WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:00 pm

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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:06 pm

12/0230 UTC 13.7N 140.6E T3.0/3.0 27W -- West Pacific
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#23 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 12, 2008 12:15 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 13.6N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 13.6N 136.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#24 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:54 am

JMA is much more bullish than JTWC on Dolphin: 75-kt typhoon in 72h:

WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 13.6N 140.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 13.7N 136.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 140600UTC 13.2N 132.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 150600UTC 13.3N 130.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
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#25 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 12, 2008 8:07 am

Up to 40 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 14.1N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 14.5N 134.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 141200UTC 14.0N 131.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 151200UTC 14.1N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 12, 2008 10:02 am

Image

Image

Always beware of the small storms.
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#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 12, 2008 12:54 pm

Looks to be about 55 kt right now.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:32 pm

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NRL: 45 knots
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:38 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 DEC 2008 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 14:16:59 N Lon : 138:16:14 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 983.3mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 3.8 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Center Temp : -80.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 12, 2008 4:27 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 122115

A. TROPICAL STORM 27W (DOLPHIN)

B. 12/2030Z

C. 14.3N

D. 137.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/18HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .70 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/1628Z 14.0N 138.8E MMHS

SMITH
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:22 pm

Image

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Dolphin looking more like a White Shark.
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#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 12, 2008 7:40 pm

Looks like a typhoon to me. Although there is no Dvorak measurement supporting 65 kt...
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 12, 2008 8:55 pm

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NRL: 55 knots
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 12, 2008 8:58 pm

12/2030 UTC 13.8N 137.5E T3.5/3.5 DOLPHIN -- West Pacific
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#35 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 12, 2008 9:32 pm

55 seems to make sense, although the eye feature may make a case for 60 kt.
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#36 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:55 am

698
WTPQ20 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 13.8N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 13.2N 132.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 150600UTC 13.1N 130.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 160600UTC 14.0N 129.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:36 am

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Far less organized right now.
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:49 am

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Fuel, not a problem for Dolphin.
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#39 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 13, 2008 10:46 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 13.9N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 14.1N 131.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 151200UTC 14.3N 130.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 161200UTC 16.0N 129.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
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#40 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:49 pm

Yeah I agree less organized for now, it is probably down to about 50 kt.
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