ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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fci
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#201 Postby fci » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:55 am

Oh, Jim......Where are you Jim??????????

H E L L O ?????
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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#202 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:36 am

There's a very weak center just inland in north Belize.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#203 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:41 am

cycloneye wrote:BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al912008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810221236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END



Sometimes, you don't need a doctor to say which way the wind is blowing. I think Bob Dylan wrote that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#204 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:01 am

1011 mb low inland just north of Belieze. Low is progged to move north. Have to look off the north coast of the Yuc when it gets there in 12-24 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#205 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:26 am

This system hasn't been an invest for over 36 hours now, shouldn't it be removed from the Active Storms area? It appears nothing will come of it. There may be a low forming on the Front in the NE Gulf Friday, but it won't be tropical and it won't be very strong.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#206 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:This system hasn't been an invest for over 36 hours now, shouldn't it be removed from the Active Storms area? It appears nothing will come of it. There may be a low forming on the Front in the NE Gulf Friday, but it won't be tropical and it won't be very strong.



Been moved to the archives.

You want tropical storm conditions in the US right now?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#207 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Oct 27, 2008 3:31 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I like the 12Z GFS (not too different from 0Z) of a non-tropical or mostly non-tropical low forming in the Gulf North of where the current disturbance is now. It'll be under 40 knots of shear, and 850 mb vorticity appears stretched in a way suggesting frontal features, as does the 850 mb and 700 mb relative humidities.

In 5 days, while the primary polar low is still up in Canada, this helps form a nice little secondary, right near NYC, with what appears to be screaming Southerly winds into New England.

Not tropical, but exciting, none the less.

Sustained winds on the coast sustained near 30 knots, easily gusting to 50 as suggested by GFS forecast sounding for Block Island

Image


Worked out just as expected...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
311 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

...STRONG WINDS TOMORROW...

.A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL FORM
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 55 MPH
LATE IN THE DAY.


/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0004.081028T1800Z-081029T1000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
NANTUCKET
352 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 2 PM AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25 TO
35 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55
OR 60 MPH POSSIBLE
.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING PROPERTY
DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

$$
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