ATL SIXTEEN: Advisories

[HURAKAN]

175
WTNT21 KNHC 141452
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA WESTWARD TO LIMON.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 83.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 83.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.4N 85.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.2N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 83.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

898
WTNT31 KNHC 141453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE BORDER BETWEEN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA WESTWARD TO LIMON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND A WEST
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...HOWEVER...
THE CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HONDURAS IF THERE IS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.6 N...83.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

246
WTNT41 KNHC 141458
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH
BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE. HOWEVER...IT
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN
HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD
APPEAR LIKELY. OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND
THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.6N 83.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 83.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 85.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.3N 87.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 16.2N 89.0W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 141743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM THE BORDER BETWEEN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WESTWARD
TO LIMON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES... 65 KM...NORTH OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...HOWEVER...THE CENTER
COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HONDURAS IF THERE IS ANY DEVIATION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...15.6 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6
WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 135 MILES...215
KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N...83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS. FOR THE
TIME BEING...WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS...WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING. A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.7N 83.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.9N 84.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 86.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 88.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
800 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WHOLE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA
AND FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...5 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1500 UTC WED OCT 15 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO
THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.8N 85.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 86.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.6N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.4N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 90.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 84.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

CONVECTION AROUND THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY MORE
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ITS CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS BUOY/HONDURAS STATION
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 265
DEGREES AT 4 KT. A SLOW MOTION WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
DRIVE THE CYCLONE INTO HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THREE DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN...THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASED INITIAL MOTION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE RATHER UNCERTAIN YESTERDAY...MAY BE
ISSUED WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE TODAY. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION...I.E. LOW VERTICAL
SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...AND A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HWRF AND GFDL MODELS' TRACKS REMAINING OFFSHORE
LONGER THAN UTILIZED HERE ALLOW THOSE MODELS TO INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION UP TO A 40-45 KT TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE DECAY
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS REMAIN JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD
FOR A TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION STILL IS
CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS...A
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL IF
THE CENTER AND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINBANDS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF HONDURAS AND
PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS CALL FOR DISSIPATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITHIN FOUR DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.8N 84.5W 25 KT...ON THE COAST
12HR VT 16/0000Z 15.8N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1200Z 15.8N 86.3W 35 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 17/0000Z 15.6N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.4N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING NEARLY NON-EXISTANT NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON IN
OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42056...A SHIP REPORT...AND QUIKSCAT/ASCAT
PASSES. AT LEAST A PORTION OF THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE EFFECTS
OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE MODERATE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE SHIP H3VR DID REPORT 33 KT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THIS OBSERVATION MAY BE A FEW KT HIGH AFTER EXAMINING
THE SHIP'S HISTORY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 30
KT...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOW INLAND OVER NE HONDURAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH HONDURAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALLOW FOR A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S POSITION AND
MOTION - 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME SPURIOUS TRACK OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF...CONTINUES
THE CYCLONE OFF TOWARD THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW
LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED UPON THIS SELECTED CONSENSUS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST TRACK...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS TO KEEP THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND MUCH OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER LAND...NO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGE STATISTICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...INTERACTION
OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO ITS NORTH MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED FOR AN
INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN A DAY OR TWO AND THEN COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THREE DAYS. ONE
POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF THIS CYCLONE MAY
REDEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS TIME.

THE MAIN RISKS FROM THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE THE HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS THAT MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.5N 85.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.4N 86.4W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.3N 87.7W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.3N 88.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.7N 89.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART