WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:06 am

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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 05, 2008 2:37 pm

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N 126.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILLIPINES. RECENT
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
EVIDENT IN A 051323Z ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATES WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MINDANAO, PHILLIPINES. THE LLCC IS
UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:14 pm

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Looking well organized.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W - Discussion

#4 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:31 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 127E WEST SLOWLY.
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PAGASA TD Quinta (93W)

#5 Postby Iune » Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:59 pm

Named Quinta
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#6 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:16 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6N
126.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO CIRRUS AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND. A STATION NEAR THE CENTER RECORDED PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 MB IN
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
AN ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:23 am

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Interesting system.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:26 am

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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:35 pm

06/1430 UTC 11.7N 120.8E T2.5/2.5 93W -- West Pacific

WTPN21 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 121.8E TO 15.2N 115.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 121.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6N
123.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER AND IS NOW
ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE SOME OF THE
WIDE-SCALE BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST HAS DISSIPATED, A SMALLER
OUTER BAND CAN NOW BE SEEN WRAPPING TOWARD THE CENTER IN INFRARED
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A STATION ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM
RECORDED PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE
REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN ANTICYCLONE
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071500Z.//
NNNN

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:36 pm

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#11 Postby wyq614 » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:12 pm

Upgraded to 24W, should update the title.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W (PAGASA: TD Quinta) - Discussion TCFA

#12 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:33 pm

Now a TD.

WWJP25 RJTD 061800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 47N 140E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 47N 140E TO 46N 144E 45N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 47N 140E TO 43N 137E 40N 130E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 49N 142E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 48N 178E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
AT 33N 135E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 40 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 12.3N 120.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER YELLOW SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 58N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 33N 160E EAST 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 113E TO 28N 117E 30N 120E 30N 129E 33N 135E
33N 140E 33N 144E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W (PAGASA: TD Quinta) - Discussion TCFA

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:32 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061451Z NOV 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 120.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 120.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.4N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.6N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.3N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.4N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.2N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.5N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILLIPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS IT HAS MOVED OVER WATER. A
RECENT 061306Z ASCAT INDICATES A SMALL, WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH 30
KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING, HOWEVER AS AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA IT WILL BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGING AND CREATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE TROUGH FILLS
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND HELP TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO VIETNAM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
DEVELOPEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48 AT WHICH POINT INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW FURTHER DEVELOPEMENT AND LEAD TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS LANDFALL. FURTHER
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED UPON LANDFALL. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIMITED BUT SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO IS PROBABLE. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT AT LATER TAUS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND RECURVES
TD 24W NORTHWARD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 061451Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 061500) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:38 pm

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#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:44 pm

Is that an eye trying to form?
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:08 pm

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Looks like a TS.
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#17 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:53 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 12.6N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 13.9N 116.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#18 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:53 pm

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  06 NOV 2008    Time : 233000 UTC
      Lat :   13:23:55 N     Lon :  118:43:23 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                2.7     3.0     4.0

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp : -62.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -63.2C

 Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in BLACK   

 Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   


CIMSS ADT raw-T suggests typhoon strength.
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 10:12 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 118.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 118.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.4N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.5N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.1N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.3N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.9N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.9N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 117.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 07, 2008 7:49 am

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