ATL SIXTEEN: Models

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and the
tropical depression has been producing 25-35 mph wind gusts
the last 3 days over Florida, this means that one heck of a high
is built over Florida. This cyclone will probably get into the pacific and get
the pacific name.

[boca]

The HWRF now makes a sharp right turn up through the Yucatan.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

I wonder why the HWRF sees that because the high is so massive nothing will penetrate it.Check this out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

You can see the high is still pushing south into the extreme NW Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

The HWRF now makes a sharp right turn up through the Yucatan.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

I wonder why the HWRF sees that because the high is so massive nothing will penetrate it.Check this out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
You can see the high is still pushing south into the extreme NW Caribbean.

Yeah, there is no missing that high building in. It almost looks like the convection to the SE of TD16 is rotating around a different center.

[Sanibel]

Another uncommon feature in 2008. That HIGH is dominating the entire area. However look at the trough over Oklahoma. That could be our kicker:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[boca]

That trough looks like its stationary on the southern end but moving east on the northern end.That high seems to be blocking any eastward movement for the time being.I don't think that will have enough kick to turn td 16 northward this weekend.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS moves 16L inland and dissipates it, but generally low pressure and rainy weather remain, possibly to reform...

[AJC3]

That run is holding something back in the SW/Western Caribbean still. It's hard to tell if its TD 16 reforming in the SW Caribbean or if it pushes it quickly off into Central America forming another surface low there.

By the looks of what is going on around TD 16 it wouldn't surprise me if something else tries to get going off of Nicaragua again. Also TD 16 is not moving, just like the Euro has been forecasting.

The NAM has also consistenly tried to reform a low off of Nicaragua/Honduras from convection originating from TD 16....we shall see: 84 hours from now and look what the NAM is showing

<snip>

The GFS seems to be on board also:

<snip>

What the ECM and the other 00Z guidance was showing is something that emanates later on in the period from north of Panama. Tis the season for that area, however by then whatever remnant vort energy is left of '16' will more than likely be fueling something in the EPAC.

Off to look at the 12Z runs...