EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:20 am

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep932008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810231126
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2008, DB, O, 2008102306, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932008
EP, 93, 2008102206, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1039W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2008102212, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1042W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2008102218, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1045W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2008102300, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1048W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2008102306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1052W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 25, 0, 0,


ABPZ20 KNHC 231142
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN/BERG

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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:28 am

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#3 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:15 am

Looks good.
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#4 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:02 am

WTPN21 PHNC 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 105.3W TO 16.7N 106.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 105.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 105.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 231239Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE
LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241500Z.//
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - Discussion

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:07 am

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:08 am

Best Track 12z:

EP, 93, 2008102312, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1053W, 30, 1008
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:13 am

Image

Someone has forgotten to update this!
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#8 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:13 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - Discussion

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:00 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - Discussion

#10 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:20 am

Special advisory out, now TD-17E
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - Discussion

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:22 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008
915 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...

AT 915 AM PDT...1615Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9
WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES...660 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 915 AM PDT POSITION...13.1 N...104.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:24 am

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#13 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:31 am

That turn to the West looks to be the result of the remnant low being carried in the low level flow.


I want to see the 12Z models, and see if either a mid-level circulation or enhanced mosisture might get carried toward Texas to meet the next front.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008
915 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMI AND
QUIKSCAT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT. A 1324 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING SOME RELIABLE
20-25 KT RETRIEVALS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS IN THE
CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS...ALONG WITH A SSMI PASS FROM 1239
UTC...SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD SURFACE CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
UNTIL IT BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND IS STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WILL INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A SHORT WINDOW IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY BEFORE A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
INCREASES THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO OVER 40 KNOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO
A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AND
DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1615Z 13.1N 104.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 13.9N 104.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 15.0N 104.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.3N 105.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 106.3W 25 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:39 pm

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#16 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:00 pm

It looks very organized. Wikipedia and Unisys as of 1 hour ago didn't even have TD17-E on their websites.
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:37 pm

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008
200 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2008

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT
1800 UTC...HOWEVER 25 KM ASCAT WIND RETRIEVALS IN A PASS FROM 1700
UTC SHOWED ONLY A COUPLE OF AMBIGUITIES WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO
30 KT. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS CYCLE.

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY...LEADING TO
THE DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THIS
REASONING IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE UKMET
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH BOTH SHOW THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CONTINUING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TURNS TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WITH THE SHEAR POISED TO INCREASE SOON...THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
HAVE A EVER SHRINKING WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STATUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KT AT
12 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT TIME...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 40 KT
AFTER 36 HOURS. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
BY 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 13.9N 104.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 14.6N 104.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.7N 105.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 107.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:47 pm

Best Track 0z:

EP, 17, 2008102400, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1054W, 30, 1008, TD
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:48 pm

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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:31 pm

WTPZ42 KNHC 240230
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AS
INDICATED BY A 0125 UTC SSMI PASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT
CHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 HOUR OR SO...THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE ENDING. A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOME EVEN MORE DETACHED. IT SHOULD
BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR EARLIER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/10. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD SLOW DOWN VERY SOON AND TURN MORE THE WEST AS IT
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.3N 105.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 15.8N 105.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 106.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 108.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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