ATL OMAR: Advisories

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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#21 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:59 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
300 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...OMAR RACING NORTHEASTWARD...WINDS INCREASED TO 125 MPH....

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE ISLANDS
OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 300 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES..90 KM...
NORTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF OMAR WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...
205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56
MPH...91 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...OMAR
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND
SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 100 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$

FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#22 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:29 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 160849
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER
DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO
INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE
AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OMAR HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS
AND SOON WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS
FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ACCELERATION AND
A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 19.1N 63.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 21.7N 61.0W 110 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 26.0N 58.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 30.0N 55.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 33.5N 52.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 37.0N 45.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 40.0N 37.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0600Z 42.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#23 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:53 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160848
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...CORE OF OMAR RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...NORTH OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70
MPH...113 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DATA WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OMAR COULD STILL PRODUCE LARGE
SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF THE
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.1 N...63.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#24 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:54 am

000
WTNT25 KNHC 160848
TCMAT5
HURRICANE OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0900 UTC THU OCT 16 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.7N 61.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 26.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 37.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 42.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#25 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:17 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 161200
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...OMAR MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...
THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND FRANCE HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR ST. KITTS...NEVIS....ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...
SABA...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
260 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/HR...AWAY
FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH OMAR IS STILL A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH- AND WEST-FACING COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE COASTAL ISLANDS
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...20.3 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:56 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 161452
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...OMAR QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
290 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FROM ANTIGUA SOUTHWARD TO
MARTINIQUE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.2 N...61.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:00 pm

WTNT45 KNHC 162059
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

OMAR'S CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WHILE THE
PRINCIPAL BAND TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH STILL CONTAINS VIGOROUS
DEEP CONVECTION. CONSTRAINTS ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ARE STILL
FORCING TAFB AND SAB TO INDICATE ABOUT A 90 KT HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL
FEATURES...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
30 DEGREES AT 23 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW TO
ITS NORTH AND MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR ALONG A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS...THE VARIOUS
MODELS SPLIT INTO TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
RE-INTENSIFICATION AND EXPANSION IN SIZE NEAR THE AZORES. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...GFS...AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BE MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST...AND
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OFF OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THIS ADVISORY IS THE
LATTER SCENARIO...THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND WEST OF THE
CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

DESPITE BEING OVER VERY WARM WATER...THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE INNER CORE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OMAR. HOWEVER...THE RAPID MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST MAY SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
THE SHEAR. THE FAST FORWARD MOTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE
WINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE VORTEX. THUS ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST MORE RAPID WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THOUGH THESE TECHNIQUES ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTING THE
LARGE NEGATIVE PERSISTENCE FACTOR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 22.1N 59.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 25.0N 57.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 28.2N 55.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 30.1N 53.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 32.2N 50.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 36.0N 46.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1800Z 38.0N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/1800Z 38.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...810 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 715 MILES...1150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...
110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.8 N...58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT45 KNHC 170239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

OMAR HAS A RATHER NON-TROPICAL APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATES THAT OMAR HAS LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE DUE TO
SHEAR...BUT RETAINS A LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM CORE. THAT...COMBINED
WITH NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARBY...MEANS THAT IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE
APPEARANCE. A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING
65 KT WIND VECTOR AND SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS. BASED ON THIS...OMAR
IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE UP TO 00Z...BUT HAS NOW LIKELY
WEAKENED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...040/22. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK. OMAR IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OMAR TO SLOW ITS FORWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 72
HR. THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
THE TOP OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST IT
TO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OF THESE
SCENARIOS WILL BE CORRECT. THUS...THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR AN
EASTWARD MOTION AT A SPEED BETWEEN THAT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
GLOBAL MODELS.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHETHER OMAR WILL BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE CALLED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW THAT OMAR IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING ABOUT 40 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE
SOME IN THE NEXT 24 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR
FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT OMAR WILL DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION TO
KEEP IF FROM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT FROM WEAKENING. THUS...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48 HR...OMAR WILL CROSS THE 26C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR...
AND BEGIN MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72-96 HR...AND KEEPS OMAR AT
35 KT DURING THIS TIME. IF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECASTS VERIFY...
OMAR COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 23.8N 58.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 26.4N 56.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 29.3N 54.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 31.3N 51.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 49.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/0000Z 38.0N 35.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 28.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#29 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:28 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 170834
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

...OMAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST OR ABOUT 670
MILES...1075 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N...56.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTNT45 KNHC 170836
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO WIND SHEAR. ON THE
CONTRARY... DATA FROM A 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA
OF STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED
ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND DATA FROM ASCAT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS HEADING
TOWARD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SAME
WEAKENING RATE AS THE SHIPS MODEL. OMAR SHOULD BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR LESS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND OMAR
IS STILL HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS.
OMAR SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SINCE THE TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN FORCING OMAR TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS WEAKENING
RESULTING IN LIGHTER STEERING CURRENTS. BASICALLY....ALL TRACK
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...MODEL
THE SPREAD INCREASES BUT THEY ALL BRING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL
EASTWARD TRACK AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 26.0N 56.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 28.7N 54.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 31.0N 52.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 33.0N 50.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 35.0N 48.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/0600Z 40.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/0600Z 40.0N 28.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:56 am

TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

...OMAR STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1000 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL
DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.
THUS...OMAR COULD BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.9 N...55.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY
CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC...THOUGH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT
ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60
KT...ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE.

