ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Sandy, though it looks like South FL will be in the clear based on the current model runs.. should we be at all worried about it in Miami?

The entire peninsula, especially central and south Florida, should keep an eye on it. Still, the shear is expected to be very high by the time it reaches us and therefore, it may be just a rain event. We need to keep an eye on it.

[Blown Away]

Florida? Am I missing something, isn't this heading into Central America/Mexico?

Have you seen the computer models?

Sandy, though it looks like South FL will be in the clear based on the current model runs.. should we be at all worried about it in Miami?

No way is SFL in the clear, the models have been shifting S and E since yesterday. If 91L develops it will be pushed across Florida by a trough so most of the energy will be on the SE side of the system.

[gatorcane]

the setup is very similar to Wilma but Wilma had a big head start on getting organized. I can't see this thing getting as strong as Wilma. It's likely 91L will struggle getting organized because it will interact with the Yucatan peninsula, then shear should get it when it moves into the SE/E GOM. I can see a it becoming a tropical storm but not a significant hurricane.

[N2Storms]

[quote="gatorcane"][quote="Blown_away"]I'm seeing an improving system this morning, I know the best track is 17N/87W, but I'm seeing the circulation center near 16.5N/86W drifting NW. The convection is starting top build along the SW side of the circulation. The entire envelope has good curvature and once 91L moves a bit farther N away from the coast it should improve even more.[/quote]

[quote]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

Indeed, I'm a bit surprised I don't see more Floridians on this board, the threat of a tropical system impacting the state is increasing ---

prediction: code red within 24 hours and many more storm2kers checking in over the next couple of days.[/quote]




We need some rain up here in the Panhandle in the worse way...I'd be following this a little more closely if it looked like we could get some weather out of it but with it trending farther and farther away from our area I'm probably going to be spending my time on the College Football Boards...

[gatorcane]

Looking at this close-up visible loop, I see a low center just north of Honduras or along the coast moving due west...I see no northward component to the movement. It may run out of real-estate if it keeps moving west.

What does everybody else see?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Blown Away]

the setup is very similar to Wilma but Wilma had a big head start on getting organized. I can't see this thing getting as strong as Wilma. It's likely 91L will struggle getting organized because it will interact with the Yucatan peninsula, then shear should get it when it moves into the SE/E GOM. I can see a it becoming a tropical storm but not a significant hurricane.

I agree TS or minimal hurricane at the most. A fast moving TS followed by a nice cool front over Hobe Sound would be a great way to end the 2008 Hurricane Season for me. Sorry, a little wishcasting.!

[Blown Away]

Looking at this close-up visible loop, I see a low center just north of Honduras or along the coast moving due west...I see no northward component to the movement. It may run out of real-estate if it keeps moving west.

What does everybody else see?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

IMO, I see the low center very near 16.7N/85.9W drifting WNW. Zoom in and look just NE of Roatan Island, that's where I think the low center is.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

15.8N-86.2W

Right on coast of Honduras.

Needs to pull up or it will lose strength over land (to form according to models).

[gatorcane]

Here is the 12Z GFS 500MB steering flow now:

Notice the light easterly winds in the NW Caribbean around a weak High centered over the Northern GOM. That is causing 91L to drift towards the west or WNW:



But by 48 hours look how the winds across the NW Caribbean and GOM shift to the SW and W as the High moves out into the Western Atlantic east of the Bahamas....that should cause 91L to bend more towards the north and then northeast as it rounds the western periphery of the High. The majority of the global guidance detects this mid-level steering change and why they drive 91L into Florida.

[Blown Away]

15.8N-86.2W
Right on coast of Honduras.
Needs to pull up or it will lose strength over land (to form according to models).

I still see the LLC near 16.7N/85.9W, watch the visible loop, zoom in, and you can see this feature drifting WNW. Maybe it's an eddy??

Visible Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[somethingfunny]

All I see is T.D. 16.

Bearwatch, but I'll be back tomorrow to check in.

[HURAKAN]

All I see is T.D. 16.

Bearwatch, but I'll be back tomorrow to check in.

TD 16 dissipated a long time ago. This system is not related in any way to 16.

[somethingfunny]

All I see is T.D. 16.

Bearwatch, but I'll be back tomorrow to check in.

TD 16 dissipated a long time ago. This system is not related in any way to 16.

I know....I'm saying I see a repeat scenario.

[HURAKAN]

Not really because TD 16 was never forecasted to move northward. Most, if not all, computer models agreed that it was going straight for Central America like it did.

[gatorcane]

Looks like some deep convection is popping on the western side of the LLC:

[ronjon]

I see a rotation near the east end of Rotan island near 16.4N-86W - appears to be drifting W-NW. Better organized today - if it can stay over water I see a tropical depression within the next 24 hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

It will be interesting to see what the 2:00PM EST TWO is going to say about this area.

[gatorcane]

winds are picking up at this buoy (42056) in the NW caribbean, although surface pressures are rising:

Latest observation that just came in shows E at 25.3 gusts 29 Knots

10 20 1550 E 25.3 29.1 4.9 6 4.9 ENE 30.03 +0.06 80.1 84.2 74.7 - - -

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[T'Bonz]

A lurking S. Floridian here.

Keeping a wary eye on it. I don't expect it to hit Fort Lauderdale, but until it is dissipated or safely away from us, I will monitor it.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE RISING AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

Code Yellow.