ATL: PALOMA - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC north through Western/Central Cuba and bends sharply east south of Southern Florida

[jinftl]

Be interesting to see next set of models run...from Dr. Jeff Masters this morning...


Currently, no models are showing a threat to Florida or the Bahamas from 93L, but that could change with the next set of model runs, after the center re-formation is taken into account.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1144

[gatorcane]

Be interesting to see next set of models run...from Dr. Jeff Masters this morning...


Currently, no models are showing a threat to Florida or the Bahamas from 93L, but that could change with the next set of model runs, after the center re-formation is taken into account.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1144

I don't think its going to matter here for Florida. While steering currents are light across the WCAR up to the GOM, winds across all levels are going to shift to the West and eventually WNW as a trough moves through the Eastern CONUS this weekend. That should keep 93L or whatever comes of it South and East of Florida even if the center relocates farther north.

12Z GFS and GFDL have joined the ECMWF in bringing 93L through Central Cuba or Eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas. Threat to Cuba and Bahamas (SE Bahamas) increasing.

[gatorcane]

The latest ECMWF is out...

It takes 93L NW from just W of Jamaica to the Western tip of Cuba/Yucatan Channel and across the Florida Straits into the NW Bahamas, but as a weak Low. I have to say this is a drastic change in reasoning from previous runs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8101400!!/

[Vortex]

trends are becoming quite interesting..While possible Paola should stay east of southern florida the trends are closer to souther florida/keys. Paola could bring in some squally weather across the extreme se/keys..awaiting the 18z runs


edited by vbhoutex to add the word possible. This is currently still Invest 93L and should be called as such until it is officially called by NHC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

trends are becoming quite interesting..While possible Paola should stay east of southern florida the trends are closer to souther florida/keys. Paola could bring in some squally weather across the extreme se/keys..awaiting the 18z runs


edited by vbhoutex to add the word possible. This is currently still Invest 93L and should be called as such until it is officially called by NHC.

I thought it would be Paloma if named....

[wxman57]

trends are becoming quite interesting..While possible Paloma should stay east of southern Florida the trends are closer to southern florida/keys. Paloma could bring in some squally weather across the extreme se/keys..awaiting the 18z runs


edited by vbhoutex to add the word possible. This is currently still Invest 93L and should be called as such until it is officially called by NHC.

With a cold front forecast to be well south of Florida by Saturday night and a wall of westerly shear north of what may become Paloma, this will likely be an asymmetrical storm with most of the convection east of the track rather than to the north and west (across the frontal boundary). So you may see nothing in south Florida if the current models are correct in predicting the NE turn across central to eastern Cuba.

[gatorcane]

trends are becoming quite interesting..While possible Paloma should stay east of southern Florida the trends are closer to southern florida/keys. Paloma could bring in some squally weather across the extreme se/keys..awaiting the 18z runs


edited by vbhoutex to add the word possible. This is currently still Invest 93L and should be called as such until it is officially called by NHC.

With a cold front forecast to be well south of Florida by Saturday night and a wall of westerly shear north of what may become Paloma, this will likely be an asymmetrical storm with most of the convection east of the track rather than to the north and west (across the frontal boundary). So you may see nothing in south Florida if the current models are correct in predicting the NE turn across central to eastern Cuba.

I generally agree on a NE turn into Central Cuba/Bahamas but one interesting model trend from the European guidance (both 12Z UKMET and ECMWF) is that they start moving 93L to the NE then stall it briefly before turning it back NW towards Western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel area as some narrow ridging builds in north of 93L.

They also slow down 93Ls northward moverment over the next several days quite a bit. Looking at 500MB steering analysis I *think* what the latest ECMWF and UKMET are suggesting 93L does not get yanked NE by the trough because 93L moves too slowly north and does not gain enough lattitude quick enough. Then a H5 ridge develops over Bahamas/Cuba blocking 93Ls NE progress and shoving it NW...then another even more amplified trough shows up around 240 hours to yank 93L NE once and for all.

I still buy the exit NE with the first trough scenario depicted by GFDL and HWRF but it interesting to note what the European models are showing as of their 12Z runs.

[jinftl]

The reasoning behind not forecasting a florida threat is very sound...and right now I agree…the one thing to keep in mind is that with a system that has yet to develop, the models are as good as the data they have at the time the model is run. Center reformations, development happening earlier or later than the model is forecasting, slight changes in upper conditions downstream…all could play a role in a much different system (in terms of strength, heading, or even whether a not anything forms at all) than currently forecast.

Nothing right now would indicate a florida threat….but nothing indicates such a large ‘miss’ (given the margin of error that many hours out) that at least until we get a developed center and some consistent model runs, we can sound the ‘all clear’ on yet either. Aside from Florida, folks from Jamaica, the Cayman Island, Cuba, Hispanola, and the Bahamas need to keep a watchful eye…but just as I wouldn’t sound the ‘all clear’ for florida, I would not go the other direction and say a significant storm will be effecting any or all of these areas yet either.

[gatorcane]

The reasoning behind not forecasting a florida threat is very sound...and right now I agree…the one thing to keep in mind is that with a system that has yet to develop, the models are as good as the data they have at the time the model is run. Center reformations, development happening earlier or later than the model is forecasting, slight changes in upper conditions downstream…all could play a role in a much different system (in terms of strength, heading, or even whether a not anything forms at all) than currently forecast.

Nothing right now would indicate a florida threat….but nothing indicates such a large ‘miss’ (given the margin of error that many hours out) that at least until we get a developed center and some consistent model runs, we can sound the ‘all clear’ on yet either. Aside from Florida, folks from Jamaica, the Cayman Island, Cuba, Hispanola, and the Bahamas need to keep a watchful eye…but just as I wouldn’t sound the ‘all clear’ for florida, I would not go the other direction and say a significant storm will be effecting any or all of these areas yet either.

Latest NWS Miami discussion have not committed to any solution yet:

BEYOND SUN...SOME WAFFLING OF LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO WHAT WILL
HAPPEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE S GREAT PLAINS THEN NE INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB GETS PULLED NORTHWARD. WILL
THIS GO E INTO THE ATLC WITH THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE/INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN BEING E OF S FLA...OR...INTO THE GULF WITH S FLA
BEING UNDER THE THREAT OF INCREASED MOISTURE/CHANCES OF RAIN TUE.
BY WED...THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND HIGH PRES REBUILDS AGAIN OVER
THE AREA. UNTIL SITUATIONS BECOME MORE STABLE IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...WILL KEEP THE STATUS QUO IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Derek Ortt]

often, these storms track farther east that initially predicted. Just look at Omar

[jinftl]

any reason to change your track thinking from yesterday (cuba/bahamas...dreamin' if you think florida)?

often, these storms track farther east that initially predicted. Just look at Omar

[wxman57]

New GFDL is east of Caymans then turning NE-ENE across eastern Cuba. Trend is faster forward speed beyond day 3.

[blp]

I see less agreement tonight in the models.

00Z GFDL has shifted further North, now makes the NE turn in the Florida Straits.



It is actually somewhat similar to the 00Z CMC. Not that does not means much considering the CMC's track record with tropical systems.



00Z GFS has it missing the first trough and just sitting south of Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

00Z UKMET is following the GFS on missing the trough.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00Z HWRF is now the only one showing this getting picked up by the trough and heading ENE over eastern Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[O Town]

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

93L will not even come close to Florida because the cold front will push thru Florida on Sat therefore turning 93L NE across Central Cuba and thru the Bahamas. I was counting on the moisture because its been dry as a bone here.

[Blown Away]

93L will not even come close to Florida because the cold front will push thru Florida on Sat therefore turning 93L NE across Central Cuba and thru the Bahamas. I was counting on the moisture because its been dry as a bone here.

Some of the models are showing 93L missing this trough and meandering near Cuba, so I don't think it is a slam dunk 93L shoots off to the NE with the trough coming this weekend.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow. Paloma. Where did they get that name? Can't say I ever knew anyone with that name. Looks like soon to be though. As for models. They mean nothing till there is a fixed point. Not a "broad area of low pressure". Maybe will get some rain from soon to be Paloma . Don't think much else here in S. Fl.

[hial2]

Wow. Paloma. Where did they get that name? Can't say I ever knew anyone with that name.

"Paloma" means "dove" in spanish..off the top of my head, Picasso's daughter is named Paloma..

[boca]

93L will not even come close to Florida because the cold front will push thru Florida on Sat therefore turning 93L NE across Central Cuba and thru the Bahamas. I was counting on the moisture because its been dry as a bone here.

Some of the models are showing 93L missing this trough and meandering near Cuba, so I don't think it is a slam dunk 93L shoots off to the NE with the trough coming this weekend.

Look what O Town posted above with the model plots ,its consistent plus its November with the westerlies droping south.