SIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (EX-BERNARD) - Discussion

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SIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (EX-BERNARD) - Discussion

#1 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 16, 2008 8:13 am

Image

FQIO26 FIMP 161200
1:31:08:01:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, SUNDAY 16 NOVEMBER 2008 AT 1200 UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : WARNING NIL.


PART 2 : GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 16 NOVEMBER 2008 - 1200 UTC.

EQUATORIAL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05S 64E, 04S 73E INTO LOW 1000HPA NEAR
07S 78E
CONTINUES ALONG 08S 78E, 05S 84E, 04S 88E INTO WAVE NEAR
06S 88E CONTINUES ALONG 07S 91E, 03S 97E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 13S 62E, 15S 59E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 13S 67E, 07S 70E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 23S 58E, 24S 63E INTO WAVE NEAR 26S 63E CONTINUES
ALONG 29S 67E.

REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 26S 73E, 30S 78E, 33S 86E.

HIGH 1023HPA NEAR 38S 67E.

HIGH 1024HPA NEAR 37S 111E.


PART 3 : AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO MONDAY 17 NOVEMBER 2008 AT 1200
UTC.

EAST 8/1: MAINLY EASTERLY 10-15. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD.


WEST 8/1: NORTH-EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 10-15. SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/2: MAINLY EASTERLY 15-20. SEA MODERATE TO ROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD EXCEPT IN SHOWERS.


8/3: LOCALLY SOUTHERLY 10 IN EXTREME NORTH; EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY TO
SOUTH-EASTERLY 10-15 ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY IN EAST. SEA MODERATE
IN WEST, ROUGH IN EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-EAST.
VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/4: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 15-20. LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA
MODERATE TO ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


8/5: MAINLY SOUTHERLY 10 IN SOUTH TURNING TO WESTERLY 15 IN NORTH.
LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN THUNDERY SHOWERS. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-EAST. VISIBILITY POOR IN
THUNDERY SHOWERS.


SOUTH-WEST 8/6: CLOCKWISE 15-20 AROUND LOW NEAR 1004HPA NEAR 07S
78E. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35.
SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VISIBILITY POOR.




REMAINDER 8/6: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 15-20 IN EXTREME SOUTH. MAINLY
WESTERLY 15-20 ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35. SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY
POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.
Last edited by Chacor on Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 16, 2008 12:37 pm

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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 16, 2008 3:42 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 79.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 77.7E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AN ELONAGED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A 161423Z SSMIS PASS. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTER, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THE
LLCC IS ELONGATED AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#4 Postby wyq614 » Sun Nov 16, 2008 4:25 pm

I've once started a 99S thread, but it is likely removed..
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Re: SWIO: INVEST 99S — Discussion

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 18, 2008 6:37 pm

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18/2030 UTC 9.7S 78.0E T1.5/1.5 99S -- Southwest Indian
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 18, 2008 10:56 pm

19/0230 UTC 9.8S 78.0E T2.0/2.0 99S -- Southwest Indian

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Re: SWIO: INVEST 99S — Discussion

#7 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 1:56 am

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#8 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 19, 2008 2:33 am

WTIO30 FMEE 190642

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2008/11/19 AT 0600 UTC :
9.4S / 78.4E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONNARY 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RAYON OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMV) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/19 18 UTC: 09.8S/81.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/11/20 06 UTC: 10.0S/84.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/11/20 18 UTC: 10.0S/87.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/11/21 06 UTC: 09.5S/90.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/11/21 18 UTC: 09.0S/92.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/11/22 06 UTC: 08.0S/93.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ORAGNIZED OVER LAST NIGHT AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND
PATTERN.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ; GOOD OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL FEEDING, WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND GOOD HUMIDITY FEEDING.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS, BUT HAS
STARTED AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE
MODELS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARDS WELL ESTABLISHED
WESTERLIES WINDS. THE SY
STEM SHOULD THEN EXIT OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEYOND RANGE 48.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

