MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

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Pedro Fernández
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MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#1 Postby Pedro Fernández » Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:23 pm

Once again, we've got another possible case of MEDICANE over the Islas Baleares today:
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:52 pm

looks more like a naked circulation
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#3 Postby Pedro Fernández » Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:58 pm

Yep, by the moment.............

Cloud pattern is not yet well defined, but GFS model is forecasting a shallow warming of the core of the low, and windshear is around 5-10 KT (CIMSS). Some tropical characteristics seem to be appearing little by little...
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#4 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:47 am

An increase in tropical like cyclones?

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yesterday on the Balearic Islands:

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Today:

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Warm core..

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Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:28 am, edited 16 times in total.
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:51 am

that looks like it MIGHT be a TD or a weak TS. Does not look frontal based upon those sat images
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#6 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:09 pm

At this moment

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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#7 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Dec 17, 2008 5:29 pm

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Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#8 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:27 am

From Sat24 today night:

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In This moment:
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Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Fri Dec 19, 2008 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#9 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:10 am

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Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Dec 19, 2008 10:19 am

it probably was a tropical storm looking at the sats. Likely is ET now though
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#11 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 19, 2008 3:46 pm

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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#12 Postby senorpepr » Sat Dec 20, 2008 3:58 pm

I'm still not convinced it was tropical. Observational data doesn't really lean in that direction. Just the remnant low off of the tail end of an occlusion. It's a pretty common feature this time of year.
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#13 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:49 pm

senorpepr wrote:It's a pretty common feature this time of year.


If is it a pretty common,you have another example of these cyclones with eyes,high convection in the center and warm core?
many thanks..

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Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Dec 21, 2008 1:48 am

senorpepr wrote:I'm still not convinced it was tropical. Observational data doesn't really lean in that direction. Just the remnant low off of the tail end of an occlusion. It's a pretty common feature this time of year.


We would have to look at the in situ upper air data (if there is any). However, from the sats, we do have fairly deep convection near the center and this is associated with tightly wrapping spiral bands. If this were non-tropical, wouldn't we see the convection farther from the center? Possibly subtropical, but I am having a hard time seeing ET, unless there is some data I have not seen
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Re: MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

#15 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sun Dec 21, 2008 6:41 am

Many times some maps show cold cores while other, more detailed, display warm cores;
sometimes maps indicate wind of 30 Knotes instead of 50 knotes
(the Quickscat have only 1 or 2 passas for day),and levels of pressure which in fact are much lower.
Basically European maps can't show the details of those small systems,
as they are not up to look at the basic elements of tropical systems or tropical like sistems.

K.Emanuel: cutoff cold low is an ideal embryon in which a tropical-like cyclone can be produced.

Radar Sardinia (Sardegna-Italia)

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