ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

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Irina
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#681 Postby Irina » Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:29 pm

Lynn,
They took a good hit. Much worse than thought but not as bad as it could be. Airport closed till tomorrow. Lot's of damage to ground floor hotel space around the bridge, which is where we used to go for sunset! Lot's of damaged and destroyed boats/yachts in the lagoon. Tornado hit near Simpson Bay Marina and I hear the marine damage is bad. Like Wrong Way Lenny. Some at hospital with cuts. Don't know much more as of yet. Info trickling in as more get online.
French side fared better than Dutch side.
Thanks
irina
PS Liked Sint Maarten better than Miami!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#682 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:50 pm

Omar a hurricane this afternoon? You must be kidding. Would that elongated mass of thunderstorms be upgraded to a hurricane? It probably won't even have an LLC by tomorrow at the rate it's being torn apart. Those winds aloft are not likely making it down to the surface, and that 90% satellite winds conversion doesn't apply outside of an eyewall, which Omar lacks.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#683 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:Omar a hurricane this afternoon? You must be kidding. Would that elongated mass of thunderstorms be upgraded to a hurricane? It probably won't even have an LLC by tomorrow at the rate it's being torn apart. Those winds aloft are not likely making it down to the surface, and that 90% satellite winds conversion doesn't apply outside of an eyewall, which Omar lacks.


Now that it is heading away from land, kind of academic. I know a private sector pro-met who has a PPV web page who thinks NHC issues advisories that "verify" their previous forecasts. I don't know.


But if they dropped it to a storm, or declared it extra-tropical now, or tomorrow morning, it doesn't change anything.

I'm more excited about the GFS suggestion of snow in a week in Kenosha, WI. At least that will affect the sensible weather for people not at sea on freighters.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#684 Postby expat2carib » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:46 pm

St. maarten here.

They took a hit.....Yes

Not that bad though. All was already running from early this morning. There was a curfew untill 2 PM. Nobody even thought about keeping the curfew. I was already drinking espresso at about 9 in the morning.

Individual reports coming in now. Lots of people have been in big problems. Some of the resorts had people floating out on beds.

NO casualties confirmed by now.

It's probably a way how to tackle this kind of situations. Most of the people didn't sleep all night and have been celebrating ....some kind of AFTER hurricane party with the attitude WE SURVIVED!!!

That's the state of mind here. Lots of panic in the night time. Lots of boats in problems. Most boaters managed to get to sandy ground and stranded there. Not that much damage done.

Lets see at it tomorrow when all is placed into a realistic perspective.

I think St. Maarten did OK!

I'm more worried about the other islands that were in the surge and didn't expect it because they were so far away from the center.

Could somebody please tell me why the islands soooooo far away from the center were hit soo hard.

Makes no sense to me.

Lets see
Last edited by expat2carib on Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#685 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:50 pm

Image

Looking like a cold front or trough, not a hurricane.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#686 Postby jinftl » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:09 pm

Today's blog from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Hurricane Omar blasted through the Lesser Antilles last night, intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane as it accelerated to the northeast. Fortunately, the eye missed all the islands, as the storm passed through the narrow Anedega Passage between the Virgin Islands and Anguilla. However, the western eyewall did pass over the eastern tip of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands, bringing hurricane-force winds there. A Personal Weather Station at the Buccaneer Resort on the northeast coast of St. Croix recorded sustained winds of 80 mph at a height of 110 feet. Rainfall there was 6.28" on Thursday, and 9.11" so far today, for a storm total of 15.39". Other wind measurements and total rainfall for the past two days from Omar:

St. Croix airport 39 mph, gusting to 58 mph
Limetree Bay, south side of St. Croix 51 mph, gusting to 71 mph
Limetree Bay CMAN station, St. Croix 53 mph
St. Maartin airport 45 mph, gusting to 67 mph
Anguilla West End Personal Weather Station 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph

Omar in historical perspective
Omar is an unusual hurricane in several respects. It's one of only four hurricanes to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands so late in the season. The only hurricanes that occurred later were the Category 3 1867 hurricane that hit Puerto Rico, and two 1999 storms, Category 2 Jose and famed Category 4 "Wrong-way Lenny". Lenny was the only west-to-east moving hurricane on record to affect the Lesser Antilles. Omar's northeasterly motion is highly unusual as well, and I couldn't find any similar storms in the historical record except Lenny
.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1129&tstamp=200810
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#687 Postby expat2carib » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:11 pm

- SxmGIS - Update by the Emergency Operations Center on recovery and clean-up efforts
From: "Roddy Heyliger" <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 16 Oct 2008 19:08:27 -0400

News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Thursday, October 16, 2008/N000 – 6.00PM



Update by the Emergency Operations Center on recovery and clean-up efforts



GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) – Chairman of the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Governor Franklyn Richards, chaired a meeting of the Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) of the Island Government's Disaster Management System that met at 3.00pm on Thursday afternoon to provide an update with respect to their recovery and clean-up efforts after the passing of Hurricane Omar.



