ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#41 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:16 am

jinftl wrote:Ever notice how the NHC very rarely (if ever) uses language such as 'not a chance' or 'guaranteed'...they speak in terms of probability....even a weak td has the potential of becoming a cat 5....but the probability may be well under 1%....but there is still some very very limited chance...


There's a difference between what I would tell a client and what I would say in this discussion here. We're telling our clients (none of whom would be impacted) that there is only a slight chance of development but that the threat would only be to Nicaragua and Costa Rica. I think those that see this developing are being a bit "hopeful". Probably the same reason I don't see it developing, as we've disbanded our hurricane team for the holiday week. I wold have been perfectly comfortable with the season ending after Ike. And I hope we don't see another development until late next August.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#42 Postby jconsor » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:21 am

wxman57 wrote:
Those stations all had wind of 5 kts or less. The Panama station is reporting 2 mph. David is on the other side of the country from the Caribbean, and its winds are also light and variable. You have to be careful interpreting such light winds as a sign of a circulation, as they're most likely the result of local effects. Panama, for example is a natural wind funnel. Wind comes in the north side and travels SSE toward the exit, thus the light NNW wind reported there.

Is see no evidence of any circulation, even a broad one. My maps show all the obs, though they're not always plotted on a single map.


Clearly the winds are higher on the north side because of the pressure gradient to the north. Point well taken about the local effects of Panama not being representative of the larger scale flow.

However, while the winds of the land stations I mentioned were all less than 10 kt, there are ship reports along the coast of Panama of somewhat higher winds.

The ship "Coral Princess" reported NNW winds at 17 kt at 3z and 5z:
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=ZCDF4

The ship "Rotterdam" reported NNW winds at 11 kt at 3z:
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ?call=PDGS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#43 Postby jinftl » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:23 am

Sure there is a difference between the analytical view on this board vs. that of a general forecast to the public or customers...but I was speaking in terms of communication on the board...not communication in terms of a forecast to the public (of which I have 'no chance' of being able to do.

That said...the NHC would go with 'development unlikely' before 'no chance'...even to the public. A matter of semantics I know.


wxman57 wrote:
jinftl wrote:Ever notice how the NHC very rarely (if ever) uses language such as 'not a chance' or 'guaranteed'...they speak in terms of probability....even a weak td has the potential of becoming a cat 5....but the probability may be well under 1%....but there is still some very very limited chance...


There's a difference between what I would tell a client and what I would say in this discussion here. We're telling our clients (none of whom would be impacted) that there is only a slight chance of development but that the threat would only be to Nicaragua and Costa Rica. I think those that see this developing are being a bit "hopeful". Probably the same reason I don't see it developing, as we've disbanded our hurricane team for the holiday week. I wold have been perfectly comfortable with the season ending after Ike. And I hope we don't see another development until late next August.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#44 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:25 am

Shear has increased again. edit: I was working with a cached image. A small small small area of lower shear is present.

Image

Mid level shear is low, so perhaps something small could develop? To my untrained eye development looks to be near impossible.

Mid-Level Shear
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#45 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:29 am

674
NOUS42 KNHC 241500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST MON 24 NOVEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z NOVEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-177

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
WVW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#46 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:29 am

jconsor wrote:
Clearly the winds are higher on the north side because of the pressure gradient to the north. Point well taken about the local effects of Panama not being representative of the larger scale flow.

However, while the winds of the land stations I mentioned were all less than 10 kt, there are ship reports along the coast of Panama of somewhat higher winds.

The ship "Coral Princess" reported NNW winds at 17 kt at 3z and 5z:
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=ZCDF4

The ship "Rotterdam" reported NNW winds at 11 kt at 3z:
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ?call=PDGS


Those ships are in the Gulf of Panama, and could well reflect local effects (wind flowing down the Canal and out into the East Pac from NNW-SSE). Besides, if that NNW wind would be indicative of an LLC, then the center is either over Panama or south of Panama, not near 10N/80W. Still looks like nothing to me.

