ATL: PALOMA - Models

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DESTRUCTION5
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#141 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:39 pm

Dont look now but the 18Z GFDL Destroys Central Cuba and Brings Paloma rright back to where she is RIGHT NOW....And Keeps her below 21N the whole time...
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#142 Postby El Nino » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:37 pm

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#143 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:06 pm

From what I see now is all the models are weakening Paloma to a TD or less in 4-5 days
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#144 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:17 pm



ALL 5 models have this making a hard west turn on day 5...if it were to go back into the caribbean-
that might have it stay intense- bad news folks. GFDL has now shifted, and GFDL and HWRF
each show a sharp west turn that takes place south of Florida south of Cuba per GFDL and near
FL's latitude per HWRF
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#145 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:25 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:


ALL 5 models have this making a hard west turn on day 5...if it were to go back into the caribbean-
that might have it stay intense- bad news folks. GFDL has now shifted, and GFDL and HWRF
each show a sharp west turn that takes place south of Florida south of Cuba per GFDL and near
FL's latitude per HWRF


The intensity of all those models is almost below TD at the end run.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#146 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:33 pm

Blown_away wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:


ALL 5 models have this making a hard west turn on day 5...if it were to go back into the caribbean-
that might have it stay intense- bad news folks. GFDL has now shifted, and GFDL and HWRF
each show a sharp west turn that takes place south of Florida south of Cuba per GFDL and near
FL's latitude per HWRF


The intensity of all those models is almost below TD at the end run.


Thank goodness for that!!! Yes that part is important, by day 5 this would be just an area of rain
with 20 mph breezes at most.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#147 Postby Crostorm » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:57 am

Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#148 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Nov 08, 2008 12:11 pm

12Z GFS takes Tropical WAVE Paloma into and up the ECFL...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#149 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 08, 2008 12:47 pm

12Z GFDL just out, poof over Eastern Cuba then remnants go back west over the Caribbean, never making it into the Atlantic. Yesterday, I was explaining my throughts that Paloma may never escape the Caribbean....
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#150 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 08, 2008 12:50 pm

12Z UKMET poof just before landfall in Cuba....
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#151 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:43 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET poof just before landfall in Cuba....


Well with just a few hours until landfall I don't think thats going to happen! According to recon we are dealing with a cat 4 145mph Hurricane right now. Its not going to just die out in a few hours!
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Re: Re:

#152 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:44 pm

Agree...the storm is 30 miles from landfall and the winds were increased to 145 mph.....not to mention the storm surge that is going to take place....that won't be diminished by a last minute weakening anyways (although it looks like we will see a landfalling Cat 4 again in Cuba...best case maybe a 3....not much of a 'best' case)

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET poof just before landfall in Cuba....


Well with just a few hours until landfall I don't think thats going to happen! According to recon we are dealing with a cat 4 145mph Hurricane right now. Its not going to just die out in a few hours!
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#153 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 09, 2008 10:17 am

Models looping north of Cuba are incorrect. Stall over Cuba. Stopped on a dime.


Lollipop for Gatorcane and never escapes the caribbean.
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#154 Postby O Town » Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:14 am

Look! Its the Paloma spider..... :P

Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#155 Postby CaneMaster » Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:26 am

LMAO that is great, why don't they just say "umm hey look, it's like this, we don't know where this thing is heading." Instead the models just say look man it can go anywhere north.. south.. east. west... it can go anywhere, ... ......
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#156 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 10, 2008 3:13 pm

If you are a GFS believer, this is the most bullish I have seen on it redeveloping Paloma's remnants (12Z run shown below). I like the GFS but do not agree Paloma will regenerate like this. The only model that redevelops Paloma is the GFS but no other models do so it makes me question what the GFS is seeing.

Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#157 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 10, 2008 4:53 pm

GFS 18Z....POOF.

Bye-bye Paloma.
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