## ATL Invest 95L: Computer Models

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### Re: ATLANTIC: 95L

Should be shear-bait like Paloma.

It's interesting to see these late features pop up in places where they would have been real trouble just 2 months ago.

It's interesting to see these late features pop up in places where they would have been real trouble just 2 months ago.

Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
**Posts:**46086**Age:**31**Joined:**Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm**Location:**Key West, FL-
**Contact:**

**825**

WHXX01 KWBC 131409

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1409 UTC THU NOV 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20081113 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

081113 1200 081114 0000 081114 1200 081115 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.6N 62.3W 21.3N 65.1W 22.1N 68.3W 23.4N 71.5W

BAMD 20.6N 62.3W 20.9N 64.2W 21.0N 66.4W 21.2N 68.7W

BAMM 20.6N 62.3W 21.0N 64.9W 21.2N 67.9W 21.8N 71.1W

LBAR 20.6N 62.3W 21.2N 63.9W 21.8N 66.1W 22.6N 68.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

081115 1200 081116 1200 081117 1200 081118 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 25.3N 73.9W 32.5N 72.0W 40.0N 60.5W 45.5N 56.2W

BAMD 21.8N 71.1W 25.3N 73.0W 30.6N 60.9W 26.0N 53.2W

BAMM 23.0N 73.9W 29.4N 72.5W 38.2N 58.7W 42.0N 54.7W

LBAR 23.7N 71.2W 28.4N 70.9W 30.4N 61.0W 27.0N 55.4W

SHIP 37KTS 36KTS 33KTS 34KTS

DSHP 37KTS 36KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 60.5W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 58.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

NNNN

WHXX01 KWBC 131409

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1409 UTC THU NOV 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20081113 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

081113 1200 081114 0000 081114 1200 081115 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.6N 62.3W 21.3N 65.1W 22.1N 68.3W 23.4N 71.5W

BAMD 20.6N 62.3W 20.9N 64.2W 21.0N 66.4W 21.2N 68.7W

BAMM 20.6N 62.3W 21.0N 64.9W 21.2N 67.9W 21.8N 71.1W

LBAR 20.6N 62.3W 21.2N 63.9W 21.8N 66.1W 22.6N 68.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

081115 1200 081116 1200 081117 1200 081118 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 25.3N 73.9W 32.5N 72.0W 40.0N 60.5W 45.5N 56.2W

BAMD 21.8N 71.1W 25.3N 73.0W 30.6N 60.9W 26.0N 53.2W

BAMM 23.0N 73.9W 29.4N 72.5W 38.2N 58.7W 42.0N 54.7W

LBAR 23.7N 71.2W 28.4N 70.9W 30.4N 61.0W 27.0N 55.4W

SHIP 37KTS 36KTS 33KTS 34KTS

DSHP 37KTS 36KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 60.5W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 58.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

NNNN

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- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
**Posts:**20623**Age:**40**Joined:**Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm**Location:**Boca Raton, FL

### Re: ATLANTIC: 95L

Sanibel wrote:Should be shear-bait like Paloma.

It's interesting to see these late features pop up in places where they would have been real trouble just 2 months ago.

GFS vertical shear forecast is not looking so bad in this part of the Atlantic until the next big trough arrives this weekend. I'm guessing that is why it made it to invest status although I give it a low probability of ever developing. Even if it does its not coming close to the U.S and is a likely fish candidate.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

For example here is 72 hours from now prior to trough arrival:

120 hours after trough passes:

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- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
**Posts:**20623**Age:**40**Joined:**Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm**Location:**Boca Raton, FL

### Re: ATL Invest 95L: Computer Models

The 12Z HWRF brings it into the Central Bahamas as a weak system before recurving, farther west than the BAMS and LGEM

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- cycloneye
- Storm2k Moderator
**Posts:**113775**Age:**62**Joined:**Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am**Location:**San Juan, Puerto Rico

### Re: ATL Invest 95L: Computer Models

WHXX01 KWBC 131757

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1757 UTC THU NOV 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20081113 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

081113 1800 081114 0600 081114 1800 081115 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.1N 63.2W 21.7N 66.3W 22.6N 69.8W 23.9N 73.0W

BAMD 21.1N 63.2W 21.1N 65.4W 21.0N 67.9W 21.1N 70.6W

BAMM 21.1N 63.2W 21.2N 66.1W 21.3N 69.5W 22.0N 73.0W

LBAR 21.1N 63.2W 21.3N 65.1W 21.7N 67.7W 22.2N 70.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

081115 1800 081116 1800 081117 1800 081118 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.2N 75.1W 34.0N 70.4W 39.8N 58.1W 45.6N 54.3W

BAMD 21.9N 73.0W 26.6N 72.1W 31.0N 60.0W 27.4N 49.5W

BAMM 23.8N 75.4W 31.2N 70.8W 37.1N 55.6W 37.4N 50.9W

LBAR 23.9N 73.2W 28.8N 71.3W 28.6N 61.4W 28.3N 56.9W

SHIP 36KTS 36KTS 31KTS 26KTS

DSHP 36KTS 36KTS 31KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 61.4W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 59.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 131757

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1757 UTC THU NOV 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20081113 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

081113 1800 081114 0600 081114 1800 081115 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.1N 63.2W 21.7N 66.3W 22.6N 69.8W 23.9N 73.0W

BAMD 21.1N 63.2W 21.1N 65.4W 21.0N 67.9W 21.1N 70.6W

BAMM 21.1N 63.2W 21.2N 66.1W 21.3N 69.5W 22.0N 73.0W

LBAR 21.1N 63.2W 21.3N 65.1W 21.7N 67.7W 22.2N 70.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

081115 1800 081116 1800 081117 1800 081118 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.2N 75.1W 34.0N 70.4W 39.8N 58.1W 45.6N 54.3W

BAMD 21.9N 73.0W 26.6N 72.1W 31.0N 60.0W 27.4N 49.5W

BAMM 23.8N 75.4W 31.2N 70.8W 37.1N 55.6W 37.4N 50.9W

LBAR 23.9N 73.2W 28.8N 71.3W 28.6N 61.4W 28.3N 56.9W

SHIP 36KTS 36KTS 31KTS 26KTS

DSHP 36KTS 36KTS 31KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 61.4W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 59.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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### Re: ATL Invest 95L: Computer Models

Woah. Look at that XTRP model going for Florida

Its a joke people

Its a joke people

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- HurricaneBelle
- S2K Supporter
**Posts:**628**Joined:**Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm**Location:**Clearwater, FL

### Re:

gatorcane wrote:12Z CMC sends a weak system into Haiti, will Haiti ever get a break?

Well, they were spared Paloma.

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- cycloneye
- Storm2k Moderator
**Posts:**113775**Age:**62**Joined:**Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am**Location:**San Juan, Puerto Rico

### Re: ATL Invest 95L: Computer Models

Remember if it hits the Bahamas that is not a fish

Or Bermuda,if it develops at all. I am going to give it a 0.5% chance to develop,less than 57

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- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
**Posts:**18058**Age:**61**Joined:**Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm**Location:**Houston, TX (southwest)

### Re: ATL Invest 95L: Computer Models

cycloneye wrote:Remember if it hits the Bahamas that is not a fish

Or Bermuda,if it develops at all. I am going to give it a 0.5% chance to develop,less than 57

I was being generous.

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