SIO: Ex-CINDA - Tropical Depression: Discussion

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SIO: Ex-CINDA - Tropical Depression: Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:10 pm

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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:03 pm

15/0230 UTC 9.4S 70.8E T2.5/2.5 96S -- Southwest Indian

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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:04 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 72.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:07 pm

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#5 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:34 am

Now Zone of Disturbed Weather 04R.

WTIO21 FMEE 151230
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 15/12/2008 A 1200 UTC.
NUMERO: 001/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 15/12/2008 A 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 4 1003 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.4S / 69.8E
(NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1200 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU
'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20 KT ET MER AGITEE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT
25 KT ET MER FORTE JUSQUE 260 DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 16/12/2008 A 00 UTC:
9.9S / 68.3E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 16/12/2008 A 12 UTC:
10.2S / 66.1E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION PERSISTE DEPUIS PLUS DE 24 HEURES MAIS CE SYSTEME
S'ORGANISE TRES LENTEMENT.
IL N'EST PAS PREVU S'INTENSIFIER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT DURANT LES PROCHAINES
72 HEURES.
L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS
REGULIERS.
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#6 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:42 am

WTIO30 FMEE 151237

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20082009
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4

2.A POSITION 2008/12/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4S / 69.8E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/12/16 00 UTC: 09.9S/68.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/12/16 12 UTC: 10.2S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/12/17 00 UTC: 10.4S/64.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 10.7S/63.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 10.9S/62.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 11.2S/61.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=1.5
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED
OVER THE AREA, LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARDS BUT NOT
EQUATORWARDS, AND MID LEVELS LACK OF HUMIDITY. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
ANALYSE THIS LOW. THEY TRACK THIS LOW GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHOUT
DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 8:21 pm

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 8:21 pm

ZCZC 498
WTIO20 FMEE 160026
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/12/2008
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/12/2008 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4S / 68.6E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST
) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHXESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS, LOCALLY REACHING 25
KT
AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/12/16 AT 12 UTC:
9.6S / 67.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2008/12/17 AT 00 UTC:
9.8S / 65.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THUNDERY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW HAS BUILT CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE
BUT REMAINS VERY SCATTERED AND THE SYSTEM BARELY ORGANIZES.
STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 72
HOURS
.
AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=
NNNN
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#9 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:02 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 160026

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/4/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4

2.A POSITION 2008/12/16 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4S / 68.6E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST
)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/12/16 12 UTC: 09.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/12/17 00 UTC: 09.8S/65.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 10.1S/64.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 10.4S/63.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 10.8S/62.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 11.2S/60.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BUILT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE BUT IS FLUCTUATING AND
REMAINS SCATTERED. THE SYSTEM BARELY ORGANIZES.
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARDS BUT WEAK EQUATORWARDS, LOW LEVEL
INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARDS BUT NOT EQUATORWARDS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW. THEY TRACK THIS LOW
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES, WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 15, 2008 10:20 pm

16/0230 UTC 9.1S 68.4E T2.0/2.0 96S -- Southwest Indian
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 7:37 am

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 7:38 am

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#13 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 16, 2008 9:10 am

Tropical Disturbance 4:

WTIO30 FMEE 161226

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/4/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4

2.A POSITION 2008/12/16 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8S / 67.6E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/12/17 00 UTC: 10.3S/67.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 11.1S/66.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 11.8S/65.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 12.6S/64.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 13.2S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/12/19 12 UTC: 13.4S/62.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0

OVERALL CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED TODAY (CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH AN
AVERAGE 3/10 CURVED BAND). 1010Z TRMM IMAGERY REVEALS A MID LEVEL CENTER
AROUND 9.8S/68E EAST OF THE LLCC, THAT IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE 37 GHZ NEAR
9.8S/67.7E.
CURRENT MOTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS AN ESTIMATED: 220/5.

THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARDS BUT WEAK EQUATORWARDS, LOW LEVEL
INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARDS BUT REMAINS MINIMAL EQUATORWARDS
ALTHOUGHT IT HAS SLIGHTY IMPROVED TODAY.

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW. TRACKS FROM THE 00Z RUN HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY ON THE LEFT BUT GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED: THIS
LOW SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER.
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Re: SIO: Invest 96S

#14 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 10:31 am

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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:43 pm

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Looking much better.
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 3:24 pm

ZCZC 245
WTIO30 FMEE 161814
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4
2.A POSITION 2008/12/16 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1S / 67.3E
(TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/12/17 06 UTC: 10.8S/66.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/12/17 18 UTC: 11.5S/65.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/12/18 06 UTC: 12.5S/64.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/12/18 18 UTC: 13.1S/64.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/12/19 06 UTC: 13.4S/63.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/12/19 18 UTC: 13.4S/62.3E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE POSITION'S TILT EXISTING BETWEEN THE 37GHZ AND 85GHZ CHANNELS ON
TRMM
16/1010Z SWATH SEEMS NOT TO BE SO OBVIOUS ANYMORE (CF 16/1357Z
SSMI/F13
AND 16/1448Z SSMIS/F16), SO DOES NOT BEEN SHOWED ON METEOSAT7 VISIBLE
ANIMATION.
LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN IN CONSEQUENCE LOCATED UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELL EXISTING SINCE 16/1500Z.
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD, LOW
LEVEL
INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARD BUT REMAINS MINIMAL EQUATORWARD
ALTHOUGHT
IT HAS SLIGHTY IMPROVED TODAY.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW. TRACKS FROM THE 00Z RUN HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY ON THE LEFT BUT GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED:
THIS
LOW SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS
BEFORE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER.
SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STAGE.=
NNNN
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 6:26 pm

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SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 162130
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S 67.8E TO 12.8S 65.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 67.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 69.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
161734Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE TO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 172130Z.//
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 7:39 pm

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#19 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 16, 2008 8:03 pm

Time to rename the thread, it's now Tropical Depression 04R.

WTIO30 FMEE 170025

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2008/12/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 66.9E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 11.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 12.7S/65.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 13.3S/64.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 13.7S/63.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/12/19 12 UTC: 14.1S/62.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/12/20 00 UTC: 14.4S/61.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CELL EXISTING SINCE 16/1500Z HAS PROBABLY ALLOWED TO
INTENSIFY WITHIN THE RECENT PAST 6 HOURS.
TRMM 16/2001Z SWATH CONFIMRS AN EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
UNDER THE MAIN CLUSTER (CF 37H)
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD, LOW LEVEL
INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARD BUT REMAINS WEAK EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS THEN RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
NORTHERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER ON THE FRONT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
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HURAKAN
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 16, 2008 8:26 pm

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NRL: TC 04S
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