ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

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RL3AO
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ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#1 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:49 pm

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al922008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810271823
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Image
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:55 pm

Image

Broad area of low pressure.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:02 pm

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#4 Postby CaneMaster » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:08 pm

See some slight spin near 10.3 N and 38.5 W on the water vapor IR
:)
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#5 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:34 pm

Ah, one last 2008 invest.

If it can avoid any Northward component of movement at all, shear won't be too bad.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#6 Postby jconsor » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:44 pm

I'm not very optimistic on 92L's chances for development until it can manage to push westward past the TUTT axis to near the Windward and Leeward Islands. This is likely to happen by late this week or the weekend. The BAM models, NOGAPS and UKMET have 92L continuing westward, whereas the GFS and ECMWF have 92L stalling and getting tangled up in the TUTT.

The unfavorable MJO over the next week or two also is another reason to be conservative on development chances.
Last edited by jconsor on Mon Oct 27, 2008 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby caribepr » Mon Oct 27, 2008 3:43 pm

jconsor, your lack of optimism is my hope for optimism! Shear, baby, shear.. 8-)
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#8 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:08 pm

Development chances look low. NHC says <20%. That actual number is probably closer to 1-2%. Yeah, it's less than 20%. Plenty of shear in its path and no organization. Just scattered convection as the wave interacts with an upper trof.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:33 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 272331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#10 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 272331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH


In other words - it's not likely to develop quickly and then winds become unfavorable for development in a couple of days, so no development is expected.
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#11 Postby caribepr » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:42 pm

<singing> I like it I like it...from your keyboard to Mother Nature's ears. And thank you, for giving attention to this. Yes...we're a little edgy, and I do a lot of weather reporting around where I live, so this is very, very helpful.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#12 Postby Rainband » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:10 am

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 272331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH


In other words - it's not likely to develop quickly and then winds become unfavorable for development in a couple of days, so no development is expected.
I think that's what he said but thanks for reinterating it. :lol:
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#13 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:58 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
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#14 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:59 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#15 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:43 am

The lack of 0Z and 6Z models, and no invest in the handy S2K map leads me to believe this has probably been dropped, and if I knew the URL where people get activated and inactivated invests, I'd post it here.

Looks like a possible center near 10ºN, 40ºW, but not a lot of storms near it, looks like SW shear.
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#16 Postby caribepr » Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:47 am

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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:51 am

It hasn't been updated but it hasn't been officially deactivated.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:42 am

Well,Best Track updated the position at 12:00 UTC:

AL, 92, 2008102812, , BEST, 0, 104N, 390W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0
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Re:

#19 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:21 pm

caribepr wrote:It's still up here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


That doesn't mean much, Omar and Marco were still listed there for quite a few days after they had dissipated. The web site is slow to remove old storms/invests. This one's dead. Just a weak mid-level spin in a high shear environment.
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#20 Postby caribepr » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:25 pm

Good! The dinghy goes back in the water tomorrow, then! I can't stand it anymore. 8-) (shhhhhhh!)
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