ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

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HURAKAN
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#701 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:45 am

Chacor wrote:"Dvorak" can't "go crazy". It's a technique worked on by analysts.


Figurative speech??? :D :D
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#702 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:52 am

bvigal wrote: I think Dr. Masters needs to look at the record again!
Hurricane Klaus (same track as Omar) November 1984
We had what they called the "Christmas hurricane" some years back, don't remember which year


He said:"It's one of only four hurricanes to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands so late in the season."

He's right in what he said. Klaus was not a hurricane until after it had already moved north of VI/PR. It was a tropical storm as it moved over E PR.

Now...he did miss Alice of 1954...which was a Hurricane...and technically formed late in the 1954 season and went into 1955.

As far as a Christmas hurricane...the only thing that is close is Alice and Lili...but Lili didn't really impact the islands too much.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#703 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:08 am

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY
CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC...THOUGH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT
ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60
KT...ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE.
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#704 Postby EJW » Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:29 am

For those of you who wished us well on Wednesday, thank you.

Omar passed us by as you well know. Minimal effect on the island and our home.

It was great for us to get last minute info/support from this site as we tried not to slip into panic mode. (hurricane newbies)

EJW
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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#705 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:33 am

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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#706 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:53 am

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#707 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 11:48 am

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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#708 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:06 pm

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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#709 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:27 pm

Didn't Lenny intensify right up until hitting the NE Leewards and then rapidly fall apart as well? Looking at Lenny's track makes you think he bombed from a Cat1 to a Cat4 in 12 hours until you realize you're looking at it backwards and the rapid weakening occurred just AFTER impacting the islands from the SW.....the islands aren't high enough in that area to provide any sort of barrier to shear so it's a bit puzzling that the atmosphere would "draw a line in the sand" right at the Puerto Rico Trench.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#710 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:34 pm

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#711 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:40 pm

looks more tropical today than it did yesterday. Did the islands really do that much damage?
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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#712 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:46 pm

Hurricane again per Best Track:

AL, 15, 2008101718, , BEST, 0, 302N, 544W, 65, 987, HU
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#713 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:53 pm

I wasn't expecting this after how it looked after yesterday! :eek: A full loop of the storm's life has to be released, it's unique.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#714 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Oct 17, 2008 2:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hurricane again per Best Track:

AL, 15, 2008101718, , BEST, 0, 302N, 544W, 65, 987, HU


The deep convection it had this morning has diminished greatly. Dvorak numbers have actually dropped this afternon. Despite the eye appearance on the visible, I don't think it should be upgraded to hurricane status again.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#715 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 17, 2008 2:17 pm

I think it is obvious Lenny and Omar are showing us a reverse east Caribbean zone of tropical death effect. Which means the abrupt change between Caribbean and Atlantic environments affects storms. But really it's the channel effect of the islands and the surface flow that probably causes turbulence that disrupts the balance between levels.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#716 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:38 pm

Its officially a hurricane again.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS EXHIBITED A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...ALBEIT EMBEDDED IN WEAK
CONVECTION...IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT SUPPORTS MAKING OMAR A
HURRICANE AGAIN. THE 1601Z TRMM OVERPASS THAT DEPICTED A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT
OMAR WAS LIKELY A HURRICANE AT 12Z AS WELL.
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#717 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:44 pm

The convection is the weakest I have ever seen for a "Hurricane".
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#718 Postby superfly » Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:54 pm

I don't think it's a hurricane anymore but it was 2-3 hours ago.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#719 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:01 pm

superfly wrote:I don't think it's a hurricane anymore but it was 2-3 hours ago.


from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2032.shtml


THE 65-KT INTENSITY RECENTLY ACHIEVED BY OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
CYCLONE...ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OMAR...A RE-FIRING OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...THE INTENSITY IS NOT BEING FORECAST TO DECREASE TOO
QUICKLY SIMPLY BASED ON THE CURRENT POOR SATELLITE SIGNATURE.
IN
THE LONGER TERM...HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS BENEATH THE
CYCLONE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND THE HWRF DYNAMICAL MODEL.
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#720 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:19 pm

IMO, it was never a tropical storm. I think it remained a hurricane throughout as looks can sometimes be deceptive.
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