Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

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HURAKAN
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Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:04 pm

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#2 Postby salmon123 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 12:51 am

LOOKS GREAT TO B ANOTHER HEALTHY SYSTEM
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Re: Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:05 pm

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Re: Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:16 pm

Looking really really good with nice convection, nice curving to. Likely a tropical cyclone soon!
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Re: Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:19 pm

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _id_1.html

Northly and westly wind on quickscat, with 35-40 knot wind flags. Tropical storm if it has a closed LLC. In which it very well have.
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:45 pm

It's moving west so it has plenty of warm water ahead.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:30 pm

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#8 Postby salmon123 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:26 am

CrazyC83 wrote:It's moving west so it has plenty of warm water ahead.



Image

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sorry CrazyC83 but if it moves westward it will found dry air and low sea temperature but nortward area has plenty of warm water .
Last edited by salmon123 on Wed Oct 22, 2008 5:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#9 Postby badkhan » Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:59 am

It looks to be moving a bit northwestward.
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Re: Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#10 Postby Crostorm » Wed Oct 22, 2008 6:34 pm

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Re: Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:48 pm

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:24 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 74.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF COCHIN, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT
IN A 221256Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS
BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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Re: Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

#13 Postby badkhan » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:03 am

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23- 10- 2008.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS issued at 0600 utc OF 23 oCTOBER, 2008 based on 0300 UTC of 23 OCTOBER 2008(.)

(2) THE FEEBLE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF KERALA-KARNATAKA COAST NOW LIES AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KERALA AND KARNATAKA COAST. IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE MARKED. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN 9.00N TO 15.00N AND LONG. 66.00E TO 73.00E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.


99A on 21st : http://modis-atmos.gsfc.nasa.gov/IMAGES ... rgb143.jpg
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#14 Postby salmon123 » Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:39 am

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSE STRENGTH .
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 24, 2008 10:58 am

24/1430 UTC 12.3N 73.5E T1.5/1.5 99A -- Arabian Sea
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#16 Postby wyq614 » Fri Oct 24, 2008 4:27 pm

Downgraded to poor
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Re:

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 24, 2008 4:28 pm

wyq614 wrote:Downgraded to poor


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
73.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 73.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED.
THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC, BUT
OUTFLOW FROM BAY OF BENGAL IS LIMITING OUTFLOW FOR THIS AREA
CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
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Re:

#18 Postby wyq614 » Fri Oct 24, 2008 6:59 pm

salmon123 wrote:LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSE STRENGTH .



Good prediction! If SALMON123 were in my forum, I would add 5 scores for him.
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#19 Postby badkhan » Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:48 am

Make that 2.

Minus 3 for shouting it out. :P
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