ATL: PALOMA - Models

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 17 - Models

#101 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:43 pm

Here is what Derek is talking about.

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 17 - Models

#102 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:50 pm

Not going to happen. :wink:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 17 - Models

#103 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:52 pm

The GFDL has been consistently showing a major cane since yesterday.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#104 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:28 am

Well its the GFDL/HWRF/BAMD vs the GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF.

The former predicts a deep, vertically stacked hurricane that "feels" the trough better being steered more by the mid-level flow with an ejection NE out through Cuba/Bahamas and the Atlantic.

The latter suggests a Paloma that gets its mid-level structure sheared apart leaving a low-level low steered by a low-level ridge more NW.

It's going to be interesting what models are correct, I'm leaning towards the GFDL/HWRF/BAMD at this time.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#105 Postby Blown Away » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:33 am

Image

Image

GFDL & HWRF shift a bit E and GFS shifts W.
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#106 Postby Nimbus » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:59 am

I still don't see a "digging* front moving south of 30 yet in the WV imagery there is a high over Alabama at the moment.

It does look like Paloma will intensify quite a bit before the jet gets a chance to shear her and that should make her a trough magnet.

High clouds already streaming over south Florida from Paloma's outflow.
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Re:

#107 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 06, 2008 11:58 am

Nimbus wrote:I still don't see a "digging* front moving south of 30 yet in the WV imagery there is a high over Alabama at the moment.

It does look like Paloma will intensify quite a bit before the jet gets a chance to shear her and that should make her a trough magnet.

High clouds already streaming over south Florida from Paloma's outflow.


It will dig, its a HUGE trough -- in 24 hours or so you should really see the digging, all mid and upper-level winds will become 60-80K+ anywhere north of about 20N...Paloma will be headed for a warzone in a couple of days and should get pulverized by shear.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#108 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:58 pm

Check out the crazy Canadian model track. The 12Z moves Paloma N then bend to the E then stops it (in "mid air" mind you, reminds me of that Seinfeld episode) then moves it back due West towards the Yucatan...yeah right :lol:

The 12Z UKMET does a loop in the NW Caribbean sending Paloma back west towards the Yucatan also...

Animation:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC at 144 hours:
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#109 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:21 pm

12Z GFDL and HWRF Stand thier ground with Major Canes going thru Central Cuba and the Central bahamas out to Sea...
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#110 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:23 pm

Image
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#111 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:23 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#112 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:46 pm

12Z GFS 250MB wind forecast for Sunday morning. Note the 60-80kt WSW-W winds from Cuba to south Florida this weekend:

Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#113 Postby Blown Away » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:55 pm

Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#114 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:07 pm

12 UTC Euro just out....keeps Paloma behind and has it missing the trough but as a weak, sheared system. It actually has the low in the FL straits early next week but weak.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#115 Postby jinftl » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:49 pm

Almost appears as if the models shown are splitting into 2 camps....one showing the progression off to the ne, the other showing something of a stall and loop to the w or nw


Blown_away wrote:Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#116 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:55 pm

NAM (not the best model) loops it also and at 84 hours here it is:

Image
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#117 Postby Sanibel » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:16 pm

Good test for GFDL reliability vs loop models.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#118 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 07, 2008 7:28 am

Image

The NHC is putting alot of confidence in the GFDL and HWRF. It's pretty clear if the GFS/Nogaps/Ukmet/NGFDL verify there won't be much left but a heavily sheared Paloma. Looking at the end run of the HWRF I see a sign of a loop and/or stall, so I'm very interested to see the next HWRF to see if this model comes on board with the other models that have Paloma missing the trough.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#119 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:00 am

I have a feeling the Paloma getting rapidly ejected out to sea may be changing.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Models

#120 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:49 am

There really isn't much uncertainty in the models, except for the NOGAPS which doesn't have a clue where Paloma is going or where any other storm was going this season. Check out the model plots from early in Paloma's track and now. The NOGAPS and NOGAPS-based GFDL took Paloma SW into Nicaragua. Remember, the NOGAPS took Gustav NE across the DR and out to sea? NOGAPS output is almost always exactly opposite all other models. Just a terrible tropical model, and it's the only one that moves Paloma NW into the Gulf (and into the jet stream). If there was any threat to Florida, the NHC would be all over it.

From 18Z on Nov. 5th:
Image

From Today - 12Z Nov. 7th:
Image
Last edited by wxman57 on Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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