ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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Re:

#141 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:45 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow:

Good analyis but have you seen the last IR pics coming in from the past hour? See my post above yours. I also see it finally starting to gain some lattitude albeit it should still move ashore the Yucatan ultimately.


I don't see any increased organization, gatorcane. Just a disorganized mess of storms with a broad, weak area of low pressure and winds 5-15 kts in the region. 00Z models continue to forecast max winds over the next 5 days of 31 kts or less. Chances of this becoming Paloma appear to be quite low, and chances of a significant system hitting Florida look low given the extreme wind shear across the eastern Gulf later this week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#142 Postby boca » Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:12 pm

It looks like 91L is moving west and will meet its demise just like TD #16. We might have left over moisture tomorrow,but I'm thinking an organized rain storm will not be in Florida's future. My reasoning is that vorticity is moving inland and will take a lot of energy with it. The area east of 85w is just a tropical wave moving quickly to the west.I don't think that trough will be fast enough to lift this area northward before heading inland.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#143 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:91L continues to organize. Using this link you can clearly see big thunderstorms wrapping around the center but just within the past hour so the NHC has not had a chance to mention this just yet. Just click the Fronts checkbox to see the "L" in the pic and notice the thunderstorms wrapping around the Low as it drifts NW...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html


I agree, this system has been generally drifting due W most of the day, but tonight it seems 91L is drifting NW now. The convection is much improved compared to earlier today and is popping all around the low center. Shear will be strong in the GOM, but I don't think we can rule out a strong TS/Cat 1 at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#144 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:24 pm

Looks like the season may be over. Good news :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#145 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:37 pm

There's energy down there. We'll see if anything pulls it north.
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#146 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 21, 2008 3:37 am

Heaviest convection still over water, the center will
likely relocate to over the water I think, 150 miles east
of the Yucatan.
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Re:

#147 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 21, 2008 3:45 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Heaviest convection still over water, the center will
likely relocate to over the water I think, 150 miles east
of the Yucatan.



The LLC/mlc is close to the coast it appears. Meaning any movement towards the north which the models are forecasting=back over water. I think this could have a chance, give it about 40% at taken a run at it as it is moving northward. Some of the models show what I'm thinking in the model thread.
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#148 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 5:36 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#149 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 5:41 am

No sign of organization. If anything, less organized than 2 days ago. Just an area of thunderstorms lacking an LLC and not much of any circulation at any level. Wind shear appears high down there and it increases to the north. Probably no more than moisture that will stream northward up the front across Florida on Friday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#150 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:49 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#151 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 21, 2008 7:16 am

Latest. Convection continues to increase.

Image
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#152 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 7:54 am

Buoy 42056

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1147 29.9 kts E ( 90 deg true )

Pressure is rising.
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#153 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:34 am

Image
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#154 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:37 am

SHIP S 1200 17.40 -86.40 33 316 300 9.9 - 1.6 1.0 - - 29.77

29.77 inHg = 1008.1 mb
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Re:

#155 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:43 am

HURAKAN wrote:SHIP S 1200 17.40 -86.40 33 316 300 9.9 - 1.6 1.0 - - 29.77

29.77 inHg = 1008.1 mb


Is that a relocation of the low center?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#156 Postby caneman » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:45 am

Sure looks to be coming together to me. Wonder if a new LLC has developed or is developing under that blob
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#157 Postby caneman » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:48 am

Hurakan,

Don't know how to post as image. Would you? Here is link.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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#158 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:48 am

Image

Very strong shear.
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caneman

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#159 Postby caneman » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:49 am

yeah, shear induced. Foreast to let up any?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#160 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:51 am

caneman wrote:Hurakan,

Don't know how to post as image. Would you? Here is link.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


Image

To show the entire system is better to use a wider image. Just click on the image, obtain the URL, and use imageshack.us or photobucket.com or any other provider to post the image.
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