ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

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ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:52 pm

818
WHXX01 KWBC 271824
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1824 UTC MON OCT 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20081027 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081027 1800 081028 0600 081028 1800 081029 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.1N 37.2W 9.6N 38.9W 10.0N 40.7W 10.4N 42.2W
BAMD 9.1N 37.2W 9.8N 38.9W 10.5N 40.6W 11.4N 42.0W
BAMM 9.1N 37.2W 9.7N 38.8W 10.2N 40.3W 10.7N 41.5W
LBAR 9.1N 37.2W 9.8N 38.8W 10.8N 40.6W 11.8N 42.3W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081029 1800 081030 1800 081031 1800 081101 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 43.8W 12.0N 47.2W 13.0N 50.2W 13.6N 52.6W
BAMD 12.4N 43.3W 15.2N 46.4W 17.6N 48.5W 17.7N 49.7W
BAMM 11.2N 42.8W 12.8N 45.4W 14.4N 47.5W 15.0N 48.6W
LBAR 12.8N 43.6W 14.4N 44.4W 15.6N 42.0W 15.7N 37.1W
SHIP 58KTS 62KTS 57KTS 51KTS
DSHP 58KTS 62KTS 57KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 33.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:54 pm

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Re: ATL Invest 92L - Computer Models

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:57 pm

Code: Select all

   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  10/27/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)        3     6     5     9     9    11    15    19    32    32    28    32    26


If the shear forecast holds true, time is very limited.
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Re: ATL Invest 92L - Computer Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:28 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 272326
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.0 37.1 280./ 8.0
6 9.4 37.8 304./ 8.5
12 9.8 38.0 333./ 3.6
18 10.5 38.1 351./ 7.4
24 11.1 38.3 342./ 6.1
30 11.6 38.7 319./ 6.6
36 12.0 39.5 297./ 8.6
42 12.0 40.1 271./ 5.9
48 12.2 40.7 289./ 5.6
54 12.6 41.3 302./ 7.0
60 12.9 41.8 305./ 6.1
66 13.2 42.5 291./ 7.8
72 13.4 42.8 301./ 3.6
78 13.7 43.5 296./ 7.1
84 13.8 43.8 278./ 2.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 84 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:16 pm

GFDL:

Image

HWRF:

Image
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Re: ATL Invest 92L - Computer Models

#6 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:46 am

Just one model run and that's about it. Nothing to focus on, just a weak mid-level rotation in a region of strong wind shear.
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Re: ATL Invest 92L - Computer Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:28 pm

They ran a run at 18:00 UTC:

WHXX01 KWBC 291833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED OCT 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20081029 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081029 1800 081030 0600 081030 1800 081031 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 40.9W 11.6N 42.9W 12.4N 45.0W 13.1N 46.5W
BAMD 11.0N 40.9W 12.6N 41.8W 14.3N 42.3W 16.3N 42.4W
BAMM 11.0N 40.9W 11.7N 42.2W 12.5N 43.5W 13.3N 44.6W
LBAR 11.0N 40.9W 12.0N 41.4W 13.0N 41.9W 13.7N 42.0W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081031 1800 081101 1800 081102 1800 081103 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 47.7W 14.0N 50.0W 14.7N 52.4W 15.2N 55.5W
BAMD 18.4N 41.4W 21.6N 38.2W 24.5N 32.3W 27.6N 23.5W
BAMM 14.1N 45.2W 15.1N 46.0W 15.3N 47.6W 15.3N 49.9W
LBAR 14.3N 41.4W 15.6N 38.7W 18.4N 35.3W 22.5N 30.4W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 31KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 31KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 39.9W DIRM12 = 254DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

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#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:45 pm

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