ERRATUM: RMW = 50 KM
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:18 am

Image

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 77.8E TO 11.4S 87.4E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
190800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2S
78.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 78.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 78.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
VERY SMALL, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WEST
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 190247Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO
SUPPORTS A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT WEAK DEEP CONV-
ECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE, MAXIMUM SUST-
AINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 200830Z.//
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#10 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:57 am

WTIO30 FMEE 191226

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2008/11/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 79.6E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/20 00 UTC: 09.8S/82.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/11/20 12 UTC: 09.9S/85.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/11/21 00 UTC: 09.5S/88.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 08.9S/90.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: 08.4S/92.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/11/22 12 UTC: 07.5S/93.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ORAGNIZED OVER LAST NIGHT AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND
PATTERN.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS; SUFFICIENT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL FEEDING, WEAK
WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD HUMIDITY FEEDING. BEYOND,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARDS AND HAS SLIGHTLY SPED UP OVER THE LAST HOURS.
NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARDS WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES WINDS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN LEAVE OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEYOND RANGE 48.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 11:08 am

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 12:19 pm

19/1430 UTC 9.5S 79.3E T2.0/2.0 99S -- Southwest Indian
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 1:50 pm

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Looks pretty nice.
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Re: SWIO: Tropical Disturbance 3 (99S) — Discussion TCFA

#14 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 19, 2008 2:12 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 191805

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2008/11/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 80.9E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: SO: NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/20 06 UTC: 10.0S/83.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/11/20 18 UTC: 09.5S/87.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/11/21 06 UTC: 08.9S/89.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/11/21 18 UTC: 08.2S/91.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/11/22 06 UTC: 07.6S/93.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/11/22 18 UTC: 07.0S/95.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
A SMALL AND COMPACT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING, WRAPING ABOVE THE
LLCC.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS : SUFFICIENT OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT, FAIR LOW LEVEL FEEDING, POOR VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT RATHER WEAK
OUTFLOW (NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITH FEW CIRRUS) IN HIGH LEVEL.
IT COULD REACH TEMPOR
ARILLY THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.

BEYOND, NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY.

THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING EASTWARDS.
NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARDS WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES WINDS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN PARRALEL ON THE FRIDY 21TH.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 4:21 pm

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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190821Z NOV 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS32 PGTW 192100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 9.7S 79.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 79.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.6S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.7S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 9.9S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 80.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 03S
HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REACHING 2.5/2.5 (PGTW AND FMEE)
AND 2.0/2.0 (KNES). THE TRACK FOR TC 03B HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY
INFLUENCED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ITERACTION WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW TO THE
NORTH. POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE SST'S WILL STIFFLE STRONG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 190821Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 190830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 4:24 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Wednesday the 19th of November 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Cyclone advices are current for TC Anika, please refer to latest advice.

Full details available from Bureau of Meteorology
Ph 1300 659 210 or visit http://www.bom.gov.au

A second low near 10S 80E is expected to move eastwards over the next few days.
Model guidance suggests it could develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
to 48 hours and may move east of 90E during Friday.

Potential for a second tropical cyclone [excluding TC Anika] between 90-110 E:
Thursday : Low
Friday : Moderate
Saturday: Moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:19 pm

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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 7:58 pm

ZCZC 867
WTIO20 FMEE 191805
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/11/2008
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 19/11/2008 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 80.9E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
AT
1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO
200
NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
NEAR
THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND VOLACCLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/11/20 AT 06 UTC:
10.0S / 83.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2008/11/20 AT 18 UTC:
9.5S / 87.2E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING EASTWARDS, WHILE INTENSIFYING VERY SLOWLY.
IT
SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN PARALLEL ON THE FRIDAY 21TH.
THE ACTIVE CLOUD CLUSTER IS SMALL, COMPACT, AND IS WRAPING ABOVE THE
LOW
LEVEL CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MODERATLY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IT COULD REACH, VERY TEMPORARILLY, THE
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS
(INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY WINDS) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY.=
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:04 pm

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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:39 pm

TPXS10 PGTW 200014

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 19/2330Z

C. 9.5S

D. 81.7E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAP OF .70 ON LOG 10
YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES AND MET AN UNREP 2.5.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


AMES
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