bvigal wrote:7:05 am TWD: "BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA"
I quite agree with you this has no chance to develop, that's a no-brainer. Though it's possible you are actually encouraging the argumentative posts with statements like that highlighted, above. Frequently you post your surface obs and insist they tell the whole story and prove your point, when 1. large areas of water contain no reports whatsoever and could contain low pressure or unexpected wind direction; 2. ship/buoy reports must be interpreted based upon who/what they are, not just graph the values, which are often misleading (cruise ships measure wind several stories above the water which can be not only significant difference in speed, but also different direction, and ship data slotted into buoy database does not contain a gust column, so frequently ships will report gusts in brief passing squalls, and they will show in the "wind speed" column); 3. one must understand non-US airports and how they make their reports - sometimes it's a guy looking outside and saying "I think it's this" and sometimes wind direction is based upon funneling through or over a mountain that rises at a 50-degree angle 1 mile from the airport - you have to understand the terrain and how it effects wind direction and speed based upon prevailing winds for that season and overall area wind speed (i.e. frequently an airport says winds one direction, and a wind instrument nearby just offshore measures the opposite)
Having been a tropical meteorologist for almost 30 years now (and following the weather for 47 years), I certainly understand the problems with observations at sea and with local terrain features. Perhaps I wasn't clear. I could find no evidence of a broad low with a circulation. Of course, pressure is always lower closer to the Equator. If that's what the NWS forecaster was referring to (an Equatorial trough), then he's right. But if there was an implication of a circulation (a low pressure center), then there never was any indication of a circulation in the SW Caribbean with 96L.
Time to start thinking about snow storms and not hurricanes. For those of you who celebrate it, Happy Thanksgiving!