ATL INVEST 90L: Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Indeed....could someone get an email into the NHC and get an official response on this?

[MiamiensisWx]

Indeed....could someone get an email into the NHC and get an official response on this?

I don't believe you'll glean substantive details via that route.

In regards to the lack of an upgrade, it's important to recall that the NHC (by its nature) is not a purely scientific organization. They are also a life saving agent. The lack of an upgrade can be easily explained by costs and other factors. In addition, it's quite taxing to schedule reconnaissance missions on a frequent basis. Unfortunately (for science interests), the inconsistences are the nature of the beast, and it will likely remain stagnant over the next several years.

[HURAKAN]

13/2345 UTC 13.8N 40.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Ptarmigan]

This one is close to Nana. I see a lot of Invest. Jeff Masters called it the "Child of Nana".

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200810

[TheEuropean]

14/0545 UTC 14.6N 40.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

The "child of Nana" istn't looking good at this time.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

260
ABNT20 KNHC 141156
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF CURACAO AND
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE FINAL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA...LOCATED
ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS
BORDER IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE ITS STRENGTH.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DISSIPATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA AND APPROXIMATELY 1125 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[wxman57]

Indeed....could someone get an email into the NHC and get an official response on this?

I don't believe you'll glean substantive details via that route.

In regards to the lack of an upgrade, it's important to recall that the NHC (by its nature) is not a purely scientific organization. They are also a life saving agent. The lack of an upgrade can be easily explained by costs and other factors. In addition, it's quite taxing to schedule reconnaissance missions on a frequent basis. Unfortunately (for science interests), the inconsistencies are the nature of the beast, and it will likely remain stagnant over the next several years.

True, but why jump on Nana when it was already in a weakening phase well out to sea? The first discussion says it MAY have been a TS earlier but was currently weakening. Just no consistency in naming.

This one's now dead, by the way. Shear is ripping it apart. LLC is moving NNW away from the convection. It's as dead as Nana..

[HURAKAN]

Bye, bye little guy!!

[HURAKAN]

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¡Adiós mi amigo!