SIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (EX-BERNARD) - Discussion

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HURAKAN
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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:09 pm

ZCZC 794
WTIO30 FMEE 200023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 0000 UTC :
9.8S / 82.7E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/20 12 UTC: 09.9S/84.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/11/21 00 UTC: 09.4S/87.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 08.6S/90.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: 07.9S/92.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/11/22 12 UTC: 07.6S/94.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/11/23 00 UTC: 07.4S/95.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THE SYSTEM AS A THE STRUCTURE OF A SMALL CDO. THE LLCC LOCATION AS
BEEN
ESTIMATED (WHITHOUT CERTAINTY) AT THE CENTER OF THIS CDO.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS : SUFFICIENT OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND LOW LEVEL FEEDING, POOR VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT RATHER
WEAK
OUTFLOW (NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITH FEW CIRRUS) IN HIGH
LEVEL.
IT COULD REACH TEMPORAR
ILLY THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
BEYOND, NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS
INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS.
NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER
THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARDS WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES
WINDS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN PARRALEL ON THE FRIDY 21TH.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.=
NNNN
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#22 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 20, 2008 1:28 am

WTIO30 FMEE 200620

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 84.2E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/20 18 UTC: 09.7S/87.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/11/21 06 UTC: 08.7S/89.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/11/21 18 UTC: 08.1S/92.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/11/22 06 UTC: 07.5S/94.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/11/22 18 UTC: 07.4S/95.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/11/23 06 UTC: 07.4S/96.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING EASTWARDS. IT SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN
MERIDIAN ON THE FRIDAY 21TH.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE RAPID
SYSTEM OWN SPEED AND REACHING PROBABLY 35KT IN THIS AREA.
UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONG BUT SYSTEM QUICK
EASTWARDS MOVE ALLOWS IT TO KEEP ON INVOLVING WITHIN RATHER FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS AND IT COULD REACH, VERY TEMPORARILLY
, THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MAINLY INTENSIFYING
NORTHERLY WINDS) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS.
CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN THANKS TO LAST AVAILABLE
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 3 (03S) — Discussion

#23 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 20, 2008 8:09 am

WTIO30 FMEE 201225 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERNARD)

2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 87.1E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST
)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/21 00 UTC: 09.8S/89.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 08.7S/92.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: 08.1S/94.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/11/22 12 UTC: 07.9S/97.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
SYSTEM HAS REACHED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AND HAS BEEN NAMED
"BERNARD".
IT IS ACCELERATING EASTWARDS AND SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN MERIDIAN
WITHIN NEXT NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE RAPID
SYSTEM OWN SPEED.
UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONG BUT SYSTEM QUICK
EASTWARDS MOVE ALLOWS IT TO KEEP ON INVOLVING WITHIN RATHER FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MAINLY INTENSIFYING
NORTHERLY WINDS) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS.
LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DO NOT ALLOW LOCATING THE LLCC WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. IT SEEMS REMAINING DEPHASED WESTWARD ON THE OBVIOUS UPPER
LEVEL ONE.
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:08 am

Image

Image

Hello Bernard, bye Bernard.
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#25 Postby wyq614 » Thu Nov 20, 2008 1:42 pm

Downgraded to TD, maybe Meteo France has done the Australians a favor so that it is no longer necessary for them to name the storm and issue regular warnings about it.
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Re: SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm BERNARD — Discussion

#26 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:23 pm

Where did Bernard (the name) come from? I looked at the name lists on the NHC site and didn't see it listed anywhere.
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Re: SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm BERNARD — Discussion

#27 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:52 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Where did Bernard (the name) come from? I looked at the name lists on the NHC site and didn't see it listed anywhere.


The list is used for the region of the Indian Ocean covered by Meteo France. They have a brand new list with 26 names every year.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:56 pm

Image

Very little is left.
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Re: SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm BERNARD — Discussion

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 20, 2008 6:02 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Where did Bernard (the name) come from? I looked at the name lists on the NHC site and didn't see it listed anywhere.


List of names for the season 08-09: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... pteme.html

ASMA 19 / 10 / 2008 à 18:00 UTC
BERNARD 20 / 11 / 2008 à 12:00 UTC
CINDA
DONGO
ERIC
FANELE
GAEL
HINA
IZILDA
JADE
KAGO
LISEBO
MAGOMA
NEWA
OWAMI
PULANE
QOLI
RUTE
SAMA
TSHOLO
UZALE
VIMBAI
WADA
XYLO
YAMBA
ZITA

The NHC needs to update the name list to include the 08-09 season. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml#sio
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 20, 2008 6:09 pm

ZCZC 532
WTIO30 FMEE 201823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BERNARD)
2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 89.2E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 21 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 PLUS /W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/21 06 UTC: 09.6S/92.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/11/21 18 UTC: 09.0S/94.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2008/11/22 06 UTC: 08.2S/96.4E, MAX WIND=010KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DISORGANIZED AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED.
THIS SPECTACULAR WEAKENING LEADS TO BREAK DVORAK RULES.
CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY. FIX HAS
BEEN
DONE WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI 1332Z), THAT EVEN SHOWS A VERY
POORLY
ORGANIZED LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (PARTICULARLY INCREASING
NORTHERLY
WINDSHEAR) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM STILL TRACKS VERY QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD CROSS THE 90E IN THE NEXT HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A
CONSENSUS.=
NNNN
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#31 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 20, 2008 8:22 pm

Gone.

WTIO30 FMEE 210037

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BERNARD)

2.A POSITION 2008/11/21 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 91.5E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 10.3S/94.5E DISSIPATED.
24H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DISORGANIZED AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED.
THIS SPECTACULAR WEAKENING LEADS TO BREAK DVORAK RULES.
CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY. EVEN MICROWAVE
IMAGERIES (AQUA 1945Z, TRMM 2116Z) DO NOT SHOW ANY ORGANIZED CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (PARTICULARLY INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDSHEAR) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY.
THE SYSTEM STILL TRACKS VERY QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARINIG ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION.
NO MORE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE DARWIN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS IDD10210.
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:29 pm

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