ATL OMAR: Advisories

[HURAKAN]

303
WTNT35 KNHC 131440
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
69.6 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
CURACAO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR.
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THIS IS A LARGE DEPRESSION AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

465
WTNT45 KNHC 131441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY...I WOULD WAIT FOR THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
START ADVISORIES...BUT IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE
DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND
VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IS FAVORABLE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12
TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME
MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF
FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR
A DAY OR TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.8N 69.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.1N 70.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 15.5N 70.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 69.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 67.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 63.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 24.0N 59.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 132036
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION
OF HISPANIOLA FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST OR ABOUT
355 MILES...570 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 185
MILES...295 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CURACAO.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A NORTHEAST TRACK WITH AN INCREASE
FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN...BRINGING THE CENTER VERY NEAR PUERTO
RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THIS IS A LARGE DEPRESSION AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.9 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE DAY AND THE APPARENT CENTER HAS BEEN AT TIMES EXPOSED DUE TO
SHEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPANDING WESTWARD SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR IS RELAXING A BIT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A
LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE DEPRESSION SHORTLY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATED AND IT
CONTINUES TO BE A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL
PAIR. THE LATTER MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NEAR PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND
LITTLE MOTION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO
RECURVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR PUERTO RICO IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH A
FORECAST POSITION IS INDICATED AT 120 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY
A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.8N 69.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.9N 69.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 15.5N 69.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 68.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 17.7N 66.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 63.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.5N 59.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

222
WTNT35 KNHC 132353
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 PM AST MON OCT 13 2008

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING DEPRESSION...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS RELOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...570 KM...SOUTHWEST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 140252
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED
RANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST. THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL
AND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION
IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.6N 69.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 14.8N 69.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 68.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.0N 66.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 63.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 58.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

948
WTNT35 KNHC 141142
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT
360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE
SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE AREA. THEREFORE THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NONETHELESS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 130/2.
OBVIOUSLY THE STEERING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE VERY
WEAK AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO QUITE CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

RADAR IMAGES FROM CURACAO SHOW RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION PASSING OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 14.3N 69.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.6N 68.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.3N 68.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.6N 67.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 18.3N 65.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.6N 62.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 26.0N 59.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 31.0N 57.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 140830
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.6N 68.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.6N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N 62.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
FONT15 KNHC 140831
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 2 3 4
TROP DEPRESSION 16 15 13 11 7 8 10
TROPICAL STORM 82 77 69 58 44 41 42
HURRICANE 2 7 16 28 48 49 45
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 6 13 23 31 31 27
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 4 11 12 12
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 2 5 5 5
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 65KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CURACAO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 17(34) 6(40) 1(41) X(41)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

SAN JUAN 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 21(32) 9(41) 1(42) X(42)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 13(46) 1(47) 1(48)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) 13(47) 1(48) X(48)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 20(37) 2(39) 1(40)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 14(27) 1(28) 1(29)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 2(25) 1(26)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 1(20) 1(21)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15)

AVES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) X(20) 1(21)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

306
WTNT25 KNHC 141441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 55SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 69.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

342
WTNT35 KNHC 141442
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRENGTHENS INTO
TROPICAL STORM OMAR...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...570 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...
110 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N...69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

630
WTNT45 KNHC 141505
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE
INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST
TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR
GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2
AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 14.0N 69.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 141755
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
200 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR STRENGTHENS AS IT LASHES ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE...
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES...600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
110 MILES...180 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...83 KM/HR. HOWEVER...THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT COMPLETED ITS INVESTIGATION OF
OMAR...AND THE TROPICAL STORM COULD BE STRONGER. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...
110 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO
43 MPH...63 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON CURACAO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...68.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 142032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...ANTIGUA
AND BARBUDA...AND FRANCE...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
120 MILES...195 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND OMAR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE PROLONGED SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 142059
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT...RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB...BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE...
THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR...THE FLIGHT CREW
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS RACE
OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION... IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL... AND HWRF MODELS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE...OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT...
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.0N 68.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 68.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 66.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 62.1W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 58.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 31.1N 55.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 49.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

AA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT.
THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...68.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 150251
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS
BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES
ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA
OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.
IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A
60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND
GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151145
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 265 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...
130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR COULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH...94 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.9 N...67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

ON ITS FINAL LEG AROUND 11Z...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF OMAR'S EYEWALL. THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARBY
DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND VALUE OF 68 KT...SO THE INTENSITY AT THE 12Z
SYNOPTIC TIME WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND ALSO IN THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA AT A
RANGE OF MORE THAN 200 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE AND
RADAR SIGNATURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY. OMAR IS
BASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN 72-96 HOURS...WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE OMAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY
EFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR
OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT. BASED ON THE BETTER
DEFINED EYE FEATURE...AND THE FACT THAT OMAR IS A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS...ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
IT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAPID ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
PRECLUDES EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THAT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME SINCE
THAT DRY AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CORE REGION IN 12-18
HOURS AND WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION
COULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THAT ISLAND. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.2N 67.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.9W 90 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
36HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 61.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.7N 60.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 56.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 37.0N 48.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 32.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 151759
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.3 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...
SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA
PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

TWO RECENT PASSES THROUGH OMAR'S EYE INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 4 MB...DOWN TO 973 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 89 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT AN
80-KT SURFACE WIND...DESPITE THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE MEASURED
HAVING ONLY BEEN 74 KT. HOWEVER...THE RECON AIRCRAFT AND THE
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN PLAYING A GAME OF CAT-AND-MOUSE...AND I DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 80 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THAT THE PRESSURE-WIND
RELATIONSHIP FOR 973 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/013. AFTER AN EARLIER JOG TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...IT APPEARS THAT OMAR HAS RESUMED ITS BASE COURSE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY AS ALL OF THE TRACK
MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
12-18 HOURS HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS
IT GETS DRAWN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY DAY 3. DURING DAYS 4-5...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE MUCH COOLER
WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN
THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS HAD A NOTICEABLE FAST FORWARD
SPEED BIAS.

STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE EYEWALL
AND RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL DISTINCT
MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE INNER PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THIS
FAVORABLE SMALL-SCALE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH MEANS THAT OMAR HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GFDL MODEL WAS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH OMAR ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN AND
BRINGS THE HURRICANE UP TO 109 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THAT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF A
RAPIDLY SHRINKING CDO FEATURE...PLUS THE INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SINCE OMAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
29C SSTS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 90 KT SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE
...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. ALSO...INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE REMINDED THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE
CATEGORY HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.9N 66.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 85 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.4N 62.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 23.2N 60.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 26.1N 59.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 31.7N 54.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 39.0N 44.5W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 152350
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR BECOMES CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
65.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX
AND ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
170 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ALSO... STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLAND
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA
PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...65.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN