WPAC: Invest 94W - Discussion (JTWC: FAIR PAGASA: TD Rolly)

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wyq614
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WPAC: Invest 94W - Discussion (JTWC: FAIR PAGASA: TD Rolly)

#1 Postby wyq614 » Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:02 pm

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N 129.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MUCH LIKE 24W WHICH
DEVELOPED YESTERDAY, THE STORM IS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE LIMITING
FACTOR AT THIS POINT FOR DEVELOPMENT IS INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
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