SIO: Ex Tropical Cyclone Anika (02S)

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Chacor
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#41 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 20, 2008 8:28 am

AXAU01 APRF 201305
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 20/11/2008
Name: Anika
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 103.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [123 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.5/W1.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0000: 16.1S 105.9E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 996
+24: 21/1200: 17.0S 108.1E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+36: 22/0000: 17.5S 110.3E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 1002
+48: 22/1200: 17.5S 112.6E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1004
+60: 23/0000: 17.1S 114.3E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 1004
+72: 23/1200: 16.9S 116.0E: 250 [465]: 025 [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
Anika is now weakening under increasing N/NW shear after peaking earlier in the
day. Latest microwave imagery [11UTC SSMIS] now shows a clearly exposed LLCC
north of the convection.

Dvorak: DT=FT=2.5 based on shear pattern -0.5degree separation from deep
convection. CI held at 3.5 consistent with earlier ADT estimates.

Increasing shear associated with the influence of an upper level trough to the
south should continue the weakening process as Anika moves into cooler SSTs
south of 15S.

Forecast track is for continuing SE to ESE motion based on consensus of major
models excluding WBAR and TXLAPS.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:58 pm

Image

Anika and Bernard got together and decided to disappear in the blink of an eye.
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#43 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 20, 2008 8:23 pm

Gone.

AXAU01 APRF 210031
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0031 UTC 21/11/2008
Name: Ex Tropical Cyclone Anika
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 106.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [108 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1200: 16.6S 108.6E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 22/0000: 17.1S 111.1E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 1002
+36: 22/1200: 17.3S 113.7E: 130 [245]: 025 [045]: 1004
+48: 23/0000: 17.3S 115.8E: 165 [305]: 025 [045]: 1004
+60: 23/1200: 17.0S 117.4E: 210 [395]: 020 [035]: 1006
+72: 24/0000: 16.7S 119.0E: 260 [480]: 020 [035]: 1006
REMARKS:
Anika has now weakened below tropical cyclone intensity under moderate to strong
N/NW shear and cooler SSTs. Latest imagery shows a clearly exposed LLCC
northwest of the convection.

Dvorak: FT=2.0 based on MET. CI of 2.5.

The LLCC is expected to track to the east southeast over the next 24 to 48
hours.
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
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HURAKAN
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:28 pm

Image
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