628W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101106, , BEST, 0, 116N, 634W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 641W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101118, , BEST, 0, 125N, 649W, 20, 1006, DB,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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#2 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:50 pm

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection always a bit disorganized but popping everywhere....consequently all carib islands should experience wet weather conditions... :eek: :roll:
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#3 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:53 pm

From a correspondant of St. Lucia on the weather site of stormcarib...
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml
- - St.Lucia - -
- non stop rain
From: Chris Jenkins <chris at redmanstlucia.com>
Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:00:34 -0400

We've had continuous heavy, at time torrential, rain for the past 16 hours. Few people are moving from their homes to go anywhere and in a short and curtailed journey we made earlier, we were forced back as the roads were impassable - proved by marooned cars and smaller SUVs, whose engines had been drowned in dips in the road that had become small lakes. I took a walk earlier and from a 240 degree viewpoint, saw only a solitary truck moving


On Thursday I expressed concern about this tropical wave, given the rainfall we've had in recent weeks and the rise of the water table. Our back garden, is flat and resembles a series of ponds. I suspect there have been homes flooded and local landslides in some areas but there is no news of this at present. I spent an hour or more digging up sections of the garden to divert water from our flood drain, which was at its limit around 11.00am. Without this work, we would certainly seen the water pour into our house. The road to here is also little better than a river and we should all stop waiting for someone else to clear the road drains at this time of year and as neighbours work together on it.


Very little wind, so even though it seems the worst of this rain has passed (I hope!) we are set for a few more hours of this weather yet as the front moves ever so slowly west. I'm surprised at how strange local people find it to have so much thunder and lightning. Right now, the rain has stopped although the satellite pics suggest we have a while to go before we're clear

Chris Jenkins
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby msbee » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:53 pm

well, Luis you were right, when you said "not yet"
and it didn't take them long to call it an invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:BEGIN
NHC
invest_al982008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810112024
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2008, DB, O, 2008101118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982008
AL, 98, 2008101018, , BEST, 0, 106N, 620W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101100, , BEST, 0, 111N, 628W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101106, , BEST, 0, 116N, 634W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 641W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2008101118, , BEST, 0, 125N, 649W, 20, 1006, DB,

Any link for that Cycloneye please? Tkanks a lot :) Gustywind :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:57 pm

Gustywind,I forgot to post the link :roll: but is now at the first post of the thread. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby msbee » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:58 pm

I didn't realize the center was so far south
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#8 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:58 pm

Another one ( correspondant) more souther, theirs neighbours...
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stvincent.shtml


- St.Vincent & Grenadines - -

- The rains keepon comin'
From: colvin harry <colvinharry at yahoo.co.uk>
Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 19:03:57 +0000 (GMT)

Hey folks,

Its been three days now of rain and occasional thunderstorms here in st vincent yesterday was mostly wet with a few peeks of sunshine then the rain returned.This morning woke up to pouring rain and gusty winds, looking at satellite pics seems its going to continue here for a while more maybe through tomorrow i notice st Lucia Martinique and Dominica all engulfed in heavy convective clouds.

So far no reported landslides or river overflowing banks yet but we do hope this doesnt happen.

On another Non Weather related note..the crime situation seems to be getting worst here.. i was saddened to learn this morning that a member of my extended family was brutally raped at her home last night and her husband was beaten..he died this morning at the Milton Cato Memorial Hospital and she is in critical condition at hospital.It saddens me to think of how cruel some people can be in this world.May she recover soon and may his soul rest in peace.


I will update you if the weather situation deteriorates or improves as time goes by


Stay safe!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:00 pm

msbee wrote:well, Luis you were right, when you said "not yet"
and it didn't take them long to call it an invest.


When I see lots of convection in an area I become suspisious of it and here is the invest.Now we will have to watch this for cyclone formation apart from the rain event that the islands haved been thru and will continue for the next couple of days or maybe more.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Gustywind,I forgot to post the link :roll: but is now at the first post of the thread. :)

Ok tkanks , no problem ypu try do to your best and be informative you cannot be always perfect in terms of lisibity, it's not a competition... Humm what's the weather like en la isla del encanto? Seems that given the latest sat pic convection is approaching steadily your area and thus right now, what the weather conditions in your area? :)
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#11 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:13 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
Latest from NRL site :uarrow:
:rarrow: 12,5 north 64,9 west winds 20 kts 2015 UTC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby captain east » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:14 pm

Doesn't matter that much, because the tracks would definitly change if this became anything more than a wave, but here are some models.

ImageImage
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby jinftl » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:15 pm

Pretty far to the south given the longitude...could be a rainmaker for areas of haiti and the domincan republic....areas that do not need any rain for sure.
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#14 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:19 pm

Hummm, not good news in the islands my friends. Martinica has just issued and orange alert :eek: :roll: ! Maybe us in Guadeloupe will pass in orange too, wait and see.
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:21 pm

Hey Huc what the weather conditons in your location?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:25 pm

Curvature and persistence suggest formation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:59 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby jinftl » Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:01 pm

98L is no Marco-sized system.....large area of disturbed weather and convection for sure!

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby HUC » Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:25 pm

Nothing special,Gusty:the "normal" weather in this kind of situation when your location is not in a connvective area;that to says: overcast,1mm of rain in 12 hours!!! a little windy from the S EST ( 45kh,or 28mph ).But things can change if a convectiv cell developped over your head :P But really, i don't think so at least for Basse-Terre...but,rhe only rule is WAIT AND SEE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:40 pm

HUC wrote:Nothing special,Gusty:the "normal" weather in this kind of situation when your location is not in a connvective area;that to says: overcast,1mm of rain in 12 hours!!! a little windy from the S EST ( 45kh,or 28mph ).But things can change if a convectiv cell developped over your head :P But really, i don't think so at least for Basse-Terre...but,rhe only rule is WAIT AND SEE.

Ok my friend, pretty similar here since 7am nothing or a few millimimeters, you're right and i appreciate when you say :"But things can change if a convectiv cell developped over your head :P :D :wink: " and that's exactly what i tkink , so the risk is there, "simple wave" means always safety and to be prudent.... Yes no more wait and see, this system does not to give up and fall part, nasty!!!! At this speed , we're good for at least tuesday :double: :roll: ...without sun, awfull and a deterioration is expect by Meteo-France tuesday night waouw :eek: (another round of shwoers and tstorms!!).
If i watch the Phoenix Suns of big Shaq ( NBA Basket-Ball) i will find the Sun and putting it in my the heart :P :).
I will keep you informed Huc and the others in any case and especially if things turn quickly . Be safe Huc, seems that we're blessed "for the moment " compared to the others islands, numerous damages, floodings... have been reported in St Lucia, St Vincent. Let's wait and see ....The convection is spared everywhere but at anytime it can refire, bear watching carib islanders! :D :wink:
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