AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.6N 114.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 260148Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES AN
AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF TURNING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
PROVIDE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. CURRENT IMAGERY INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS TRACKING TOWARDS
NORTHERN VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.