ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Almost in the same spot.

[Sanibel]

Flatter track more south is obvious in the synoptic. All a matter of intensity which might stay lower because of TD15.

[boca]

Sandy your right about Fay, adding about 3 feet of water to Lake Okeechobee we are lucky this year so far.

[Category 5]

Flatter track more south is obvious in the synoptic. All a matter of intensity which might stay lower because of TD15.

Omar will have zero effect on TD 16 which is on the opposite side of the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

In my years of tracking storms I don't remember ever seeing two systems in the Caribbean Sea at the same time, does anyone know when has that happened before? if it has happened.

[Category 5]

In my years of tracking storms I don't remember ever seeing two systems in the Caribbean Sea at the same time, does anyone know when has that happened before? if it has happened.

Iris and Jerry October 2001.

[HURAKAN]

Iris and Jerry October 2001.

Thanks. Now harder, that both formed in the Caribbean Sea??

[jinftl]

Not sure of all the mechanics, but the MJO phase we are currently in has to be adding to the conditions making things so ripe for development...almost every area of disturbed weather in the basin is at least becoming a td right now....and this is about a week to 10 days after we saw the same in the EPac.

At this rate we are going to be going through the alphabet of storms very quickly...we are aleady at the 3 named storms dr. gray predicted for the month of october.

Impressive image of the Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Omar will have zero effect on TD 16 which is on the opposite side of the Caribbean.

Sorry but you won't find strong storms so close together. I believe they already are affecting each other. I don't think you could prove they weren't just as well as I couldn't prove they were.

I can't be the only one noticing a strange year with double storms.

[HurricaneRobert]

Joan and a tropical depression were both in the Caribbean at the same time. I think they were a lot closer to one another.

[Category 5]

Omar will have zero effect on TD 16 which is on the opposite side of the Caribbean.

Sorry but you won't find strong storms so close together. I believe they already are affecting each other. I don't think you could prove they weren't just as well as I couldn't prove they were.

True we often don't see 2 storms in the Caribbean, but it seems quite clear that any effects they're having on each other, if any, are minimal. Soon they'll be moving in opposite directions too, there won't be much if any interaction.

[Sanibel]

15.7N-83.2W


Just offshore on the corner of Honduras/Nicaragua.

[Sanibel]

Southern inflow retarded by land.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A very strong ridge over the southeast United States should
push this into Central America. At least that is what the globals show.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

there's been alot of activity around Florida this season but somehow Florida is avoiding it, besides Fay of course.

This season is probably going to go down as a season that florida dodged several bullets.

After the hell yous went through a few years ago I'd say that's a blessing.

This storm track wise is looking alot like Keith 2000, minus emerging into the GOM.

I agree Cat 5. It is a blessing. Unfortunately Fay did cause flood damage to many parts,
but thank goodness we had no major hurricane. And Fay actually helped refill Lake Ockeechobee.

[gatorcane]

A very strong ridge over the southeast United States should
push this into Central America. At least that is what the globals show.

not quite true. The globals are starting to trend towards stalling TD 16 near Belize. The only models I see that are driving TD 16 due west into Central America now are the BAMMs and LGEM.

the ECMWF should be out shortly.

[hial2]

A very strong ridge over the southeast United States should
push this into Central America. At least that is what the globals show.

not quite true. The globals are starting to trend towards stalling TD 16 near Belize. The only models I see that are driving TD 16 due west into Central America now are the BAMMs and LGEM.

the ECMWF should be out shortly.

A (weaker) Mitch in the making?

[somethingfunny]

A very strong ridge over the southeast United States should
push this into Central America. At least that is what the globals show.

not quite true. The globals are starting to trend towards stalling TD 16 near Belize. The only models I see that are driving TD 16 due west into Central America now are the BAMMs and LGEM.

the ECMWF should be out shortly.

A (weaker) Mitch in the making?

Hopefully weaker than Mitch or Keith....Keith was a mother, but frequently gets forgotten having hit just two years after Mitch. I saw a poster from Belize mention that there is still alot of damage from Arthur back in May. A worst-case scenario doesn't even hinge upon 16/Paloma's actual strength...just the length of time that flooding rains linger in the area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon not overly impressive so far, looks like a 1004 mb 25 to 30 knot TD.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree Cat 5. It is a blessing. Unfortunately Fay did cause flood damage to many parts,
but thank goodness we had no major hurricane. And Fay actually helped refill Lake Ockeechobee.

Intense (Cat 3+) landfalls are very rare... I also believe this year proved (again) that you don't need a Cat 3+ to induce significant effects. Look at Ike (Cat 2) and Claudette (borderline Cat 1/2) in Texas...

Contributors forget very easily... a major hurricane landfall could be irrelevant if it's very compact and strikes an unpopulated coastal region, while a large Cat 2 impacting a populated region (i.e. SE Texas/SW Louisiana) is a different case study...