ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
I didnt expected this to be a invest,but here it is.
BEGIN
NHC
invest_al962008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200811232108
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2008, DB, O, 2008112318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962008
AL, 96, 2008112118, , BEST, 0, 113N, 787W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 792W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112206, , BEST, 0, 110N, 797W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112212, , BEST, 0, 109N, 801W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112218, , BEST, 0, 107N, 804W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112300, , BEST, 0, 105N, 805W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112306, , BEST, 0, 102N, 805W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 803W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112318, , BEST, 0, 99N, 801W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ,
BEGIN
NHC
invest_al962008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200811232108
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2008, DB, O, 2008112318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962008
AL, 96, 2008112118, , BEST, 0, 113N, 787W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 792W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112206, , BEST, 0, 110N, 797W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112212, , BEST, 0, 109N, 801W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112218, , BEST, 0, 107N, 804W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112300, , BEST, 0, 105N, 805W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112306, , BEST, 0, 102N, 805W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 803W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112318, , BEST, 0, 99N, 801W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Shear relaxing south to north, perhaps forecast conditions look more favorable?
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Shear relaxing south to north, perhaps forecast conditions look more favorable?
Nope, models forecast slow dissipation.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 232347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PANAMA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PANAMA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
What a way to close the very remarkable 2008 season with this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:NHC must be bored. 40-50 kts shear = not a chance
I'm puzzled, if there is that much shear there why is there still consolidated convection that has lasted for 5 DAYS? This does have a chance (see Miracle), and I would place that at 35%.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but It appears to me that the system is being sheared..
That is correct. It's not likely there would be a non-sheared system in late November or December.
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