WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

#41 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Image

Image

Looking better now.
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#42 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:25 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 13.7N 132.7E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 13.4N 130.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 160000UTC 14.3N 129.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 170000UTC 15.7N 128.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 13, 2008 10:31 pm

It's probably back to its old strength as a high-end tropical storm.
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#44 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:52 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 13.7N 131.6E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 13.8N 130.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 161200UTC 14.4N 129.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 171200UTC 15.7N 128.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

#45 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:38 am

Image

Image
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#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:04 am

14/1430 UTC 13.6N 130.8E T4.0/4.0 DOLPHIN -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

#47 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 14, 2008 2:29 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 13.7N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 170NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 13.9N 129.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 161800UTC 14.2N 128.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 171800UTC 14.9N 127.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Image
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#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:16 pm

14/2030 UTC 13.8N 130.4E T4.0/4.0 DOLPHIN -- West Pacific
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#49 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:08 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 13.7N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 13.8N 129.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 170000UTC 14.6N 128.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 180000UTC 16.5N 127.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Also now a typhoon from JTWC.

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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:40 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 150013

A. TROPICAL STORM 27W (DOLPHIN)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 13.8N

D. 130.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 57A/PBO CCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS 1.05 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SMITH
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:09 pm

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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:18 pm

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#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:35 pm

15/0230 UTC 14.0N 130.5E T4.5/4.5 DOLPHIN -- West Pacific
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#54 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:48 pm

Someone needs to update the title.
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#55 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 4:02 am

An eye on IR...

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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:07 am

15/0830 UTC 14.9N 130.6E T5.0/5.0 DOLPHIN -- West Pacific
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#57 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:12 am

Uh... it's still an STS. Why does the title say "Typhoon"? It's only a JTWC typhoon.

WTPQ20 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0822 DOLPHIN (0822)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 14.6N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 15.5N 129.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 170600UTC 16.3N 128.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 180600UTC 17.6N 128.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:39 am

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I think this typhoon's intensity is being understimated.
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#59 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:50 am

JMA fix is coming out in 10 minutes or so... we'll see then.
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#60 Postby Cookie » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:01 am

didn't think it would become a cat 1
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