EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:58 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241441
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008

WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 30-50 KT BY CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN...HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ARE MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST...SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...MAKING THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AN
UNCERTAIN 325/07. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT...BUT I HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT
30 KT...BASED ON A 1258 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWS A FEW
AMBIGUITIES WITH 25-30 KT WINDS EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION.

IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SURVIVES...THE FORECAST REASONING IS
UNCHANGED. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...HOLDING THE
INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING
TO A REMNANT LOW AT 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER TODAY MAY INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.4N 106.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.9N 108.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 18.4N 110.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:46 pm

WTPZ42 KNHC 242032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED. ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED TO THE POINT THAT SAB DEEMED THE SYSTEM TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY AT 1800 UTC. AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MORE WESTWARD
COMPONENT TO THE SHORT TERM MOTION NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS FULLY DECOUPLED. FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW BAM MOST
CLOSELY...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 15.8N 107.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.3N 108.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.9N 109.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
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