EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm - discussion/models

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:51 am

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#22 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:59 am

POLO IS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RATHER TINY AREA OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AT A 2.5 CI NUMBER. WINDS IN SUCH SMALL
SYSTEMS COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED FROM DVORAK...BUT IN THE
ABSENCE OF IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
35 KT.


Too funny that Marco-Polo were both tiny storms...heck of a coincidence..
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:04 am

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#24 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:41 am

As far as I'm concerned, I believe that is an eye. It's in visible, IR *and* microwave, not sure what the NHC is waiting for aside from the fact they can't jump from 35 kt to 65 kt without good reason.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:50 am

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#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:40 am

I agree it is probably stronger using Marco as an analog. I'd say about 45-50 kt since it isn't that well defined.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm : discussion and models

#27 Postby Category 5 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:51 pm

I agree this is NOT a 35kt system.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:11 pm

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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:51 pm

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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm : discussion and models

#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:14 pm

WTPZ43 KNHC 032038
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008

DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN POLO HAS REMAINED MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME APPARENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DROPPED...THOUGH THE CI NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM. A 1337Z QUIKSCAT PASS DID CONFIRM THE RATHER TINY
STRUCTURE...20 NMI RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...OF THE
CYCLONE...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM
MARCO. THE QUIKSCAT ALSO PROVIDED A PEAK BELIEVABLE-LOOKING VECTOR
OF 40 KT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF RAINFALL CONTAMINATION...IT IS NOT
KNOWN IF THIS WAS A TRUE WIND OR SOMEWHAT INFLATED BECAUSE OF RAIN.
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER CONFIDENT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT...AS
POLO IS BEING STEERED BY A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.
A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN POLO
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THIS
TIME...THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE TO RECURVE POLO
AS A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. IN CONTRAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS INSTEAD
MOVE POLO AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING POLO IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS...ACCORDING TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS VECTORS OVER THE STORM INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
MAY ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR. THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE
ALSO NOT VERY CONDUCIVE WITH POLO MOVING OVER WARM SSTS BUT
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
NOW NONE ARE CALLING FOR POLO TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED UPON THE ICON MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
WEAKER THAN FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...
BECOMING MORE PLAUSIBLE...IS THAT POLO HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AND THAT IT MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER THAN
ADVERTISED...IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-EMERGE THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 9.2N 114.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 9.5N 115.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 10.1N 117.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 10.9N 119.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 11.7N 121.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 12.5N 124.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 13.0N 127.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 13.5N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:58 pm

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#32 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:39 pm

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040236
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE
CYCLONE IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE...WE HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THOSE ESTIMATES AT 35 KT. AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE
INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/12. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS DOES THE SPLIT IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH
THE HWRF AND GFDL INSISTING THAT A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE
WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THESE
MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT TAKES A WEAKER...SHALLOWER CYCLONE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND.
ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM
CONSENSUS...INCREASING THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BY 24 HOURS
AND HOLDING IT THERE THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF POLO WERE TO LOSE ITS
DEEP CONVECTION...IT WOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

POLO REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 20 NM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 9.5N 115.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 9.9N 117.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 10.7N 119.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 11.4N 120.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 11.9N 122.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 12.5N 125.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 13.0N 128.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 13.5N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:04 pm

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Most intense convection I have seen with this system.
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#34 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:04 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 NOV 2008 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 9:32:13 N Lon : 115:40:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.6 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -64.8C Cloud Region Temp : -22.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#35 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:29 am

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Polo is little no more. What a change!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:40 am

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT
10 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING POLO...WHICH IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. QUIKSCAT DATA AT
AROUND 0200 UTC HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SMALL CIRCULATION...BUT
SHOWED A COUPLE OF 35 KT VECTORS. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 280-285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12
KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING OR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. POLO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. THE
GFDL...HWRF...LBAR...BAMM...AND BAMD SHOW POLO TURNING NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH AS THESE MODELS KEEP A VERTICALLY COHERENT
CYCLONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT POLO
WILL NOT MAINTAIN VERTICAL COHERENCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE TROUGH.
SINCE THE STORM CURRENTLY HAS A SHEARED STRUCTURE...AND THE SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AFTER 36-48 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
THE LATTER SET OF MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS...AND LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WEST OF
125W...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST POLO TO ENCOUNTER THIS
FLOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM
MODEL. THERE ARE TWO ALTERNATE INTENSITY SCENARIOS. FIRST...THE
GDFL CALLS FOR POLO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HR. THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. SECOND...SINCE POLO IS VERY
SMALL...IT COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FASTER THAN FORECAST WHEN IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 9.6N 116.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 10.1N 118.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 10.8N 120.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 11.5N 121.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 11.9N 123.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 12.5N 126.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:29 am

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE CYCLONE...AND WE
ESTIMATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC
WERE 3.0 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND THE ESTIMATED
DISPLACEMENT OF THE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE
HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE NEW GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...DISCOUNTING THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT
OUTLIERS.

GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE...THE 12
HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND HELD THERE
THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY DAY 3 AND BEYOND...IN CLOSEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF POLO...IT
COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE
STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 9.9N 117.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 10.3N 119.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 10.9N 120.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 11.6N 122.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 12.0N 124.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 12.5N 127.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 13.0N 130.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 13.5N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:29 am

Polo is no Marco.

Image

TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
100 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:31 am

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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm : discussion and models

#40 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO A BAND EAST OF
THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED
ON 1800 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. GOES CLOUD TRACK
WINDS SHOW STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD POLO...SUGGESTING THAT ANY
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POLO TO STRENGTHEN WILL CLOSE SOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH POLO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD STEADY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AS THE
SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE OVER THE
CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS...WITH A SECOND LARGER INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TO OCCUR AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BY THAT TIME...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...POLO
COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

A JASON ALTIMETER PASS OVER POLO AROUND 1600 UTC WAS USEFUL IN
ANALYZING THE RADIUS OF 12-FOOT SEAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 10.2N 118.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 10.6N 120.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 11.2N 121.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 11.8N 123.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 12.3N 125.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 13.0N 128.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 13.5N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH
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