ATL: PALOMA - Models

[Derek Ortt]

This is likely another Cuban/Bahamian event

[wxman57]

Agree, Derek. This system isn't going to Florida. To get an idea what it may be facing as it nears Cuba late this week, I plotted the 12Z GFS 700-400mb streamlines (purple) and 200mb winds (yellow barbs) for 12Z Saturday and 12Z Sunday. Note the very strong upper-level winds (i.e. shear) across Cuba northward. Also note the trof digging across South Florida late Saturday which would take the system NE-ENE toward eastern Cuba and the eastern Bahamas.

Saturday:


Sunday:

[jinftl]

Cuba/Bahamas seems plausible...but not unreasonable that such a track would raise at least an eyebrow for floridians...even if it is meterologically impossible given the upper air sterring patterns and dynamics...perhaps 'improbable as of right now' is more accurate than 'impossible'...famous last words

[wyq614]

Well, my professors and I are keeping an eye on this system. Hope it will not come, as Cuba's reconstruction is still underway and incomplete.

But a otro lado, nunca he experimentado un típico ciclón tropical.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS just still has 93L in the NW Caribbean even at 144 hours.

It looks like the trough leave 93L behind on this run.

Then Bones comes out at 156 hours and claims it dies in the NW caribbean...poof, probably too much dry air and shear

[Blown Away]

WOW, the 18z GFDL is now showing a Cat 4 145mph hurricane moving towards Central Cuba in 126 hours, thereafter is does appear it will miss SFL to the E. I know/hope this is just fantasy.



18z HWRF is now showing a Cat 3 120mph hurricane moving towards E Central Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Latest 18Z Guidance. GFDL shifts right but BAMD shifts left. UKMET still NW. Those models going out beyond 120 hours show the NE bend into Central/Eastern Cuba:

[Blown Away]

The 12z TAFB does not agree with the GFDL and HWRF in regards to the initial track, the TAFB wants to take 93L more NW making a brief landfall in CA the moving into the NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

That's the 12Z TAFB -- I imagine the updated TAFB will probably show 93L a bit more right of that position heading NNW or North.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF coming out doesn't show a whole lot of movement.



Yes, it is the WRF, but I'll be going to bed before the GFS comes out.

Edit to add 78 hour WRF for comparison

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of the better 00Z models. BAM models, NAM, and NOGAPS removed. Quite good agreement in a northerly track then a NE turn by day 4 as the cold front approaches. Question is, will the turn take it into central Cuba or eastern Cuba? I'd put my money farther east - eastern Cuba. Note that both the GFDL and HWRF take it to a major hurricane with 125-130 kt winds, though both are much too fast in developing it. I do think that if it becomes a TS that there may be a good chance of it becoming a hurricane:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Slow development is possible. But no cat3,4,5 cane. Maybe a tropical storm or weak cat1 hurricane tops. There is a chance that the nhc won't upgrade or have to upgrade.

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GFS brings 93L into the NW Caribbean sea through Western Cuba and Florida, but by the time it reaches Florida it is no longer a low, just increased moisture and rain showers ahead of a front. I'm not sure if I buy the GFS, still thinking Florida does not receive any rain from 93L.

[jinftl]

Don't forget....ike was 'only a cat 2'...of course 93L is not ike, but my point is that we have seen time and again how tropical storms and 'weak hurricanes' can be ever bit as damaging and deadly as a major if they hit the 'wrong' place....highly populated, prone to surge flooding, mudslides, etc.

Areas like Cuba and Hispanola have had a punishing season...a slow-moving ts would unleash more damage and flooding with excessive rain. As of now, the bigger threat that 93L poses has less to do with wind speed and more to do with flooding potential....but i echo your sentiment 100%...maybe this system will be a non-event and dissipate before it can develop more.

Slow development is possible. But no cat3,4,5 cane. Maybe a tropical storm or weak cat1 hurricane tops. There is a chance that the nhc won't upgrade or have to upgrade.

[Nimbus]

Persistent convection over the last 12 hours so I guess its almost time to start looking for a LLC.
The models are still not sure where this is going, certainly monsoon rains could be a threat for Cuba.

I think south Florida could see some heavy rain from this even if it is only from the outer bands as the system moves across Cuba. Has the shear forecast changed any?

[wxman57]

Persistent convection over the last 12 hours so I guess its almost time to start looking for a LLC.
The models are still not sure where this is going, certainly monsoon rains could be a threat for Cuba.

I think south Florida could see some heavy rain from this even if it is only from the outer bands as the system moves across Cuba. Has the shear forecast changed any?

Actually, it's had an LLC for 3 days now, just not much convection around it. With such strong westerly winds aloft across south Florida and northern Cuba later this week, most of the convection will be right of the track rather than behind the cold front into south Florida.

[gatorcane]

NAM just out -- farther west in this run.

12Z (new run)



Here is the latest guidance. The LGEM has shifted with the GFS in bringing 93L towards Western Cuba, notice several models are trying to allow 93L to escape the trough this weekend and meander around in the NW Caribbean. The deep BAM is the only model that wants to yank here ENE now albeit several model runs have not gone out past 120 hours yet.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS brings the outer edges to southern FLorida on this run while keeping 93L south of Florida passing slowly through Western and Central Cuba, though the most intense rainfall is south and east of florida.

[Blown Away]

The 12z GFS was a weird run, it moves 93L over Central Cuba and then the low meanders around just N of Cuba and to the SE of SFL for a while.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Looking at the expected steering patterns, I expect to see more models take 93L through Central/Eastern Cuba and NE....as the week goes on...coincidentally following climatology very closely.