WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

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Chacor
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#61 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:04 am

JMA fix jumped form T3.5 at 0600z to T4.5 at 1200z. I'm thinking 70 kts. Definitely a typhoon though.

682
TCNA21 RJTD 151200
CCAA 15120 47644 DOLPHIN(0822) 30149 11304 12344 245// 90204=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

#62 Postby RattleMan » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:39 am

Latest in the JTWC BT:

27W DOLPHIN 081215 1200 14.9N 130.4E WPAC 90 956

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/W ... ckfile.txt
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#63 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:50 am

65 kts from JMA:

WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0822 DOLPHIN (0822) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 14.9N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 15.8N 129.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 171200UTC 16.6N 129.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 181200UTC 17.4N 129.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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#64 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:47 am

Image

Looking a bit less healthy. Up to 90 kts from JTWC though.
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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:56 am

Image

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#66 Postby Cookie » Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:47 pm

made it up to cat 2 typhoon
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#67 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 3:19 pm

Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle. Probably peaked at about 95 kt this morning and has dropped a bit.
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#68 Postby Cookie » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:42 pm

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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 8:20 pm

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#70 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:02 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 15.8N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 18.0N 131.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 180000UTC 19.7N 133.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 190000UTC 19.7N 134.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

#71 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 10:24 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#72 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 16, 2008 2:29 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 16.3N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 18.8N 132.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180600UTC 19.8N 134.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 190600UTC 19.6N 136.1E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#73 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 16, 2008 9:09 am

Downgraded to STS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 16.9N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 19.3N 132.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 181200UTC 19.9N 135.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 191200UTC 19.9N 137.0E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 3:27 pm

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#75 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 7:42 pm

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#76 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 16, 2008 8:02 pm

Still a SEVERE Tropical Storm.

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.5N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 160NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 20.0N 134.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190000UTC 20.0N 137.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#77 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 9:06 pm

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#78 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:43 pm

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#79 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 17, 2008 8:41 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 22.1N 137.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 23.4N 141.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 200000UTC 23.5N 143.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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