MED: Another weak cyclone?

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

MED: Another weak cyclone?

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:28 am

Interesting system moving over the island right now. The sst's are very "low" for tropical cyclone development, I would think about 68-72 degrees. But on the other hand it has good convection near the center with "outflow" out of most quads. I don't know if its a tropical cyclone, but it kind of looks like one, so it needs to be noted.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#2 Postby Sanibel » Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:48 am

Don't think it could be tropical over 70* SST's. Spain can use every drop of rain it gets.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:56 am

it could be tropical over those waters

do not pay attention to the SST. The variable that matters is the temp DIFFERENCE between the SST and tropopause
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28969
Age: 72
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#4 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:47 am

Derek Ortt wrote:it could be tropical over those waters

do not pay attention to the SST. The variable that matters is the temp DIFFERENCE between the SST and tropopause


What? Can you explain please?
0 likes   

User avatar
Aslkahuna
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4550
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:00 pm
Location: Tucson, AZ
Contact:

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#5 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:06 pm

I believe what he is referring to is the ability of the atmosphere to develop and maintain the deep convection need for a Tropical Cyclone.

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Hampton, Virginia

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#6 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:39 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it could be tropical over those waters

do not pay attention to the SST. The variable that matters is the temp DIFFERENCE between the SST and tropopause


What? Can you explain please?



The temp difference between the water and the tropopause is more important than the SST's alone because a steep gradient(difference in temp between the two with the surface being warmest of course) creates instability, resulting in convection that is needed to fuel a TC.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:12 am

vbhoutex wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it could be tropical over those waters

do not pay attention to the SST. The variable that matters is the temp DIFFERENCE between the SST and tropopause


What? Can you explain please?


it's the vertical temperature gradient that determines instability. If it is very cold aloft, te SST can be cooler, yet there is sufficient instability to allow for a TC
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28969
Age: 72
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#8 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Nov 07, 2008 4:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it could be tropical over those waters

do not pay attention to the SST. The variable that matters is the temp DIFFERENCE between the SST and tropopause


What? Can you explain please?


it's the vertical temperature gradient that determines instability. If it is very cold aloft, te SST can be cooler, yet there is sufficient instability to allow for a TC



Thanks Derek!!
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: MED: Another weak cyclone?

#9 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:30 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it could be tropical over those waters

do not pay attention to the SST. The variable that matters is the temp DIFFERENCE between the SST and tropopause


What? Can you explain please?


I think the reason Epsilon was able to maintain itself over fairly cold waters is because the upper atmosphere was really cold.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests