ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

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ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#1 Postby gatorcane » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:03 pm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 052101
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN....

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE NICARAGUA BORDER TO LIMON.

AT 4 PM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM EST POSITION...14.0 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:03 pm

000
WTNT23 KNHC 052100
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
2100 UTC WED NOV 05 2008

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE NICARAGUA BORDER TO LIMON.

AT 4 PM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 81.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 81.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 82.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.8N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 82.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 81.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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Re: TD 17 Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:04 pm

000
WTNT43 KNHC 052102
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
FOUND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT 1000 FT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
1004 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A BANDED
APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND NOAA BUOY 42057.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL
AND HWRF TURN THE DEPRESSION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING
CUBA. IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN A LARGE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORMING NEAR
THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS THOSE MODELS FOR THE
TIME BEING. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
ABRUPT WEAKENING.

A TWELVE-HOUR MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4. A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFDL/HWRF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS. LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING...E.G. MITCH OR WILMA...AND THE MODELS CAN
BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. WE'RE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.0N 81.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 14.3N 82.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 14.8N 82.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 15.5N 82.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 83.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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Re: TD 17 Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2008 6:52 pm

WTNT32 KNHC 052349
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING...COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES...175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...6
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOAA BUOY 42057 WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 38
MPH...61 KM/HR. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...14.2 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
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Re: TD 17 Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2008 9:51 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060239
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...14.3 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

000
WTNT22 KNHC 060239
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
0300 UTC THU NOV 06 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 82.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 83.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.3N 83.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 85SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 82.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

000
WTNT42 KNHC 060257
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0000 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. ANALYSIS OF
AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2334 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE
HIGHEST WINDS OUTSIDE OF RAIN NEAR THE CENTER WERE AROUND 25
KT...REASONABLY SUGGESTING THAT WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT IN THE
CONVECTION. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 42057 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 29 KT AT 2200 AND 2300 UTC...AND A GUST OF
33 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT AND MAY FIND THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO ITS EAST. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS...BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER
36 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE
GFDL AND HWRF BOTH MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS...AND FORECAST AN INTENSITY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72
HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRENGTHENING
BEYOND THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD...AND
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE IS ABLE TO ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR THAN IS FORECAST HERE. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AS THE CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THOSE
TIME PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.3N 82.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 14.8N 82.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 15.6N 82.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 16.4N 83.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 17.3N 83.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 79.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 23.5N 74.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:59 am

TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
46 KT ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1000 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH
35-KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.

UP TO 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. THE HWRF FORECASTS A
PEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
FORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL. AFTER 72 HR...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
SHEAR APART VERTICALLY. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6. PALOMA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS
LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT REACHES 18N IN ABOUT 48 HR. THIS FLOW SHOULD
CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS. FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMD
FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...
WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS
SHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...
SHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS. SINCE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...
THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

IF THE CURRENT MOTION AND STRUCTURE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IF THE
STORM MAKES A LEFT TURN OR GROWS IN SIZE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.1N 82.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 15.8N 82.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 16.6N 82.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 17.5N 83.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.5N 82.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 81.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 65 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: Paloma- Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:52 am

WTNT32 KNHC 061146
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...PALOMA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES...115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...15.3 N...82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2008 11:23 am

WTNT42 KNHC 061435
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER. BANDING
FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1800Z TO PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE.

WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND PERHAPS A DEVELOPING INNER
CORE STRUCTURE SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF PALOMA IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND THE SHIPS INDEX SUGGESTS THAT
THE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS 3-4 TIMES THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE STRONG IN 60-120 HOUR TIME PERIODS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD THEN CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY
THAT PALOMA WOULD GET STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN OFFICIAL
FORECAST TIMES AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF STILL
FORECAST THE STORM TO BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BASED ON THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW... IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES IT WAY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST EARLY
ON. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
PALOMA ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A POWERFUL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS A VERTICALLY-
COHERENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...PALOMA SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IN A SPEEDY FASHION...SIMILAR TO THE
SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL RIP PALOMA APART...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN
THE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS SHOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE THE FORECAST REASONING THAT
PALOMA WILL REMAIN A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED
AFTER 72 HR WILL BE STILL BE SLOWER THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE
INDICATING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.6N 82.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 82.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.3N 82.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 20.5N 80.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 22.5N 76.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 25.0N 73.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:41 pm

WTNT32 KNHC 061739
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...INTENSIFYING PALOMA TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. THIS WATCH COULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE NEAR LATITUDE 15.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST
OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT
235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST LATE ON FRIDAY OR ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...90 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 100 PM EST POSITION...15.9 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:36 pm

884
WTNT32 KNHC 062035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...PALOMA STILL STRENGTHENING...

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM EST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM
...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST LATE ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM EST POSITION...16.3 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH



If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT32 data were found.

450
WTNT22 KNHC 062034
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
2100 UTC THU NOV 06 2008

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM EST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 81.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 81.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 81.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.3N 81.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 80.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 81.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

539
WTNT42 KNHC 062036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB
WINDS OF 61 KT...SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT...AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS. RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE. OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL STILL
FORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7. DISTANT
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD...
TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS...INCLUDING
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF...ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA.
SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED
AND IS STRONGER...THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY
SOLUTION.

NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS
IN A FEW HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.3N 81.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.2N 81.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.3N 82.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 81.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.0N 80.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 10/1800Z 23.5N 75.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:48 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 062347
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...PALOMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM
...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. PALOMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
ORGANIZE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
71 MPH...115 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY DATA FROM THE NEARBY NOAA
BUOY IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...16.9 N...81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:45 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 070243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...PALOMA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT HEADS SLOWLY
TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY
ON FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH...
137 KM/HR...WHEN THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE WEST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...17.2 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2008 10:05 pm

Discussion came out late.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 070258
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS REPORTS FROM
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42057...INDICATE THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A HURRICANE. AT 2250Z...THE NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED
WIND OF 62 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 74 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
993 MB. ALLOWING FOR A 1 MB PER 10 KT PRESSURE REDUCTION YIELDS AN
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WHICH IS A TYPICAL CENTRAL
PRESSURE FOR A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOCATED IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB...PLUS AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN EARLIER INFRARED IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA FURTHER SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A HURRICANE.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A
WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE EARLIER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT WAS PROBABLY MORE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF
THE INNER-CORE THAN ACTUAL STORM PROPAGATION. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE
UKMET...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING A VERY SHEARED AND
VERY WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS MOVE A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST
REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY...AS WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-HWRF SOLUTION IN TAKING A STRONGER AND MORE
VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE INTACT ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 60-72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

PALOMA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT IS RARE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR MORE THAN
48 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT PREMISE
AND CALLS FOR THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO END IN 24
HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...AN EYE FEATURE...A RELATIVELY SMALL
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND A SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER 29C SSTS.
THE GFDL MODEL ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS PALOMA TO 102 KT IN 36
HOURS...WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE
FROM 5 KT TO 25 KT...SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING DAYS 2-5. AS PALOMA PASSES OVER CUBA IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...
LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WEAKENING CYCLONE...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PALOMA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT
72 HOURS AND BEYOND AFTER IT EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 17.2N 81.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 81.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.0N 80.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 20.7N 79.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0000Z 27.5N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:45 am

159
WTNT32 KNHC 070543
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...PALOMA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 265 MILES...
425 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY
ON FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES...110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 100 AM EST POSITION...17.5 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#15 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Fri Nov 07, 2008 3:56 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 070853
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...PALOMA STRENGTHENING...CONTINUING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410
KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 AM EST POSITION...17.8 N...81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:52 am

WTNT32 KNHC 071150
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...
395 KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3
INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...18.1 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:35 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 071432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND
GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...390
KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...18.3 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF
NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. BY SUNDAY...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO SUCH
A HIGH DEGREE THAT PALOMA MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
ON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SINCE THE BAROCLINIC
INFLUENCES SEEM LIMITED...REMNANT LOW SEEMS LIKE THE MORE ACCURATE
TERM. THE CANADIAN TERM POST-TROPICAL MAY ALSO FIT THIS SITUATION.

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PALOMA HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING 005/6. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE EARLY PART OF THE NHC FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST PALOMA LEAVES THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE STORM FALLS
APART. A POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
AND HIGH SHEAR CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE
AFTER A CUBAN LANDFALL...CAUSING PALOMA TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.
THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILTY IN THE MOST RECENT
GFS AND HWRF MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.3N 81.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 20.8N 79.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 21.6N 78.3W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 72.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:00 pm

HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...PALOMA INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...HEADING TOWARD GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND
GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...WEST
OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE
COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT OR
ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 974 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 100 PM EST POSITION...18.4 N...81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2008 3:50 pm

WTNT42 KNHC 072049
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

AS IT HAS DONE SINCE THE FIRST ADVISORY...PALOMA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DOING SO AT A QUICKER PACE.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE FOUND PEAK 10000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 106 KT...SFMR WINDS
OF 88 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 90 KT...AND HIGHER WINDS WILL SURELY BE FOUND IN SHORT
ORDER. BARRING AN EYEWALL CYCLE...PALOMA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
UNTIL THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...
STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR IS FORECAST UP
UNTIL A LANDFALL IN CUBA. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM
QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/5...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. TRACK MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO PALOMA IN THE
LONGER-TERM. HOWEVER...I'M STARTING TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE
SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR APART NORTH
OF CUBA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING LEFT BEHIND AND MOVING
SLOWLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...GFS...AND HWRF...THE FASTER
MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE NOW SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND ACTUALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER
MOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE
ADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF
PALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 18.7N 81.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 80.9W 100 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 21.1N 78.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 21.8N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1800Z 22.7N 76.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 23.5N 75.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 12/1800Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:42 pm

WTNT32 KNHC 072341
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY APPROACHES GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
50 KM...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 275
MILES...440 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
TONIGHT...BE NEAR CAYMAN BRAC SATURDAY MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING
THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...97 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AMATEUR/HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON
GRAND CAYMAN.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...18.9 N...81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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