Too much time wasted on this non-event on my week off. Heading out to do something fun.
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#47 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:30 am

:uarrow:

Indeed the shear is a bit high now but take a look at the vertical shear forecast from the 06Z GFS run. It shows marginally favorable conditions prevailing in the SW Caribbean for several days which could allow something to get going:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

For example, look at 120 hours from now. That's a large anticyclone that has established itself right over the SW Carib.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#48 Postby jinftl » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:38 am

In all due respect....this wasn't/isn't an s2k creation....we do have an active invest and a 'code orange' from the NHC....having those on a system the week of Thanksgiving doesn't happen too often...i would take the discussion on this system in the here and now vs. page after page on a cold front 2 weeks away any day....esp this time of year.

wxman57 wrote:
jconsor wrote:
Clearly the winds are higher on the north side because of the pressure gradient to the north. Point well taken about the local effects of Panama not being representative of the larger scale flow.

However, while the winds of the land stations I mentioned were all less than 10 kt, there are ship reports along the coast of Panama of somewhat higher winds.

The ship "Coral Princess" reported NNW winds at 17 kt at 3z and 5z:
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=ZCDF4

The ship "Rotterdam" reported NNW winds at 11 kt at 3z:
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ?call=PDGS


Those ships are in the Gulf of Panama, and could well reflect local effects (wind flowing down the Canal and out into the East Pac from NNW-SSE). Besides, if that NNW wind would be indicative of an LLC, then the center is either over Panama or south of Panama, not near 10N/80W. Still looks like nothing to me.

Too much time wasted on this non-event on my week off. Heading out to do something fun.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#49 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:50 am

Formation sputtered like the disturbance was busted open. This is either a gear change or busting of organization.

Models could be screwy on this because it is in a limbo area near South America, EPAC just over Panama, and too far south for most normal Caribbean influences.

Almirante and Bocas Del Toro, Panama have been rained on for 3 days now and should be flooded. The Cordillera goes up to 11,000 foot Volcan Baru, which I climbed. Should be good orographic flooding.


I've seen this before where a front "compresses" tropical conditions into the southern Caribbean where they brew up and form.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#50 Postby Frank2 » Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:03 am

I'm surprised many are critizing the NHC for posting it as an invest - it's a legitimate tropical disturbance, so, best to post it as an invest than to wait until an eye appears (then they'd be critized for being asleep at the switch, er, computer)...

It might not be anything to concern us, but, it is if someone is underneath it...

Still, it appeared to peak in organization about midnight last night (probably a depression, at least on satellite) - it's not as organized ATTM...

Frank
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#51 Postby jinftl » Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:13 am

I suspect talking of a system...even a rainy depression off of panama...challenges some of the 'not supposed to' beliefs we have on tropical systems and time of year...one thing for folks to keep in mind....the NHC gives this a 20-50% chance of development in the next 48 hours...that means a 50-80% chance it won't develop.

Frank2 wrote:I'm surprised many are critizing the NHC for posting it as an invest - it's a legitimate tropical disturbance, so, best to post it as an invest than to wait until an eye appears (then they'd be critized for being asleep at the switch, er, computer)...

It might not be anything to concern us, but, it is if someone is underneath it...

Still, it appeared to peak in organization about midnight last night (probably a depression, at least on satellite) - it's not as organized ATTM...

Frank
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:19 am

Image
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#53 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:54 am

Looks awfully disturbed down there if you ask me:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#54 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:33 pm

System is in formation. Drifting WNW towards Nicaragua. Watch for another d-burst.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#55 Postby jinftl » Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:35 pm

Rainfall...and the possibility of flooding over parts of Central America could be the biggest threats 96L poses...with or without any tropical development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#56 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:43 pm

Downgraded to yellow.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241725
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#57 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:46 pm

:uarrow: If 96L maintains its convection I expect back to "Code Orange" sometime today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#58 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:48 pm

Blown_away wrote::uarrow: If 96L maintains its convection I expect back to "Code Orange" sometime today.


Not only that if 12Z and 18Z GFDL and HWRF runs are showing tropical development, I bet NHC puts it back at code orange at the next advisory. Currently the GFDL is bullish on development but the HWRF is not quite as bullish.
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#59 Postby fci » Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:55 pm

Pretty impressive looking.
Glad it is not 4-6 weeks earlier and a "normal" Fall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#60 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 24, 2008 1:07 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

If you step through the last 9 hours you can see how the shear is relaxing from south to north.
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