OMAR HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH ADVECTS ALONG QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND LEAVES OMAR BEHIND...LIKELY CAUSING
THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
EARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB OMAR LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY ALL OF THE
GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH
MAINTAINS OMAR AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND LOOPS IT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED A BLEND OF A CONSENSUS
OF THESE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...AND THE FASTER
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OMAR HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING
COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY...OMAR IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF...BUT FASTER THAN...
THE SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED THE
OTHERWISE LARGE NEGATIVE SHEAR INFLUENCE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR
IS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO
LOW TROPOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER
...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 28.9N 55.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 31.4N 53.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 33.4N 51.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 49.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 36.6N 47.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 42.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 36.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:36 pm

000
WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS EXHIBITED A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...ALBEIT EMBEDDED IN WEAK
CONVECTION...IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT SUPPORTS MAKING OMAR A
HURRICANE AGAIN. THE 1601Z TRMM OVERPASS THAT DEPICTED A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT
OMAR WAS LIKELY A HURRICANE AT 12Z AS WELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 030/25. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS STARTED
TO WEAKEN...MAKING THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION MORE SHALLOW...THE
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
CORRESPONDING STEERING FLOW ALSO WEAKENS. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER OMAR...AND THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...OMAR IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE EASTWARD
WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT EXTRATROPICAL
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY-MONDAY. THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ABSORB OMAR IN 96 TO
120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN FORWARD SPEED
TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DUE TO A PERCEIVED SHARP SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS AND TURN BY
THE NOGAPS MODEL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS.

THE 65-KT INTENSITY RECENTLY ACHIEVED BY OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
CYCLONE...ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OMAR...A RE-FIRING OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...THE INTENSITY IS NOT BEING FORECAST TO DECREASE TOO
QUICKLY SIMPLY BASED ON THE CURRENT POOR SATELLITE SIGNATURE. IN
THE LONGER TERM...HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS BENEATH THE
CYCLONE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND THE HWRF DYNAMICAL MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 31.2N 53.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 32.9N 52.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 34.9N 49.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 36.5N 47.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 44.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/1800Z 39.5N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1800Z 39.5N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:37 pm

000
WTNT45 KNHC 180234
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 20Z SHOWS
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A DEEP-LAYER WARM CORE...WHICH SSM/I IMAGERY
SHOWS IS SURROUNDED BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY/COOL AIR. A QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE WINDS FROM
THE EARLIER OVERPASS...WITH NO RELIABLE-LOOKING VECTORS SHOWING
WINDS OF MORE THAN 45 TO 50 KT. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 20Z
WERE 55 TO 60 KT...WHILE REGULAR SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
TROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
THESE ESTIMATES...AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

OMAR HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/14. IN THE SHORT TERM...OMAR SHOULD
CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO
THE NORTH. THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HR...THE GFS...
ECMWF...UKMET..AND HWRF SHOW OMAR BEING ABSORBED INTO A BAROCLINIC
LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS AFTER OMAR
TURNS MORE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE NOGAPS...THE
BAMD...THE BAMM...AND THE LBAR FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF
SOLUTION...CALLING FOR OMAR TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HR.
HOWEVER...OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE NEW FORECAST IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THAT OF THOSE
MODELS.

OMAR IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C...AND
IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AFTER 24 HR. WHILE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OMAR SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR
AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IF THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SCENARIO VERIFIES...OMAR WILL BE ABSORBED BY
THE WARM FRONT OF THE ONCOMING BAROCLINIC LOW...WITH THE FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWING LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 48-96 HR PORTION OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 31.5N 52.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 33.3N 51.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 48.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.7N 46.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 38.3N 43.2W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 39.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 36.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL OMAR: Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:38 am

WTNT45 KNHC 181433
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

OMAR HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE A QUIKSCAT AND AN ASCAT PASS
OVER THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OMAR HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...IT DOES NOT MEET THE CRITERIA
FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW .

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. NOW THAT
OMAR IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OMAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 33.4N 50.7W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 19/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 19/1200Z 36.5N 46.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/0000Z 37.5N 43.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 20/1200Z 38.0N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/1200Z 39.0N 38.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1200Z 41.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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