ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS continues to show 91L heading into the GOM:

[Dean4Storms]

Just need to keep up with this one and not hit the 100 mph hurricane panic button folks, one run of one model doth not a hurricane make.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL brings it into the FL big bend...and the HWRF keeps it in the Carribean doing a triangular loop...

[captain east]

Anyone got the newest spaghetti models?



Pretty messy right now....

[Ivanhater]

[Blown Away]

Seems a deeper system goes north. 18z GFDL still showing almost a hurricane (74 mph) landfalling in the Florida Big Bend area.

[somethingfunny]

Anyone got the newest spaghetti models?



Pretty messy right now....

More of the models are starting to reverse course back into Honduras/Belize....and even if this thing manages to relocate and organize farther northeast, it's not looking like much of a threat to me anyway. NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE TRUSTED OR COUNTED UPON but I'm really not too worried about 91L except as a catalyst for a nice wet Nor'Easter this weekend.

This is probably a timed image but what is that spider-looking thing in the East Pacific below the Gulf of Tehuanhapec?

[jlauderdal]

Seems a deeper system goes north. 18z GFDL still showing almost a hurricane (74 mph) landfalling in the Florida Big Bend area.

i predict the only 74 mph winds anywhere near Florida in the the next 7 days will be in the jet stream

[Blown Away]

The convection is really popping tonight and this is the best this invest has looked so far. For the first time today I'm seeing more of a northerly component and it appears this system is going to skirt the Yucatan coast into the GOM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Nimbus]

When the energy focuses a little more, the dynamic elements that the models project will yield a more accurate solution.

Looks like the shear may let up some in the gulf before the next trough swings through, but who knows whether a LLC is going to form far enough NE for it to reach the gulf.

[Rainband]

just some much needed rain for Florida. Our wet season is over so we will welcome anything.

[jaxfladude]

GFDL has almost a major cane (107 mph) crossing Florida N of Tampa and exiting near Daytona in less than 5 days. WOW

roughly Five days out rule

[blp]

We finally have some decent agreement in the models on cyclogensis. Now the UKMET and NOGAPS have this low. I was waiting for these model to come around before I got really interested.

00Z UKMET finally on board with this and is quite aggressive. Might be over doing it a little. Looks like the model is pointing toward the big bend area.



00Z NOGAPS looks a little further west going right over the Panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

nogaps

[DESTRUCTION5]

no 6z GFDL or HWRF run this morning?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Shallow and deep BAM about 180º out of phase with each other, indicative of pretty instense shear...

[Sanibel]

Edit: Model pull up happening now.

[Blown Away]

Where are the 6z model runs???