Business as usual:

It is business as usual since Thursday afternoon for all businesses on the island. Friday, October 17 will be a normal business day.



Schools

Schools are to remain closed on Friday. In consultation with the Commissioner of Education, an assessment of all public schools will be carried out on Friday. Additional information will be made available on Friday as to the recommencement of classes.



Electricity Service:

Technicians from GEBE according to the Managing Director William Brooks are working diligently to restore the power supply. By Thursday evening, areas with underground cabling should have electricity. For areas with cables above ground, within seven days electricity would have been restored to the affected areas.



Government Services:

All essential staff of the ESFs will remain active on Friday, October 17 during the continued recovery and clean-up efforts.



Government will need to provide a minimum level of basic services on Friday, October 17 to the general public. Department heads and basic staff are to report to work on Friday, October 17 from the following government departments: Census Office, IT Department, General Affairs, the Island Secretariat, the Government Information Service (GIS) and the Island Receiver's Office.



All other government departments not mentioned, the department heads and staff are to remain on standby and be readily accessible if required, according to the Island Secretary Joane Dovale-Meit.



Public Health:

The Hygiene Department has already carried out a number of inspections with respect to food safety. These inspections will be intensified on Friday.



There were three hurricane related calls that the ambulance service responded too and they were all minor injuries.



Family physicians and pharmacies will reopen on Friday, to render services to the community.



Public Works/Infrastructure:

All main roads, 85 per cent have been cleared by road clearing crews who have been working diligently to complete this effort. The clearing of district roads is going very well and would be completed by the weekend.



Telecommunications:

Telcell reported two cell sites being down. Service on Saba has been restored and technicians are working to restore service on St. Eustatius. Approximately 1100 land subscribers are without service. Restoration of services will take up to six weeks. Telem's offices will be open on Friday and customers can report their outages.



Seaport/Airport:

Additional inspections are needed of the Port of St. Maarten. The new cruise pier has suffered damage and there will be a delay in its completion which was set for December 15.



Shipping schedules with respect to the cargo facility will be adapted accordingly based on inspections that need to be carried out around the docking areas. Once the seas subside, these will be carried out.



Due to the high sea swells that dumped rocks and sand on the runway of the Princess Juliana International Airport, and damage to part of the security/safety fence, the airport remained closed on Thursday. Crews were busy cleaning up the runway and repairing the fence in order to be able to meet all international safety aviation requirements. Repair crews were working diligently to get the airport open as soon as possible. The airport is scheduled to reopen on Friday morning.



Conclusion:

EOC Chairman Governor Franklyn Richards would like to thank the members of the Netherlands Antilles Police Force, Section St. Maarten, the VKS Officers, the Marechaussee, and the Royal Dutch Marines, the Emergency Support Functions, and first responders for their outstanding assistance before, during and after the passing of Hurricane Omar.



I would also like to thank the broadcast media, the GIS as well as the print-media for the role that they have played prior to the passing of Hurricane Omar, during the passing of the category three hurricane and now the current phase of recovery and clean-up, in facilitating the necessary information to the general public.



I would like to commend persons who have been cleaning up their surroundings and placing debris and refuse at garbage disposal areas and in bins. Please do continue to do this as all hands are needed on deck to quickly clean-up the island.



I must also use this opportunity to commend the nation for heeding the warnings that were given to prepare for Hurricane Omar and for remaining indoors until the system had passed.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

St. Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)



http://www.stormcarib.com
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#688 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:13 pm

Omar is an unusual hurricane in several respects. It's one of only four hurricanes to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands so late in the season. The only hurricanes that occurred later were the Category 3 1867 hurricane that hit Puerto Rico, and two 1999 storms, Category 2 Jose and famed Category 4 "Wrong-way Lenny". Lenny was the only west-to-east moving hurricane on record to affect the Lesser Antilles. Omar's northeasterly motion is highly unusual as well, and I couldn't find any similar storms in the historical record except Lenny.


Reminds me of a rhyme I read that was from the Lesser Antilles, and usually accurate, but obviously not fool proof..

June-Too Soon.
July-Stand By!
August-Look Out You Must!
September - Remember!
October - All Over.


