ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jinftl]

Agree...depending upon location, population density, an area's vulnerability to surge or flooding from rain.....a storm of any category, even a depression or tropical storm, can be devastating.

I agree Cat 5. It is a blessing. Unfortunately Fay did cause flood damage to many parts,
but thank goodness we had no major hurricane. And Fay actually helped refill Lake Ockeechobee.

Intense (Cat 3+) landfalls are very rare... I also believe this year proved (again) that you don't need a Cat 3+ to induce significant effects. Look at Ike (Cat 2) and Claudette (borderline Cat 1/2) in Texas...

Contributors forget very easily...

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Appears to be mostly stationary and organizing.

[gatorcane]

TD 16 has not moved in several hours. I'm wondering if some of the models are trying to move it west too quickly.

So far the very slow or no movement has been shown by the ECMWF.....kudos to this model yet again

[HURAKAN]

[CourierPR]

A local met said on Monday that a front would approach our area by week's end. Will this affect the future course of TD16?

[gatorcane]

I have no idea how NHC gets a WNW movement at 7mph at the 5pm advisory. It is not moving over the last few hours as shown by this close-up visible:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[HURAKAN]

This system needs another DMAX to get going.

[Thunder44]

I have no idea how NHC gets a WNW movement at 7mph at the 5pm advisory. It is not moving over the last few hours as shown by this close-up visible:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

In the 5pm discussion, they said that the plane fixed center recently further WNW of their advisory position. So they may have to reposition the center later on to the WNW, anyway.

[HURAKAN]

Typical for the time of the year in the Caribbean. Low atmospheric pressure but also light winds. I remember when Wilma was a 50 mph storm its pressure was already 989 mb.

[Sanibel]

Too much land interaction. Should remain weak.

[HURAKAN]

Intense band of convection developing over Central America. Not good news for the area.

[MiamiensisWx]

Is it possible that a small piece of 850 mb LL vorticity is "breaking off" and moving east into the Caribbean Sea SW of Jamaica? I believe similar scenarios have occurred in some previous cases.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

CIMSS 850 mb vorticity data is not available... can anyone offer other resources?

[HURAKAN]

Relocation to the center found by RECON.

Best Track 0z

AL, 16, 2008101500, , BEST, 0, 161N, 836W, 25, 1005, TD

[Chacor]

Still very disorganised.

[HURAKAN]

Still very disorganised.

You gotta love the tropics. Conditions are very favorable but it's interacting with land!!!

[Sanibel]

I see the center going overland near 15.7N-84W

[HURAKAN]

I see the center going overland near 15.7N-84W

At 5 PM the NHC said that the overall circulation or borad circulation is not the real center as the RECON found it to be 45 nm to the NW of the center observed in the images.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree Cat 5. It is a blessing. Unfortunately Fay did cause flood damage to many parts,
but thank goodness we had no major hurricane. And Fay actually helped refill Lake Ockeechobee.

Intense (Cat 3+) landfalls are very rare... I also believe this year proved (again) that you don't need a Cat 3+ to induce significant effects. Look at Ike (Cat 2) and Claudette (borderline Cat 1/2) in Texas...

Contributors forget very easily...

I did not forget anything- I never said a category 1/2 was weak. Category 1 Jeanne was like a tornado
when it hit Tampa Bay 4 years ago, after hitting the east coast as a Category 3.

[canetracker]

Why is the NRL showing Invest 99L and TD 16 in the same area? Are they 2 different circulations?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=10&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi

[Chacor]

99L became TD16.