ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA LASHING GRAND CAYMAN WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS...
...NOW HEADING TOWARD LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN END OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC SATURDAY MORNING...AND
BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...
130 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED FROM AMATEUR/HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON GRAND CAYMAN DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS. MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...19.1 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:05 pm

Came out late.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080301
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

PALOMA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...HAVING STRENGTHENED 15
KT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND 70 KT IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE LAST AIR
FORCE RECON PASS THROUGH THE EYE INDICATED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF
964 MB...700 MB PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT...AND DROPSONDE
MEASUREMENT EQUATING TO A 101 KT SURFACE WIND...AND A SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND OF 101 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THESE DATA EASILY
SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE. THE EYE HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/06 KT. PALOMA HAS FINALLY MADE
THE LONG ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. AS PALOMA COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...A
CONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK OUT TO THAT
TIME AND BEYOND IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A BIFURCATION IN THE NHC
MODEL SUITE WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS MODELS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING PALOMA AND TURNING IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA BY 36 TO 48
HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER CYCLONE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BASED ON
THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM RECON AIRCRAFT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. BY 72 HOURS...EVEN IF PALOMA
REMAINS VERTICALLY INTACT...THE HURRICANE'S FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
TO DECOUPLE...INDUCING RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.

SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO
AFFECT PALOMA UNTIL AROUND 12 HOURS...SO THERE IS STILL A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
BEFORE IT REACHES LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. HOWEVER...BY 24
HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO NOT MAKE
PALOMA A 105-KT HURRICANE UNTIL 24-36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH IT IS
ALREADY OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THOSE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED
GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PALOMA AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 19.1N 80.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 19.8N 80.3W 100 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 79.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 21.2N 78.0W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 22.4N 76.2W 40 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 76.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 76.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 08, 2008 12:44 am

HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...CENTER OF DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE PALOMA APPROACHING LITTLE
CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...80 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 40 MILES...
65 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY THIS EVENING. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
PALOMA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS. MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 100 AM EST POSITION...19.3 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#24 Postby Crostorm » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:43 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080832
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EYE OF PALOMA NEAR LITTLE CAYMAN...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ISSUED...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND SANTIAGO DE
CUBA.

AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF
LITTLE CAYMAN. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES...115 KM...
EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR
NEAR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...
205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 400 AM EST POSITION...19.5 N...80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#25 Postby Crostorm » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:36 am

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080905
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO 950 MB. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 122 KT...AND TWO ESTIMATES OF 105 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 110 KT. THIS INTENSITY IS LESS THAN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 127 KT FROM SAB...WHICH
SUGGESTS PALOMA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 050/06. PALOMA IS BEING STEERED
NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH
OF PALOMA. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF PALOMA. IF THIS FORECAST EVOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BY 96-120 HR IT WOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THIS WOULD BE FOR
PALOMA TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS SOME SORT OF WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72
HR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL 120 HR POSITIONS
THAT RANGES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE HWRF...WHICH
FORECAST PALOMA TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT IT DOES NOT GET
CAUGHT UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. SINCE THIS COULD HAPPEN IF
PALOMA MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
WILL NOT FULLY FOLLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION FORECASTS. INSTEAD...IT
SHOWS ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW THAT PALOMA
HAS ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS TO STRENGTHEN. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE JET DATA SHOW WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 250-500 MB. THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO
ABOUT 40 KT IN ABOUT 24 HR AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO STEADILY WEAKEN...
WITH THE WEAKENING BEING ACCELERATED BY PASSAGE OVER CUBA IN 24-36
HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...CALLING FOR PALOMA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 48
HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 19.5N 80.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 20.1N 79.4W 110 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 20.8N 78.2W 95 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
36HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 11/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 35 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 12/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/0600Z 23.0N 76.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#26 Postby AJC3 » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:12 am

TNT62 KNHC 081009
TCUAT2

HURRICANE PALOMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
508 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

SHORTLY BEFORE 500 AM EST...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE
PALOMA HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH...215 KM/HR. PALOMA IS NOW AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.

DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:51 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081148
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF HOLGUIN AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CAYMAN BRAC. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LITTLE
CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC THIS MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...19.7 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2008 9:57 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
TAKES AIM AT CUBA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND HOLGUIN AND
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM
...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM CAYMAN BRAC THIS
MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 17 TO 23 FEET...ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER LITTLE CAYMAN...CAYMAN BRAC...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
GRAND CAYMAN.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...19.9 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 08, 2008 9:57 am

440
WTNT42 KNHC 081456
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE SUGGESTED THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO LEAST 943 MB. IN ADDITION...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE WERE 134 KT WITH SFMR READINGS OF 127
KT...THOUGH THE LATTER VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED DUE TO
SHOALING AROUND LITTLE CAYMAN/CAYMAN BRAC. SINCE THE PLANE
DEPARTED...CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...SO PERHAPS
PALOMA'S INTENSITY HAS PEAKED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120
KT...AND THE HURRICANE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER A FEW
HOURS AGO. TWO MORE PLANES WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST
THAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH SHEAR
THAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY...SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP
THROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A
BLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO
BE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM...REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC
FORECAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE
FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN'T TOO
FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.

EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OVER 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO DUE TO THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA.

PALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER
NOTED IN NOVEMBER...THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.9N 79.3W 120 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.4N 78.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 77.0W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 76.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 22.0N 76.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 22.5N 75.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 76.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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#30 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:03 am

FKNT22 KNHC 081456
TCANT2
HURRICANE PALOMA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1500 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20081108/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: PALOMA
NR: 013
PSN: N1954 W07918
MOV: ENE 08KT
C: 0943HPA
MAX WIND: 120KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 082100 N2014 W07834
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 090300 N2033 W07753
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 105KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 090900 N2051 W07718
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 090KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 091500 N2107 W07651
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 080KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20081108/2100Z
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:47 pm

000
WTNT22 KNHC 082045
TCMAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
2100 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THIS
WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 4 PM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...ACKLINS
ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT42 KNHC 082045
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING...
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 142 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT...AND A RISING MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB. 125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP...THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOON. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH...HOWEVER...IS
LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE
COAST. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND. THIS
WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT HIGHER THAN...THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

THE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN
STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE
LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PALOMA MAY START
TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE.

EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
PALOMA.

PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN
NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.5N 78.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2008 7:00 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082359
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 7 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...SAN SALVADOR...ACKLINS ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR JUST EAST
OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA...AND ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...SOUTH OF
CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS PALOMA MOVES ACROSS CUBA. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY MORNING...AND BE
NEARING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AS PALOMA MOVES
ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES.

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...20.8 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:41 pm

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090252
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

THE LAST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORT AT 2305Z INDICATED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB...WITH AN EARLIER MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 118 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME...PALOMA
HAS MOVED INLAND AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH...AND LAND INTERACTION
WITH CUBA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA
ARE STILL INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OF 50 DBZ AND HIGHER
VALUES COMPRISING THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION
AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS STILL EXIST OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY
DECREASED TO 100 KT...MAINTAINING PALOMA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS PALOMA MOVES
ACROSS CUBA. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION OF PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED BY A BUILDING LOW- MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PALOMA WEAKENS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENED PALOMA MOVING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE KEY...OF
COURSE...IS HOW STRONG WILL THAT CIRCULATION BE AT DAYS 3-5.
ALTHOUGH THE 200 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY AND IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT...THE 300 MB WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT
AND BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE
CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

PALOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER
EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW BELOW 30,000 FT TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING
UNUSUALLY COLD 200 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -55C...WHICH WOULD ACT
TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 20.9N 77.7W 100 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 09/1200Z 21.4N 77.0W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/0000Z 21.8N 76.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 22.3N 75.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 22.6N 75.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 09, 2008 12:56 am

HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

...PALOMA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN
SALVADOR...ACKLINS ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA LATE THIS MORNING...AND BE NEARING THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...EVEN AFTER PALOMA MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

DANGEROUS STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN COAST
OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 100 AM EST POSITION...21.1 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BERG
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 09, 2008 6:57 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 091156
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

...PALOMA WEAKENING RAPIDLY...

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH PALOMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN
SALVADOR...ACKLINS ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS NEAR CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY AND BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. PALOMA IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA SHOULD DIMINISH
TODAY.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...21.3 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 09, 2008 9:33 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 091431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

...PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CUBA...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR NEAR
CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/HR...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF PALOMA SHOULD BE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY
AND BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND PALOMA IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...21.2 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT42 KNHC 091432
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING
IMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
INLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY. A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
VECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. CAMAGUEY...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER...IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OUR BEST GUESS AT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS WIND
FORECAST...INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.

PALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND
THIS HAS NECESSITATED A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2.
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM...IT
IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL
LOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS...BY WHICH TIME THERE
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE WE BELIEVE
THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO
AND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

IF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS...PALOMA COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 21.2N 77.9W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 22.7N 76.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 09, 2008 3:36 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 092035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

...PALOMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CUBA...

AT 400 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/HR...AND A
SLOW GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PALOMA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD BE NEAR
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
PALOMA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM EST POSITION...21.2 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 1 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

000
WTNT42 KNHC 092036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PALOMA SINCE ABOUT 10Z THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA DOES SHOW SOME MODEST BUT
DECREASING RAINFALL IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN EDUCATED GUESS FOR THIS OVERLAND
CYCLONE...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
ANALYSES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT PALOMA HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP
CONVECTION AND OVER LAND ALL DAY IT SEEMS CERTAIN THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS SPUN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLY TODAY.
AVAILABLE CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVING STATIONS AND CONTINUITY SUGGEST
THAT PALOMA HAS WEAKENED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

PALOMA HAS NEARLY COME TO A HALT THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL MOTION
OF ABOUT 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS THUS
CLOSEST TO BAM SHALLOW...AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STAYING OVER LAND FOR
ALMOST A DAY...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY LEADING TO
PALOMA'S IMMINENT DEMISE. UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER IS RE-INITIATED SOON...PALOMA MAY BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 21.2N 78.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
24HR VT 10/1800Z 22.2N 78.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 11/0600Z 22.7N 78.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/1800Z 23.0N 78.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories (The Last Advisory)

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 09, 2008 9:40 pm

WTNT32 KNHC 100237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

...PALOMA DISSIPATING INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...
...FINAL ADVISORY BEING ISSUED...

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 70 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA SHOULD EMERGE OFF
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...22.0 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


WTNT42 KNHC 100237
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

PALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION
...ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WELL TO THE
EAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
CONVECTION...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE
GENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MEANDERING OVER LAND
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE
RAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 22.0N 78.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
12HR VT 10/1200Z 22.2N 78.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/0000Z 22.7N 78.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 11/1200Z 23.0N 78.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 78.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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