Wasn't all over this October...
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#689 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:47 pm

16/2345 UTC 23.2N 59.2W EXTRATROPICAL OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean
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#690 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:48 pm

I agree with the extratropical analysis. It looks like Ike while well inland.
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#691 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 8:08 pm

AL, 15, 2008101700, , BEST, 0, 228N, 588W, 65, 986, HU,
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#692 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:47 am

wxman57 wrote:Omar a hurricane this afternoon? You must be kidding. Would that elongated mass of thunderstorms be upgraded to a hurricane? It probably won't even have an LLC by tomorrow at the rate it's being torn apart. Those winds aloft are not likely making it down to the surface, and that 90% satellite winds conversion doesn't apply outside of an eyewall, which Omar lacks.

I'm in full agreement here, it didn't even look like a tropical cyclone late this morning! It does look like a trough or a mass of convection just out there now.

This must have been one of the most rapid transitions from a powerful hurricane to almost nothing in a short period of time. On the long range loops, it looks like the ball of convection just morphed right into a squall line of some sort, weird.

Will best track show that this was a category 4 hurricane?
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#693 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:21 am

Refiring a bit over the past few hours.
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#694 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:55 am

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170927
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LOW WILL BE NEARLY 200
MILES NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. AT
250 MB...A FIFTY KNOT JET WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
PUERTO RICO WITH WINDS HEADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REACH ITS PERIGEE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 18Z IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO FLORIDA AND STAYS UNTIL THE FOLLOWING
SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR 26 NORTH
56.4 DEGREES WEST AT 5 AM AND WILL CONTINUE IN ITS FORWARD MOTION
WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FROM FLORIDA TODAY AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY BUT WEAK RIDGING WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MONDAY WHEN STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE CAROLINAS. THE
RIDGE AND A LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE AREA THAT WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH TRAILING OMAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 53 WEST AND SOUTH OF 16
NORTH. THIS WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. NO MAJOR
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRYER AIR FROM THE NORTH HAS SAGGED SOUTH OVER THE
AREA AND REDUCED THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS AROUND AND ABOUT THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS MORNING TO
MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BAND OF MOISTURE IN
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM OMAR BACK OVER THE AREA AND
INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MOISTURE DECREASES
THROUGH MIDDAY ON MONDAY BUT WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE IN
THE FLOW FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...YIELDING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO MAJOR RAINS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. WE NOW RETURN TO OUR
REGULARLY SCHEDULED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 16Z-
22Z...WITH NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MOVING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THEREFORE..EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJPS...AND TJMZ. NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DECREASING AT OUR SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BUOY
AND WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COME DOWN TODAY. SEAS
REACH A MINIMUM ON SUNDAY...AFTER WHICH A LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SEND SOME SWELL TOWARD THE AREA AND RAISE
SEA HEIGHTS TO CLOSE TO 6 FEET. CARIBBEAN SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY RELAXED IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 88 77 / 10 20 10 50
STT 83 76 87 76 / 10 20 10 70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...SCA...AMZ710.
VI...SCA...AMZ710.

&&

$$

71/12/
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#695 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:19 am

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 170940
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD SOUTH..AND SOUTHWEST...AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO.

MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
AS OMAR HAS MOVED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGHOUT ALL
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

$$
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#696 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:22 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR AT 17/0900 UTC IS NEAR
26.0N 56.4W. OMAR IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES 22 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
54W AND 57W.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#697 Postby bvigal » Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:24 am

Today's blog from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Omar in historical perspective
Omar is an unusual hurricane in several respects. It's one of only four hurricanes to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands so late in the season. The only hurricanes that occurred later were the Category 3 1867 hurricane that hit Puerto Rico, and two 1999 storms, Category 2 Jose and famed Category 4 "Wrong-way Lenny". Lenny was the only west-to-east moving hurricane on record to affect the Lesser Antilles. Omar's northeasterly motion is highly unusual as well, and I couldn't find any similar storms in the historical record except Lenny[/i].

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1129&tstamp=200810

I think Dr. Masters needs to look at the record again!
Hurricane Klaus (same track as Omar) November 1984
We had what they called the "Christmas hurricane" some years back, don't remember which year
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#698 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:39 am

Best Track 12z:

AL, 15, 2008101712, , BEST, 0, 279N, 557W, 60, 990, TS

60 knots

Image
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#699 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:41 am

17/1145 UTC 26.8N 56.3W T2.0/2.5 OMAR
17/0545 UTC 25.1N 57.2W ST1.5 OMAR
16/2345 UTC 23.2N 59.2W EXTRATROPICAL OMAR

Dvorak is going crazy trying to figure out Omar.
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#700 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:44 am

"Dvorak" can't "go crazy". It's a technique worked on by analysts.
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