NIO: Cyclonic Storm Nisha (TS 06B) - Discussion

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#21 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:59 am

Cyclonic Storm Nisha, at 0300 UTC:

BOB 07/2008/07 Dated: 26 November 2008

Time of issue: 1030 hours IST



Sub: Cyclone Warning for Tamilnadu coast (Orange message)



The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal intensified into a cyclonic storm, ‘NISHA’ over southwest Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 26th November 2008 near lat. 10.50 N and long. 80.00 E, close to Vedaranniyam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross Tamil Nadu coast near Vedaranniyam around noon of today.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the same period.



Gale winds speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition is high along and off these coasts.



Storm surge of about 1.0 meter above the astronomical tide is likely over coastal areas of Thiruvalur and Nagapattinam districts of Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.



Damage expected: Damage to thatched huts, breaking of tree branches causing minor damages to power and communication lines in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.



Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:46 am

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#23 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:56 am

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-11-2008





TROPICAL STORM ‘NISHA’ ADVISORY NO TWO ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 26TH NOVEMBER 2008 BASED ON 0900 UTC

CHARTS OF 26TH NOVEMBER 2008.



THE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘NISHA’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY

AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 26TH NOVEMBER 2008 NEAR LAT. 10.50 N AND LONG. 80.00 E,

CLOSE TO VEDARANNIYAM (43349).



SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES ORGANIsATION OF CONVECTION in associated with the system.

ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CURVED CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND OBSERVED

OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY BETWEEN LAT 10.00 N TO 16.50 N WEST OF

LONG 85.00 E TAMIL NADU ADJOINING SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH, KARNATAKA, PALK STRAIT, GULF OF

MANNAR, NORTH SRI LANKA. INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0

sustained maximum winds speed is estimated to be about 45KNOTS. the state of the sea is HIGH around

the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1000 hpa. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE

(CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -700 C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO

20 KnoTS. 24 HOUR SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KnoTS AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF

THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 140N. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER

THE REGION IS ABOUT 290 C.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS

TAMIL NADU COAST NEAR NAGAPATTINAM (43346) TODAY, THE 26TH NOVEMBER 2008 BETWEEN 1400 AND 1800

UTC. FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12 HRS T3.0
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#24 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 26, 2008 10:29 am

JTWC final warning remarks:

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST
OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MADE LANDFALL AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER TC 06B HAS STARTED TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DECREASE IN THE OVERALL
DEEP CONVECTION SIGNATURE WITH A SHIFT FROM THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED
ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TC 06B MADE LANDFALL.
HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 06B QUICKLY.
CURRENT TRACK IS PREDOMINANTLY INFLUENCED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE
NORTHWEST TRACK. AS TC 06B WEAKENS, LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE TRACK TO A MORE
WESTWARD PATTERN. TC 06B REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW BUT WILL
NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN TC 06B INTENSITY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMNANTS OF TC 06B WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIA, ENTER THE ARABIAN SEA AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOP AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET.//
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Re: NIO: Cyclonic Storm Nisha (TS 06B) - Discussion

#25 Postby RattleMan » Wed Nov 26, 2008 5:24 pm

BOB 07/2008/08 Dated: 26 November 2008

Time of issue: 1430 hours IST



Sub: Cyclone Warning for Tamilnadu coast (Orange message)



The Cyclone Storm, ‘NISHA’ over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 26th November 2008 near lat. 10.50 N and long. 80.00 E, close to Vedaranniyam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam today, the 26th November 2008 afternoon/evening.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the same period.



Gale winds speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition is high along and off these coasts.



Storm surge of about 1.0 meter above the astronomical tide is likely over coastal areas of Thiruvalur and Nagapattinam districts of Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.



Damage expected: Damage to thatched huts, breaking of tree branches causing minor damages to power and communication lines in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.



Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOB 07/2008/09 Dated: 26 November 2008

Time of issue: 1730 hours IST





Sub: Cyclone Warning for Tamilnadu coast (Orange message)





The cyclonic storm, ‘NISHA’ over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 26th November 2008 near lat. 10.50 N and long. 80.00 E, close to Vedaranniyam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam today, the 26th November 2008 evening/night.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the same period.



Gale winds speed reaching 65-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition is high to very high along and off these coasts.



Storm surge of about 1.0 meter above the astronomical tide is likely over coastal areas of Thiruvalur and Nagapattinam districts of Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.



Damage expected: Damage to thatched huts, breaking of tree branches causing minor damages to power and communication lines in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.



Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOB 07/2008/10 Dated: 26 November 2008

Time of issue: 2030 hours IST





Sub: Cyclone Warning for Tamilnadu coast (Orange message)





The cyclonic storm, ‘NISHA’ over southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards

and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 26th November 2008 near lat. 10.80 N and long. 80.00 E,

close to Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross

Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam by today, the 26th November 2008 night.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and

isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24

hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Kerala, south

interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the same period.



Gale winds speed reaching 65-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph are likely along and off Tamil

Nadu & Puducherry coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition is high to very high along and off

these coasts.



Storm surge of about 1.0 meter above the astronomical tide is likely over coastal areas of

Thiruvalur and Nagapattinam districts of Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.



Damage expected: Damage to thatched huts, breaking of tree branches causing minor damages to

power and communication lines in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.



Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 24 hours.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BOB 07/2008/11

Time of issue: 2200 hours IST Dated: 26 November 2008





Sub: Cyclone Warning for Tamilnadu coast (Orange message)





The cyclonic storm, ‘NISHA’ over southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lay centred at 2030 hours IST of today, the 26th November 2008 near lat. 11.00 N and long. 80.00 E, close to Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam by today, the 26th November 2008 night/early hours of 27th November 2008.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the same period.



Gale winds speed reaching 65-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition is high to very high along and off these coasts.



Storm surge of about 1.0 meter above the astronomical tide is likely over coastal areas of Thiruvalur and Nagapattinam districts of Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.



Damage expected: Damage to thatched huts, breaking of tree branches causing minor damages to power and communication lines in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.



Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 24 hours.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 26, 2008 6:04 pm

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Re: NIO: Cyclonic Storm Nisha (TS 06B) - Discussion

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 28, 2008 11:38 am

JTWC'S NISHA RELOCATION:

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Not only they relocated the present at that time, but also the past.
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Re: NIO: Cyclonic Storm Nisha (TS 06B) - Discussion

#28 Postby Crostorm » Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:21 am


Tamil Nadu cyclone death toll reaches 120


Chennai, Nov.30 (ANI): The indiscriminate rains over the last one week in Tamil Nadu have left 120 people dead in the state so far.

Relief operation is in full swing in the state’s affected districts.

A large area of Chennai is inundated in water. Areas such as Velachery, Manapakkam, Medavakkam continues to be waterlogged.

The torrential rains have destroyed standing crops in over 550,000 hectares of land. 600,000 farmers have been hit hard by the calamity, said chief minister M.Karunanidhi.

About one million people have been affected by the havoc caused by torrential rains. 2,100 relief camps have been set up across the State to help the affected, Karunanidhi added. The state government has sanctioned 100 crore for immediate relief work. 2000 rupees and ten kilos of rice are being distributed among the affected.

Rains have reportedly damaged roads across the State. A 7,700 km of area comprising State highways and National highways has been affected.

Rail services across the state have remained paralyzed. At many places, the rail track has submerged, forcing railway authorities to suspend train services.

The meteorological department in Chennai has forecast isolated heavy rain across coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry for the next 24 hours.

Cyclone Nisha has left a trail of death and destruction with like Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapatinam, and Cuddalore being the worst affected.(ANI)

..
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