ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#101 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 25, 2008 8:11 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
This is exactly what I am talking about. I can't understand why you use absolutes like this, especially in the field of meteorology. So your telling me that you know for a certainty that there will be no development in the entire Atlantic like that of epsilon or Vince? Most likely it wont, but you like to use absolutes a lot and I think your track record especially this year would be better if you were more cautious..jmo


Perhaps just to tweak certain posters? ;-) OK, so there's a 99.9% chance the season is over. How about that? And November 30th is just a date on a calendar. STS systems can form well into December (and January).
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#102 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 25, 2008 8:19 pm

141
ABNT20 KNHC 252331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#103 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:22 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BROWN

No more invest. This one's dissipating. Time for Thanksgiving, not hurricanes.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#104 Postby bvigal » Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:07 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a current surface analysis and satellite. Still nothing there - not even a broad surface low. Just scattered storms.

Image

7:05 am TWD: "BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA"
I quite agree with you this has no chance to develop, that's a no-brainer. Though it's possible you are actually encouraging the argumentative posts with statements like that highlighted, above. Frequently you post your surface obs and insist they tell the whole story and prove your point, when 1. large areas of water contain no reports whatsoever and could contain low pressure or unexpected wind direction; 2. ship/buoy reports must be interpreted based upon who/what they are, not just graph the values, which are often misleading (cruise ships measure wind several stories above the water which can be not only significant difference in speed, but also different direction, and ship data slotted into buoy database does not contain a gust column, so frequently ships will report gusts in brief passing squalls, and they will show in the "wind speed" column); 3. one must understand non-US airports and how they make their reports - sometimes it's a guy looking outside and saying "I think it's this" and sometimes wind direction is based upon funneling through or over a mountain that rises at a 50-degree angle 1 mile from the airport - you have to understand the terrain and how it effects wind direction and speed based upon prevailing winds for that season and overall area wind speed (i.e. frequently an airport says winds one direction, and a wind instrument nearby just offshore measures the opposite)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#105 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:40 am

bvigal wrote:7:05 am TWD: "BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA"
I quite agree with you this has no chance to develop, that's a no-brainer. Though it's possible you are actually encouraging the argumentative posts with statements like that highlighted, above. Frequently you post your surface obs and insist they tell the whole story and prove your point, when 1. large areas of water contain no reports whatsoever and could contain low pressure or unexpected wind direction; 2. ship/buoy reports must be interpreted based upon who/what they are, not just graph the values, which are often misleading (cruise ships measure wind several stories above the water which can be not only significant difference in speed, but also different direction, and ship data slotted into buoy database does not contain a gust column, so frequently ships will report gusts in brief passing squalls, and they will show in the "wind speed" column); 3. one must understand non-US airports and how they make their reports - sometimes it's a guy looking outside and saying "I think it's this" and sometimes wind direction is based upon funneling through or over a mountain that rises at a 50-degree angle 1 mile from the airport - you have to understand the terrain and how it effects wind direction and speed based upon prevailing winds for that season and overall area wind speed (i.e. frequently an airport says winds one direction, and a wind instrument nearby just offshore measures the opposite)


Having been a tropical meteorologist for almost 30 years now (and following the weather for 47 years), I certainly understand the problems with observations at sea and with local terrain features. Perhaps I wasn't clear. I could find no evidence of a broad low with a circulation. Of course, pressure is always lower closer to the Equator. If that's what the NWS forecaster was referring to (an Equatorial trough), then he's right. But if there was an implication of a circulation (a low pressure center), then there never was any indication of a circulation in the SW Caribbean with 96L.

Time to start thinking about snow storms and not hurricanes. For those of you who celebrate it, Happy Thanksgiving!
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#106 Postby fci » Wed Nov 26, 2008 10:59 am

Wxman; thanks for all your help this season.
Have a great Thanksgiving and those of us who have no winter look forward to seeing you next season.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#107 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Nov 26, 2008 11:02 am

Time to start thinking about snow storms and not hurricanes. For those of you who celebrate it, Happy Thanksgiving!



Arrividerci Hurricane Season 2008.

Now we can look forward to WxMan57 visiting the various winter weather threads.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#108 Postby Sanibel » Wed Nov 26, 2008 11:09 am

Shear blasted. Could refire but doesn't look like it will.
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