ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

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Epsilon_Fan
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#721 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:34 pm

looks like it's trying to pull an Epsilon, I wonder if it will loop around or become extratropical and go into the E. Atlantic
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#722 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:51 pm

A Tropical Storm again per Best Track:

AL, 15, 2008101800, , BEST, 0, 312N, 533W, 55, 988, TS
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Re: ATL OMAR: Hurricane - Discussion

#723 Postby Just Joshing You » Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:54 pm

Epsilon_Fan wrote:looks like it's trying to pull an Epsilon, I wonder if it will loop around or become extratropical and go into the E. Atlantic


Hey you're biased!!!!!
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#724 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:32 pm

17/2345 UTC 31.2N 53.3W ST2.5 15L
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#725 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:36 pm

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...31.5 N...52.8 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65 mph.
Minimum central pressure...989 mb.
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#726 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 18, 2008 3:42 am

CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND I USE THAT TERM QUITE LOOSELY IN THIS
CASE...HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AND INNER-CORE CLOUD TOPS
ARE BARELY -20C...WITH MOST TOPS WARMER THAN -10C. ONE COULD
CERTAINLY ARGUE THAT OMAR MAY NOT EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

Image

Very warm cloud tops indeed, but there still is that eye feature.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS BASED THE WELL-DEFINED
EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.
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#727 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:02 am

Image

Adiós Omar.
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#728 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:03 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2008 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 33:01:20 N Lon : 51:21:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.1 /1011.0mb/ 25.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.0 1.0 1.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -2.6mb

Center Temp : +16.9C Cloud Region Temp : 6.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

****************************************************
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#729 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 18, 2008 8:18 am

Image

Image

It looks like a remnant low pressure system.
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#730 Postby RL3AO » Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:40 am

The final advisory of the 2008 AHS? We can hope.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#731 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:40 am

Finnally the last advisory has been written at 11 AM EDT.
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#732 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2008 10:03 am

I don't think the season is quite over...we still have a while to go through...

As for Omar, hope you had fun out there, NOT! Don't let the :Door: slam on you! See you in 2014! (if we get that far)
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#733 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:58 pm

It seems to be trying to refire convection - only a little bit now, but it is a bit better than before. Shear is decreasing (and low ahead of it), so I wouldn't completely rule out Omar regenerating...
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#734 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2008 12:01 am

Has to be an error? Best track still has it as a tropical storm...

AL, 15, 2008101900, , BEST, 0, 339N, 497W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ
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#735 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 19, 2008 12:40 am

Considering they didn't issue an advisory at 3z, I'd say error.

And to further prove its an error.

Image
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Re: ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

#736 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:10 am

Omar has disappeared. :lol:
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Re: ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

#737 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Oct 19, 2008 3:58 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190543
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF OMAR ARE CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. RE-DEVELOPMENT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.


AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. LITTLE MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER BELIZE AND THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED
ABOUT 900 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

#738 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 21, 2008 3:47 am

Just have to get a post on this system...

I feel this was a borderline cat4. I don't understand the 125 mph peak.
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#739 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 13, 2008 8:49 pm

AL, 15, 2008101606, , BEST, 0, 182N, 639W, 115, 958

Omar intensity up to 115 knots in the Best Track.

This season, 17 TD, 16 TS, 8 H, 5 MH { 1 Cat. 3, 4 Cat. 4, 0 Cat. 5 }
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